Dhaka's traffic crisis needs $59b solution by 2045, estimates new strategy

Infographic: TBS

Dhaka faces severe traffic congestion due to poor road density – only 2.52% compared to Tokyo's 16.3% – weak east-west links, and poor traffic management. To transform its public transport infrastructure and reduce congestion and emissions, the city needs $59 billion in investment by 2045, targeting an optimal Economic Internal Rate of Return of 22.3%.

This conclusion comes from the draft "Updated Revised Strategic Transport Plan (URSTP)", developed by the Asian Development Bank and Japan Fund for Prosperous and Resilient Asia and the Pacific for the government in March 2025.

It proposes an integrated system of road, rail, and metro networks, with safe infrastructure for walking and cycling. It outlines development strategies to improve infrastructure and ensure affordable public transport for all.

It also recommends legalising informal "paratransit" modes like rickshaws, CNGs, EasyBikes, and shared motorcycles, which currently form the largest transport system in Dhaka and account for 40% of household trips.

It mentions that CNG-run auto rickshaws emerged in 2002 after the government phased out two-stroke baby-taxis. Although demand surged, the number of CNG licences remained limited – about 13,000 by 2023 – leading to an explosion of unlicensed small vehicles.

This lack of formalisation led to unsafe services, lost government revenue, and unregulated fares. "Restrictions on IMT vehicle licences have never worked," the report observes, noting that enforcement failures created a black market and enabled widespread harassment and corruption.

According to Md Hadiuzzaman, transport expert and civil engineering professor at Buet, infrastructure alone is not enough. "One of Dhaka's core challenges is the absence of a sound land use plan," he said.

"High-rise buildings go up without assessing their traffic impact. And in the absence of a well-managed city bus system, unregulated vehicles multiply."

Transport network proposals

To support 18% of person trips by public transport, Dhaka must expand its road network from 1,656km to 2,337km by 2045, including 212km of expressways.

The plan includes seven radial expressways, such as the under-construction Dhaka Elevated Expressway and Dhaka-Ashulia Expressway, along with east-west, middle, and inner ring roads.

It also proposes six new MRT lines, including Gabtoli–Narayanganj and Kamalapur–Madanpur via Jatrabari. These lines will supplement the existing and ongoing MRT projects and require substantial investment.

The draft promotes public-private partnerships (PPPs) to fund this expansion, while noting challenges like weak contract management and lack of standardised agreements.

Although 79 PPP projects are in progress in Dhaka – three operational and eight under construction – the report urges stronger financial guarantees and streamlined approvals to attract investors.

Why 'paratransit' needs legalisation

In a city with no effective formal transit, "paratransit" or Intermediate Means of Transport (IMT) – fills the gap. The report estimates over 4 lakh vehicles operate in this category, providing work to even more people.

IMT includes rickshaws, EasyBikes, shared motorcycles, Lagunas, and CNGs, catering to two to 16 passengers on short routes.

All previous transport studies have called for lifting licence ceilings and letting market forces determine the supply of IMT vehicles.

The current lack of planning is partly due to insufficient data on vehicle numbers, routes, and their relationship with mass transit. As a result, vehicle designs remain unsafe, drivers unlicensed, and service standards inconsistent.

"Restrictions have failed and brought other harms: higher transport costs, lost revenue, and weakened regulatory control," the draft says.

It argues for formalising IMTs through licensing, regulation, and safety standards, while ensuring better working conditions for those employed in the sector.

Rickshaws still dominate

Despite modernisation attempts, rickshaws remain dominant – holding 30.1% of all trips in 2023 – because they suit Dhaka's short distances. Around 44% of all trips are under 1km, 62% are under 2km, and 80% are below 5km.

These distances are ideal for walking or rickshaws, but poor bus services have pushed many to rely on the costlier three-wheelers.

For most low-income city dwellers, buses remain the most affordable option – but their condition and performance have deteriorated.

Buses move at rickshaw speed

Buses in Dhaka now move as slowly as rickshaws. A 2023 survey by the Bus Route Rationalisation Project found the average bus speed on Route 21 – from Ghatarchar to Kanchpur via Motijheel – was just 9.7kmph. This is well below the 14 kph average in global cities like London, Paris, and Kuala Lumpur.

In peak hours, bus speed drops to 5–7 kph – slower than a brisk walk. This poor speed limits a bus's daily range to 120–140 km, hurting profitability. Operators then cut costs, resulting in old, overcrowded, and poorly maintained buses.

Unsurprisingly, bus usage declined from 28.5% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2023, while motorcycles surged from 3.4% to 9.5%. Without urgent reforms, the report warns of a bleak future for Dhaka's bus services.

While many cities solved similar issues through dedicated bus lanes, Dhaka has almost none. Buses are often lower priority than private cars. The report criticises the failed pilot of the Bus Route Rationalisation scheme and urges immediate improvements.

Urgent need for bus priority

To stop the shift from buses to cars and bikes, the city must act fast. Once users switch to motorcycles, they rarely return to public transport. The draft urges the introduction of bus priority corridors using low-cost measures like signal priority, bus-only streets, and parking control – similar to London's 'red routes'.

The Rapid Pass smart card, now used in the metro, should be expanded to these corridors. A new body – tentatively BUSNET – could manage route operations, contracting qualified firms via competitive bidding. Fare collection should be handled separately to avoid corruption and inefficiencies.

The report acknowledges that bus priority schemes will face political pushback and require strong leadership and public commitment. However, it insists these reforms are essential for building a transport system fit for a growing megacity.

Prof Hadiuzzaman argues the solution lies in making public transport reliable and attractive. "As long as people aren't offered a secure alternative, the demand for illegal vehicles will persist," he said.

"We must prioritise a modern city bus network designed to discourage unauthorised modes. If people stop using them, they'll vanish without coercion."

He estimates at least 70% of Dhaka's residents must shift to public transport to ensure safe, orderly, and efficient mobility. Achieving that would require a state-run network of buses and trains staffed by trained professionals, supported by decentralised development and integrated land use planning.

Urban rail, coordination

The draft recommends updating the Joydebpur–Tongi–Narayanganj commuter rail into a high-frequency service, operating every 5–10 minutes. Until underpasses are built to replace level crossings, it suggests limited stops and less frequent services.

It identifies a key challenge: five ministries and multiple agencies currently manage urban transport independently. This leads to overlapping responsibilities and poor coordination, causing delays and cost overruns in projects like MRT, BRT, and expressways.

To resolve this, the draft recommends forming a central body – Dhaka Urban Transport Authority (DUTA) – with legal and financial powers to oversee all transport initiatives and ensure proper integration.

"This coordination is essential," Hadiuzzaman said. "Without harmonised transport, land use, and investment strategies, Dhaka will remain stuck. Flyovers and metros cannot solve congestion on their own."

He also stressed the importance of decentralisation. "We've focused so much on developing Dhaka that the city itself is breaking down. We must invest in other cities to generate employment outside the capital. Otherwise, the migration pressure will continue."