What interest do China and Russia have in Venezuela?

The actions of the US fleet in the Caribbean are increasingly causing alarm. US warships not only have attacked alleged drug boats in their sights; since early December, they have also been targeting oil tankers.

Experts differ in their assessments of Venezuela's role in drug trafficking, but they all agree that oil exports are vitally important to the South American country. Venezuela's economy may be in tatters, but it is sitting on the world's largest known oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels.

It can safely be assumed that these mineral resources also play a role in the strategic considerations of the oil-friendly US president, Donald Trump. For his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, they act as a lubricant for foreign relations.

But the intensification of the US conflict with Venezuela cannot be explained by oil alone. There are numerous other interests at play. As well as the US, the other two great world powers, China and Russia, are pursuing their own aims in the country.

What are China's geopolitical aims in Venezuela?

Venezuelan oil recently constituted only 4% of Chinese oil imports, but that share has been increasing. The Reuters news agency quoted two market analysts who estimated that maximum daily import volumes will hit new highs this December.

China is set to import more than 600,000 barrels a day from Venezuela, the majority of its daily production. For China, Venezuela is an important oil source, primarily because it reinforces Beijing's energy independence amid the global tug-of-war over raw materials. Venezuela's Merey oil blend is particularly well-positioned to do this, as the West has sanctioned it.

In turn, a lot of Chinese money flows to Venezuela, including in the form of credits. Caracas is variously estimated to be indebted to Beijing to the tune of between $60 billion and $70 billion.

Venezuela is also a market for Chinese technology. Many of its armaments are Chinese-made, and the telecommunications infrastructure is substantially based on Chinese components.

In September, Maduro presented a new Huawei cellphone at a press conference in Caracas. He announced that the Chinese President Xi Jinping had personally gifted him the "best phone in the world" and that American intelligence services couldn't possibly hack it.

Venezuela's authoritarian-nationalist socialism is compatible with China's state ideology. By verbally condemning the US seizure of oil tankers, as it recently did, Xi's government can present itself as an ally. This presumably also serves to keep the United States busy in its own backyard.

For more than a decade now, US presidents have been more focused on the Indo-Pacific region, where China also wants to be the dominant power and is being increasingly aggressive in asserting its claim to Taiwan. It therefore plays into China's hands if the US is forced to devote more attention to the situation in Venezuela or Cuba.

What are Russia's interests in Venezuela?

Presumably, it is also advantageous for Russia to increase its influence over allies in Latin America, challenging US supremacy in the region. President Vladimir Putin first received a visit from the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in 2001, after which Russia became Venezuela's largest arms supplier. In 2008, Putin went to war with Georgia; the following year, Chavez supported Putin when Venezuela was one of only a few countries, along with Nicaragua and Nauru, to recognize the independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

After Chavez's death in 2013, Maduro tried to maintain the country's close relationship with Russia. His power was seriously threatened after the election in 2019, when the then-president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, declared himself the rightful interim president. Just minutes later, Guaido received the backing of the United States.

Already in his first term in office, Trump had spotted an opportunity to get rid of Maduro. But then Russia sent two military aircraft carrying soldiers and equipment.

"In a way, Moscow saved Maduro," Vladimir Rouvinski, a political scientist at Colombia's ICESI University, told DW. "For the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, the US was compelled to negotiate directly with Russia over a situation in Latin America."

In the current crisis, though, Rouvinski doesn't think Russia will support Maduro as decisively. So far, support from the Kremlin has been verbal only.

Where is the US headed?

In a post on Truth Social in mid-December, Trump demanded that Venezuela return all the "Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us." This could be a reference to expropriations when the Venezuelan oil industry was nationalized in 2007 — not all US companies were compensated. Only Chevron is still active in the country, by special arrangement.

For US companies, oil production in neighbouring Guyana is much more lucrative. Venezuela has also laid claim to Guyana's border region of Essequibo. As far as US oil interests are concerned, there are two strong arguments in favor of forcing Maduro from power.

In his first term, Trump significantly extended the sanctions imposed by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and initiated a first trial of strength with Maduro. His security advisor at the time, John Bolton, described Venezuela, along with Cuba and Nicaragua, as the "triangle of terror."

Bolton was fired by Trump when US support for Juan Guaido's failed to achieve its aim. But Trump still hopes to bring about regime change in Venezuela, and is more determined now than ever.

David Ehl is a reporter and editor with DW.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.