As Trump weighs action, Xi and Putin subtly warn against escalation in Iran-Israel crisis: CNN analysis

As the United States weighs possible involvement in a deepening conflict between Israel and Iran, China and Russia are stepping forward with calls for restraint — positioning themselves as responsible global actors urging de-escalation.

That was the image projected during a Thursday phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to an analysis published by CNN.

Amid speculation that US President Donald Trump may join Israel in military action against Iran, the escalating hostilities have given Beijing and Moscow another platform to challenge US dominance in global affairs.

According to the Kremlin's readout, both leaders denounced Israel's military actions, describing them as violations of international law and the UN Charter — a criticism made despite Russia's own contentious actions in Ukraine, which China continues to avoid condemning.

China's summary of the call took a more cautious tone. Xi Jinping stopped short of outright condemnation, but urged all parties — particularly Israel — to halt hostilities and prevent wider regional fallout. In a subtle message to Washington, Xi emphasised the role of "major powers" in stabilising the situation rather than inflaming it.

For years, China has criticised the US for fueling instability in the Middle East. The latest Iran crisis has offered Chinese analysts a chance to amplify that narrative.

Liu Zhongmin, a Middle East specialist from Shanghai International Studies University, attributed the situation to the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, describing it as chaotic and transactional. In a state media commentary, Liu argued that Trump's leadership had weakened US influence in the region and diminished its credibility among allies.

Chinese social media commentators have also warned that Trump's decisions risk drawing the US into yet another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict — despite early promises in his second term to pivot away from the region and focus on China.

Beijing, which has no desire for regime change in Tehran, sees Iran as a strategic ally and counterbalance to US influence. Iran's geographic location and oil resources make it a critical partner in China's Belt and Road Initiative. The country's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gwadar port in Pakistan further enhances its strategic value for China.

China has deepened its ties with Iran in recent years, increasing cooperation in trade, security, and diplomacy. It welcomed Iran into multilateral alliances like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — both designed to offer alternatives to Western-led institutions.

In 2023, China played a key role in restoring diplomatic ties between longtime adversaries Saudi Arabia and Iran — a move that signalled Beijing's ambitions to act as a regional mediator.

Now, China is again offering to mediate, proposing four general steps to reduce tensions, including renewed dialogue on Iran's nuclear programme and enhanced protection of civilians.

Xi's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, has been in contact with officials from Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Oman, highlighting China's diplomatic outreach. However, Beijing's actual influence in the region remains limited. Its earlier efforts to mediate the Gaza conflict produced little tangible progress, and China's lack of deep-rooted political or military ties in the Middle East continues to constrain its role.

Even in Ukraine — a conflict where China holds significant leverage — Beijing has largely shielded Moscow diplomatically while presenting itself as a neutral arbiter. This dual role underscores China's broader strategy: advancing its global image as a peace-promoting power, while tactically aligning with partners that challenge Western influence.

Although it remains unclear how much Beijing can truly achieve in mediating between Israel and Iran, its public stance may nonetheless resonate in the Global South, where scpticism about American leadership is growing. Simply appearing as a voice of restraint may give China a symbolic diplomatic edge at a time of shifting global dynamics.