Houthi ceasefire followed US intel showing militants sought off-ramp

Highlights:

• US Central Command recommended a campaign lasting at least 8 months, US official says
• Iran played significant role in encouraging Houthi negotiations, two sources say
• Experts had doubted Houthis would agree to US demands

Days before a surprise US ceasefire agreement with Houthis, US intelligence started picking up indications the Yemeni fighters were looking for an exit after seven weeks of relentless US bombings, four US officials said.

Houthi leaders began reaching out sometime around the first weekend in May to US allies in the Middle East, two of the officials said.

"We started getting intel that the Houthis had had enough," one of the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to recount the internal discussions about the intelligence, which haven't been previously reported.

Interviews with current and former US officials, diplomatic sources and other experts show how a campaign that the US military's Central Command once envisioned might stretch through most of this year came to abrupt halt on May 6 after 52 days, allowing President Donald Trump to declare victory before heading to the Middle East this week.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have disrupted commerce by launching hundreds of drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza.

Two sources said Iran played an important role in encouraging the Iran-aligned Houthis to negotiate, as Tehran pursues its own talks with the United States over its nuclear program aimed at ending crippling US sanctions and preventing a military strike by the US or Israel.

But the culmination of the ceasefire accord underscored how quickly the Trump administration moved on initial intelligence to secure what in March seemed unthinkable to many experts in the short term: a Houthi declaration it would stop striking US ships. Trump's unconventional approach included bypassing close US ally Israel, which is not covered by the agreement, and which was not told ahead of time, an Israeli official and a person familiar with the matter said.

The Houthis weren't the only ones feeling pressure. The bombing campaign has also been costly to the United States, which has burned through munitions and lost two aircraft and multiple drones.

After the early May tips on the Houthis, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth initiated a series of meetings at the White House on Monday morning, and concluded there was a window of opportunity with the Iran-aligned fighters, one of the officials said.

Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who was already leading US negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, worked through Omani mediators and held indirect talks with the chief Houthi negotiator and spokesperson, Mohammed Abdulsalam, two US officials told Reuters.

Abdulsalam was in turn in contact with the Houthis' top leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, one of the officials said.

A framework agreement was reached later on Monday, one of the officials said.

By Tuesday, May 6, Trump was ready to announce an accord, declaring the Houthis had capitulated.

"They said please don't bomb us any more and we're not going to attack your ships," he told reporters.

Asked about Reuters' findings, the Houthis' Abdulsalam said the group communicated only via Oman and agreed to the ceasefire because the Houthis had been responding to the United States defensively.

"So if they stopped their aggression, we stopped our response," Abdusalam told Reuters, declining further comment.

A spokesperson for Witkoff did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

OFF-RAMP

Each side saw some benefit to striking a deal. For the Houthis, it offered an off-ramp that could allow them to rebuild and relieve pressure that, over months or years, could have strategically put them at risk, US officials and experts say.

Washington's allies in the region also wanted out, one source said.

"Because if the Houthis were under more pressure, their response was going to be to fire on the Saudis or the Emiratis," one person familiar with the matter said.

At the start of the US campaign on March 15, al-Houthi was defiant, saying in a televised address that his fighters would target US ships in the Red Sea as long as the US continued its attacks on Yemen.

At the time, it appeared the United States might be locked in a costly standoff with a group known for its resiliency, as US forces used up munitions during more than 1,100 strikes. Hegseth said the US would only halt its bombings once the Houthis agreed to stop striking US ships and drones.

The Houthis shot down seven US MQ-9 drones -- each worth tens of millions of dollars -- since Trump took office.

The Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, whose deployment in the Middle East was extended by Hegseth, lost two fighter jets, including one falling from the deck of the ship after the massive vessel was forced to make a hard turn because of a Houthi attack in the area.

Some analysts questioned the wisdom of the US strategy. The Houthis had already endured nearly a decade of heavy strikes launched by a Saudi-led military coalition, but were able to rebuild to the point where they could threaten the US Navy and Israel.

One of the US officials said a turning point for the Houthis came on April 17, when the United States targeted the Houthi-controlled Ras Isa fuel terminal on the Red Sea coast.

It was the deadliest strike to that point, with the Houthi-run Health Ministry saying 74 people were killed. The Pentagon has not commented on specific numbers of people killed in individual strikes.

"That (damaged) their ability to conduct operations and generate revenue," the official said, describing efforts to squeeze the group economically.

Asked for comment, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told Reuters Trump's ceasefire was "another good deal for America and our security."

"The objective at the outset was securing the freedom of navigation, and that was achieved through the restoration of American deterrence."

Pentagon spokesperson Marine Colonel Chris Devine said in response to Reuters' findings that the US military campaign successfully degraded Houthi capabilities and "set the stage for the President to achieve a ceasefire agreement."

LONGER CAMPAIGN PROPOSED

Trump's campaign to weaken the Houthis came after failed attempts to deter and degrade the group during the Biden administration.

The US military's Central Command recommended a campaign, lasting at least eight months, that would include a gradual shift to more targeted strikes from the broader ones that took place in the first few weeks, the official added.

The bombings cost well over $1 billion, officials say, and killed a significant number of mid-tier Houthi fighters who trained lower-level forces, as well as destroyed multiple command facilities, air defense systems, weapons manufacturing and storage facilities.

They also destroyed stocks of anti-ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, aerial drones and drone ships.

But the strikes didn't cut Houthi supply lines or fray higher level leadership, and three experts cautioned the group may rapidly recover.

The group's persistent attacks on Israel also demonstrate that it retains significant capability, despite the US campaign. Those have continued after the May 6 ceasefire announcement.

US officials and other sources also caution that it is unclear how long the ceasefire will hold, and if the Houthis will continue to see the United States and Israel as separate threats, especially as Israel retaliates against Yemen.

"Proxies of Iran and Iran don't distinguish between what is Israel and what is the United States," one person familiar with the situation said.

"Their view is that anything Israel does is enabled by the United States. So at some point, I think the Houthis will see themselves as trying to hold the United States accountable."