'No overexpectation soon': What Indian analysts say about Dhaka-Delhi ties after BNP's return

The sweeping mandate the BNP won in the 13th parliamentary elections has not only brought about a decisive shift in the country's politics after one and a half years of turbulence but also opened an opportunity to make a fresh beginning to refashion ties with India.

The issues that bedevil bilateral ties, like border killings, cross-border militancy, sharing of trans-border rivers and safety of minority communities, are likely to resurface more prominently in the coming months under the BNP government, Indian foreign policy experts feel.

Indian analysts are unanimous in holding that the new government faces the challenge of navigating the big power rivalry in Bangladesh, including China, the US, India. Then there is Pakistan.

Soon after the Bangladesh elections results were announced and it was clear that BNP was on course to regain power, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first foreign head of government to reach out to Tarique Rahman by congratulating him and reaffirming India's commitment to a "democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh."

While Modi signalled an intent to maintain engagement despite policy differences, the BNP reacted positively.

In his first public address after the election results were declared, Tarique Rahman said Bangladesh's foreign policy would be guided by the principle that the people of his country come first, stressing that national interest would determine the country's external engagement, including with India.

Riva Ganguly Das, India's former high commissioner to Bangladesh, told TBS that the fact that the BNP has been voted back to power in an election which was by and large free from controversy "is itself a positive development."

Hasina's presence in India won't deter Dhaka-Delhi ties: Fakhrul

She suggested both Dhaka and Delhi should start mending the ties by talking to each other formally and informally to build up trust and prioritise the economic component of the relationship by focussing on trade and connectivity, people-to-people contacts by removing restrictions on cross-border business, movement of trains and resumption of liberalized visa, including for tourists.

Riva, however, said since India-Bangladesh relation "is a very sensitive issue and passions can get ignited at the slightest provocation," both sides should shun "overexpectations" from each other in the short run and must move in a calibrated manner by talking about "low-hanging fruits" like certain measures on the economic and people-to-people contact fronts.  

Asked if BNP could be constrained in its approach towards India by the enhanced parliamentary strength of Jamaat-e-Islami, she said the allegation levelled by a section that Tarique Rahman returned to the country after striking a deal with India failed to cut any ice with the voters in Bangladesh. More than Jamaat, it is the electoral performance of its ally NCP that should be worrying for India.

Riva said India sending Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri with Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to Tarique Rahman's swearing in as PM is itself a significant indicator of New Delhi's intent to start engagement with the new government in Bangladesh. "A foreign secretary is not normally sent to such formal swearing-in events. So, it is not without a reason that he is going to Dhaka," she added.  

Harsh V Pant, vice president of New Delhi-based foreign policy think-tank the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said that externally, Tarique Rahman must navigate a tightening geopolitical contest in the Bay of Bengal without compromising Bangladesh's strategic autonomy. "Bangladesh stands at a moment of possibility — and peril."

The BNP, according to him, "appears intent on multi-alignment rather than overt tilting, maintaining functional ties with China, India, the US and even Pakistan while avoiding strategic overdependence."

He said foreign policy under Rahman "is likely to be recalibrated rather than revolutionised. The BNP's articulation of an "economy-based" diplomacy suggests a more transactional posture, anchored in national interest rather than ideological affinity."

"The BNP's formal call for Sheikh Hasina's extradition introduces an immediate diplomatic sensitivity," Pant said.

He further said the slew of unresolved bilateral issues like border management, allegations of "push-ins" and water-sharing disputes over Teesta and Ganges "are likely to test the resilience of the relationship."

At the same time, India's concerns over the protection of Hindus in Bangladesh will remain salient, said Pant, who also opines that "the relationship may become more transactional and less emotive, but not necessarily adversarial."

Shaikh Mujibur Rehman, who teaches at Jamia Millia Islamia University in Delhi and is the author of a forthcoming book "Dhaka Is Burning," said Tarique Rahman's challenge will be to balance Bangladesh's relations with "key regional and global actors, particularly India, China and Pakistan."

Rehman said "repairing" ties with India must be Tarique Rahman's "top priority, perhaps even drawing lessons from aspects of Hasina's earlier diplomacy." According to the Jamia Millia Islamia academic, the Yunus government's "shift toward closer ties with China and Pakistan has not gone down well with India."

Amitabh Mattoo, Dean and Professor of School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said the BNP has traditionally talked about a nationalism attentive to sovereignty, identity and "strategic distance" from India but "under Tarique Rahman, that tradition now enters a different phase."

Recent statements by Rahman suggest "greater attentiveness to institutional process, economic stability and calibrated foreign engagement", he opined.

Sumit Ganguly, a leading South Asian affairs expert, said it is "too early to offer "definitive answers" to questions regarding the future foreign policy direction of the new BNP dispensation, particularly with regard to evolution of relations with India, Dhaka's ties with Pakistan and if it will it continue to maintain warm relations with China.