Why we suck at evaluating risk | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Get the Paper
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Friday
July 18, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Get the Paper
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
FRIDAY, JULY 18, 2025
Why we suck at evaluating risk

Thoughts

Azwad Yusha
01 June, 2021, 11:55 pm
Last modified: 02 June, 2021, 11:32 am

Related News

  • Airlines struggle to acquire planes amid global supply shortage
  • Operation Assad: The air mission to smuggle the Syrian despot's valuables
  • Canada hits US auto sector with tariffs, mirroring trump’s move
  • Chattogram Port Authority seeks to purchase five land cruisers from cars imported by former MPs
  • India to cut tariffs on 30 products including luxury cars and bikes, before Indian PM’s US trip

Why we suck at evaluating risk

Why do we think cars are safer than planes? The answer is, our brains have flawed processes of risk assessment

Azwad Yusha
01 June, 2021, 11:55 pm
Last modified: 02 June, 2021, 11:32 am
Azwad Yusha/TBS Sketch
Azwad Yusha/TBS Sketch

How much do you value your life? Is it infinite? No, it can't be because you engage in possibly fatal activities all the time. For instance, you go to work every day, at least you did before lockdown. Every time you step outside on the road, there is a 1 in 55,000 chance that you will be a victim of a road accident, and a 1 in 700,000 chance of getting struck by lightning (ok that is pretty unlikely). So why do you go outside?

This is called risk perception - the balance between positives and negatives. You decide that the positive - you going to work - outweighs the negative - the chance of you ending up in a morgue. 

Let me ask you another question. What do you think is safer, driving a car or air travel? 

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

Most people think cars are safer than planes. Just think of all the horrible plane crashes in the recent past. Malaysia Airlines flight 17, gunned down over Ukraine. Pakistan Airlines flight 8303 crashed in Karachi. 257 people died in plane crashes in 2019, as stated by BBC. That's a lot, right? 

But, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 38,800 people died from car accidents that year in the US alone. You may say this is because a lot more people drive cars. So, a better unit is death per billion passenger miles, which is 11.3 for cars, and a measly 0.07 for planes, as claimed by NHTSA and FAA, respectively. Ironically, the deadliest part of air travel is the commute to the airport.

So, why are our risk perceptions so wrong? Why do we think cars are safer than planes? The answer is, our brains have flawed processes of risk assessment. What we fear is fatal, and fatal is very different from what we perceive as fearful. 

These are some of the rules of our risk evaluation system, taken from a study of attitudes towards risks by the University of Oregon and the University of Texas.

  1. The more people are exposed to a  particular risk, the less the public will accept it. The risk tolerance for experimental medicine, which is given to a handful of people, is far higher than a vaccine, which is given to millions of people.
  2. We tend to accept higher risks for voluntary activities than involuntary ones. According to WHO, we are roughly 1,000 times more tolerant of voluntary risks than involuntary risks. For example, in society, 1 death in 1,000 due to alcohol is acceptable, but for household water, it is 1 in 1,000,000, as people can stop drinking, but cannot avoid using water.
  3. We tend to use disease as a sort of marker to measure risk. Perhaps we have grown accustomed to the fact that our deaths will be by disease, so doing anything riskier than disease is unnatural, because then we are more likely to die from that other activity than a disease. 
  4. "People fear what they don't understand." This famous quote is very true in the context of risk. The more we know about something, the less perceived risk is. Take nuclear power, for example. It was first introduced to the world in the form of atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In a 1970 survey, college students ranked thirty activities and technologies from most to least risky. Most of them ranked nuclear energy as the riskiest. In reality, it was about 20th on the list. Now that people know more about nuclear energy, perceived risk has gone down.
  5. The more exposure is given to a certain incident, the higher the perceived risk rises. A car accident doesn't get nearly as much attention as a plane crash. The Chernobyl disaster resulted in 4,000 deaths and has left drastic effects on generations to come, but this data is not presented side by side with the fact that 7 million people die due to air pollution each year.
  6. Our brains cannot comprehend risk through statistics. Paul Slovick, a researcher for the University of Oregon says, "Numbers are numbing to us. We don't value the 1000th death as much as the 1st one, though, in theory, they should be the same." This is why we tolerate natural disasters with little more concern than terrorist attacks. As Mother Teresa said, "If I look at the mass, I will never act. If I look at the one, I will."

These rules combine to create a simple fact -  as a species, we are terrible at perceiving risk. Life itself is risky, as we cannot reasonably know how risky a certain activity is.

Still, our flawed risk perception system averages out through time to line up with real risk. The only time when this is worth considering is when our decisions affect risk for others. In this case, perception is very dangerous, as it can eclipse science and fact. The COVID-19 pandemic is the perfect example of that. You not wearing a mask can and will affect those around you. Numbers do not lie. They are as close we can get to the handwriting of God.

Top News

cars / plane

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Governments often rely on foreign loans. Russia’s loans covered 90% of the Rooppur Nuclear Power plant project's cost. Photo: Collected
    Loan tenure for Rooppur plant extended 
  • Around 99% of the cotton used in Bangladesh’s export and domestic garment production is imported. Photo: Collected
    NBR withdraws advance tax on imports of cotton, man-made fibres
  • Chattogram-based Western Marine Shipyard Ltd has exported two tugboats—Ghaya and Khalid—to UAE-based Marwan Shipping Ltd, earning $1.6 million. The vessels were officially handed over at the Chittagong Boat Club on 17 July. Photo: Courtesy
    Refined sugar imports double in FY25 as duty cuts bite local refiners

MOST VIEWED

  • Bangladesh Bank buys $313m more in second dollar auction in three days
    Bangladesh Bank buys $313m more in second dollar auction in three days
  • Representational image. File Photo: Syed Zakir Hossain/TBS
    Malaysia grants Bangladeshi workers multiple-entry visas
  • The Chattogram Custom House building in Chattogram. File Photo: Collected
    Software slowdown disrupts customs operations nationwide
  • NCP leaders are seen getting on an armoured personnel carrier (APC) of the army to leave Gopalganj following attacks on their convoy after the party's rally in the district today (16 july). Photo: Focus Bangla
    NCP leaders leave Gopalganj in army's APC following attack on convoy, clashes between AL, police
  • Renata’s manufacturing standards win european recognition
    Renata’s manufacturing standards win european recognition
  • The supporters of local Awami League and Chhatra League locked in a clash with police following attacks on NCP convoy this afternoon (16 July). Photo: Collected
    Gopalganj under curfew; 4 killed as banned AL, police clash after attack on NCP leaders

Related News

  • Airlines struggle to acquire planes amid global supply shortage
  • Operation Assad: The air mission to smuggle the Syrian despot's valuables
  • Canada hits US auto sector with tariffs, mirroring trump’s move
  • Chattogram Port Authority seeks to purchase five land cruisers from cars imported by former MPs
  • India to cut tariffs on 30 products including luxury cars and bikes, before Indian PM’s US trip

Features

Illustration: TBS

20 years of war, 7.5m tonnes of bombs, 1.3m dead: How the US razed Vietnam to the ground

9h | The Big Picture
On 17 July 2024, Dhaka University campus became a warzone with police firing tear shells and rubber bullets to control the student movement. File Photo: Rajib Dhar/TBS

17 July 2024: Students oust Chhatra League from campuses, Hasina promises 'justice' after deadly crackdown

17h | Panorama
Abu Sayeed spread his hands as police fired rubber bullets, leading to his tragic death. Photos: Collected

How Abu Sayed’s wings of freedom ignited the fire of July uprising

2d | Panorama
Illustration: TBS

Open source legal advice: How Facebook groups are empowering victims of land disputes

3d | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

Why the conflicting claims over Gopalganj autopsies?

Why the conflicting claims over Gopalganj autopsies?

10h | TBS Stories
Gopalganj violence in international media

Gopalganj violence in international media

11h | TBS World
The Philippines has become a laboratory for China's disinformation propaganda

The Philippines has become a laboratory for China's disinformation propaganda

11h | TBS World
Gopalganj clash: Army urges not to be misled by rumors

Gopalganj clash: Army urges not to be misled by rumors

13h | TBS Today
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net