Yunus' iftar diplomacy kindled hope among Rohingyas, but will this help the repatriation efforts?

Ro Yassin Abdumonab, a Rohingya refugee community worker and photographer, attended the iftar programme in the refugee camp hosted by Professor Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh. António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, attended the programme as a guest of honor. 

"The way Muhammad Yunus hoped we would be able to celebrate Eid in our homes next year kindled a lot of hope among us. I was personally highly motivated," Yassin said.

Over a million Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar, like Yassin, have been in deep apprehension over the past couple of weeks after USAID fund cuts and the World Food Programme's announcement that food rations may be reduced to only $6 per person per month due to fund shortages from April. 

The UN Secretary-General's trip to Bangladesh and his historic iftar address in the Rohingya camp are considered important steps in bringing the global spotlight back to the plight of the Rohingya people.

Warning of an 'unmitigated disaster' due to 'unacceptable' fund cuts by the international community, Guterres said, "I urge the international community not to reduce support for Rohingya refugees. They must step up and guarantee the well-being of the refugees."

"I must confess that we are on the verge of a deep humanitarian crisis due to the announced cuts by several countries in their financial assistance. We are facing a dramatic risk – food rations for the Rohingya refugees may be reduced to just 40 percent of what is needed in 2025," he said.

The evolving crisis with food and other assistance in the camps comes at a time when the situation in Myanmar is growing more difficult, with the Arakan Army holding power in Rakhine State and showing no signs of being kind to the Rohingyas.

The ethnic armed group now controls the entire border with Bangladesh, while Dhaka has only recently acknowledged some communication with them, with no visible improvement or effective strategy to engage in sight.

In such desperate times, Bangladesh leader Muhammad Yunus not only had a breakthrough with the Guterres event but also kindled hope among millions like Yassin when he said, "May we pray to Allah that next Eid, you can celebrate in your own homes in Myanmar." Yunus emphasised that the Rohingyas want the world to hear their plea.

For Yunus' government, the Guterres' programme in Bangladesh and the scheduled visit to China later this month mark a significant diplomatic achievement and create grounds for discussion of repatriation with China.

But how realistic is the hope of repatriation within a year?

"Professor Yunus certainly wanted to draw the international community's attention to the plight of the Rohingyas. His hope was admirable, but perhaps overly optimistic. Nonetheless, hope remains important," said Professor ASM Ali Ashraf, Chairman of the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka.

The professor reminded of the preconditions for repatriation: it must be safe, dignified, informed, and voluntary.

In terms of safety, they would need to return to Rakhine State, which, at present, offers no safety. To ensure safety, the right conditions must be created – conditions that guarantee protection and stability for those returning.

The voluntariness of the process is also crucial. Are the refugees truly willing to return? The Arakan Army currently holds significant power, and they have yet to take any clear steps to facilitate the return of the Rohingyas. Moreover, it's essential to listen to the voices of the Rohingyas, particularly regarding their rights, such as citizenship. The Arakan Army has not indicated any willingness to address these concerns.

"Repatriation cannot be forced; it must be carried out in a dignified manner. Even if repatriation is possible, it will likely take time," Ali Ashraf said. 

But could something miraculous happen? 

Ali Ashraf doesn't rule it out. 

"For instance, when the National Unity Government (NUG) was formed, they initially spoke about recognising the rights of the Rohingyas. If a coalition of anti-junta forces were to come together and agree on the rights of the Rohingyas, and if anti-Rohingya groups could reach a consensus on accepting them, there might be a possibility for progress. However, there are still too many uncertainties in this scenario."

The Rohingyas told Yunus yesterday that they have land in Rakhine and want to return to their homes; they don't want to remain a burden on Bangladesh. Guterres stressed that "The solution must be found in Myanmar."

The iftar programme with the refugees will thus remain a remarkable achievement for Bangladesh, where the UN chief also acknowledged the "enormous support" of the Bangladeshi people in sharing their land, forests, scarce water, and meager resources, and how these camps are on the frontlines of the climate crisis.

But will the iftar diplomacy materialise the hope it instilled in the Rohingya refugees?

For Yassin, hope and faith are everything.

"The people were very happy with Guterres and Yunus's appearance and their sincere approach to help us. I believe that if world leaders are sincere, not only the Rohingya crisis but many other crises around the world can be resolved," he said.

Masum Billah/Journalist. Illustration: TBS