The upcoming budget: Some incoming indications and some reflections

Some indications have already emerged regarding the content and size of Bangladesh's upcoming budget. Various statements by the country's Finance Minister, along with directives from the Prime Minister concerning the budget, have also revealed parts of its possible contents.

These signals and directives have undoubtedly reassured many quarters, but at the same time, according to many observers, several questions and ambiguities still remain regarding different aspects of the upcoming budget. The government will need to clarify these issues further in the coming days. Moreover, there are also people who disagree with some of the probable budget proposals.

The first point that needs to be emphasised is that the discussions and conversations surrounding the budget clearly indicate that a development philosophy is there in the proposed budget for fiscal year 2026–27. That philosophy is "enhancing human well-being and improving people's quality of life."

This deserves appreciation for two reasons. First, every budget should ideally have a development vision. Without such a vision, a budget is nothing more than a balance sheet of income and expenditure. It is reassuring that this year's budget appears to have recognised that truth. Second, it is heartening that human well-being and human development have been identified as the guiding philosophy of Bangladesh's 2026–27 budget.

Human beings should be at the centre of development. Development of people, for people, and by the people is the ultimate goal of development. In a country like Bangladesh, this truth is even more relevant. Recognising human well-being and human development as the guiding philosophy of the budget is a timely step.

Bangladesh's budget for the fiscal year 2026–27 is being formulated at a time of crisis — one dimension of the crisis is domestic, and the other is global. Together, these pressures have placed Bangladesh under significant economic strain. Naturally, in such circumstances, discussions of an austere and cost-saving budget will arise. But one has to remember that while the country faces economic pressures at the macro level, ordinary people across the board are also struggling to cope with the crises affecting their daily lives.

Therefore, along with the task of tackling the macro crises, ensuring people's welfare and security is equally important. The current blueprint of the proposed budget promises to maintain a balance between these two concerns — ensuring people's welfare while maintaining fiscal restraint. This is both desirable and reassuring.

Indeed, this balance between the economy and people is extremely important. While trying to tighten the budget during difficult times, care must be taken not to put people's lives at risk. Budgets must not be balanced at the cost of unbalancing people's lives. 

In this context, the upcoming budget has put emphasis not only on austerity, but has also stressed welfare-oriented policies. It implies that this is not the time to reduce subsidies on food, fuel, or fertiliser, regardless of what the International Monetary Fund may suggest. Removing subsidies on food or fuel now would devastate the lives of ordinary people, and withdrawing fertiliser subsidies would put food security at risk.

However, there is no denying the fact that the heavy burden of subsidies has become almost unbearable for the Bangladesh economy and that reforms are necessary. But given the current realities, this is not the appropriate time for subsidy reforms, and for the time being, coping with the present crisis is far more urgent.

To improve people's well-being and quality of life, the budget identifies inflation control, employment generation, job creation, and economic growth as key measures. Each of these is important for people's well-being.

However, the question remains whether the targets set in these areas are realistic and practical. For example, the economic growth target for the next fiscal year has been set at 6.5%, while Bangladesh's current growth rate is only slightly above 3%. In the context of the present stagnation of the economy, sluggish investment, and a global slowdown, how realistic is the expectation that the country's growth will double within a year?

Similarly, it does not seem realistic to expect that, within a single fiscal year, Bangladesh's investment rate will rise to 31% of national income and revenue income to 10% of national income. It appears that ambition has outweighed practical thinking in setting these targets.

The upcoming budget also seems likely to place special emphasis on comprehensive social protection. In a welfare-oriented state system, this is extremely important. One major dimension of the proposed social protection framework is the establishment of a life-cycle–based social security system. Initially, the poor, the destitute, and marginalised groups will be included in this safety net, and the programme is expected to be implemented over the next five years.

One area where the budget still appears somewhat unclear is women's economic empowerment. Current budget discussions, directives, and proposals seem relatively silent regarding the expansion of women's employment, ensuring support services for working women, providing incentives for female entrepreneurs, offering loans and other facilities to women, and creating multidimensional training opportunities.

However, for the success of this initiative, clear strategies, transparent beneficiary targeting and selection, and precise financial estimates will be necessary. Beyond this life-cycle social protection framework, the budget is also expected to expand the social safety net through family cards, in line with the current government's election manifesto and commitments. About 4.8 million families will benefit, with direct beneficiaries numbering around 26 million people. This initiative will require approximately Tk145 billion in the 2026–27 fiscal year.

At the same time, special protection measures for persons with disabilities have also been highlighted in the social protection component of the budget. As a result, the protection of the rights of persons with disabilities and the provision of necessary services for them have become part of the budget discussions. Issues currently under consideration include specialised schools for people with disabilities and disability-friendly infrastructure in all institutions. These are not merely symbolic matters — they are essential components of building an inclusive society.

The budget's probable blueprint is also discussing allocations for the education and health sectors, with human well-being at the forefront. Efforts to make education more joyful are extremely important for the mental development of children and adolescents, and it is gratifying that the budget recognises that fact.

In this context, it would be beneficial if the budget included policies to address the excessive time children spend on digital devices and the harmful effects associated with it. This is crucial for the mental health of young people. As part of its human well-being approach, the budget stresses that children with special needs also require healthcare and rehabilitation services.

Safe healthcare for everyone must also be ensured. In this regard, various healthcare protection measures should be identified. Food security also plays a major role in human security, which requires support for the country's long-neglected agricultural sector. The budget outline includes provisions to continue agricultural production through support for farmers via the recently introduced Farmer Cards programme. This initiative will cost Tk14 billion and would benefit more than 22,000 farmers. The budget is also expected to include environmental protection measures and tree plantation programmes.

It has been reported that the budget is going to give priority to information and communication technology (ICT), technical education, training, and employment opportunities for workers abroad. Improving skills, fostering entrepreneurship, creating employment at home and abroad, and moving Bangladesh's economy to a higher level will enhance people's capabilities and livelihoods. Various indications suggest that these issues will receive importance in the upcoming budget as well.

One area where the budget still appears somewhat unclear is women's economic empowerment. Current budget discussions, directives, and proposals seem relatively silent regarding the expansion of women's employment, ensuring support services for working women, providing incentives for female entrepreneurs, offering loans and other facilities to women, and creating multidimensional training opportunities.

Likewise, there has been little discussion about women's safety, rights, and equality within the budget framework. This is unfortunate. A truly welfare-oriented budget cannot be created while overlooking women.

The upcoming budget reflects ambition in many areas, but it must also confront the realities of limited capacity. In the face of a crisis, the budget's toughest challenge will be managing various obstacles while balancing reform efforts with immediate economic pressures.