US-China summit exposes Trump's limits on Iran war, Taiwan

The high-profile Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping ended with bombastic, positive statements — especially from the Trump White House, which called the US president "the dealmaker-in-chief" — but with little info known about concrete deals between the two rival superpowers.

Trump praised Xi during the visit, calling him a "great leader" and "a man I respect greatly."

Addressing reporters at a press event alongside Xi, Trump also indicated that he and Xi "feel very similar" about the Iran war, which has been dominating global politics since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran in late February.

"We want that to end. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open," Trump said.  

This echoed Trump's previous claims of Xi offering to help broker a deal with Tehran and open the Strait of Hormuz.

Xi issues warning on Taiwan

The Chinese leader, however, did not mention Iran in his remarks to the press on Friday. Instead, Xi took the chance to warn of a potential conflict between China and the US if the two nations fail to cooperate. He highlighted the dispute over Taiwan, the self-ruled island which China sees as its own territory.

"The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,"  Xi said.

"If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy."

With the global economy in turmoil over the Strait of Hormuz, neither side seems willing to return to the bruising trade war of 2025.

The US president was accompanied by more than a dozen CEOs, including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Apple's Tim Cook and Tesla's Elon Musk.

On Friday, Trump touted "fantastic trade deals for both countries," without providing details.

Trump on the fence about selling weapons to Taipei

Joseph Bosco, a former China Country Desk Officer in the US Office of the Secretary of Defense, told DW that Xi was trying to "exploit Trump's obvious vulnerabilities at this point."

Trump "has the Iran war going on, which is not going according to his original plan. And I think Xi Jinping thought this is a good time to press very hard on the most important issue that they perceive, which is Taiwan," Bosco said.

Taiwanese authorities fear Beijing taking over the island by force, and rely heavily on US arms sales to maintain its defense capabilities. Although Washington officially severed its diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979, in accordance with its "One China" policy, the US also promised to "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character" under the Taiwan Relations Act. 

The US is currently preparing to sell $14 billion (just over €12 billion) in weapons to Taipei. But Trump delayed approving the package ahead of his meeting with Xi.

In an interview on Thursday, the same day Trump and Xi held a two-hour closed meeting in Beijing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the arms sales to Taiwan "did not feature primarily in today's discussion," but had been discussed in the past.

During his flight back to the US, Trump told reporters that he is yet to decide on the weapons' sale.

Is US ready to give ground on Taiwan?

With Trump inviting Xi to visit Washington in September, it's increasingly likely that the arms package will remain on Trump's table until then.  

"Perhaps there might be a desire within the administration to avoid roiling the waters before that, and any further arms sales might be deferred," said John Dotson, director at the Washington-based think tank Global Taiwan Institute.  

When asked if Trump and Xi specifically discussed American arms sales to Taiwan on Thursday, Guo Jiakun, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said that "China's opposition to US arms sales to China's Taiwan region is consistent and clear." 

Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, also believes that Xi's potential visit could interfere with US arms sales. 

"The obvious trade here was Taiwan for Iran," he told DW. "And I don't mean that like the US gets Iran and China gets Taiwan, but America cooperates more on Taiwan if China cooperates more on Iran."

Though Xi didn't mention the Middle East in his Friday remarks to the press, China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the conflict "has no reason to continue" and that "shipping routes should be reopened as soon as possible." 

"China, so far, has been helping Iran," Bosco said. "They've been supplying technical information and weapon materials and other things that are assisting intelligence." 

Bosco sees China calling for the end of the Iran war as "a step in the right direction" but "not the total solution."

Trouble brewing behind the scenes

Staying the present course, however, carries its own risks for China. The emergent superpower is the largest oil importer in the world. According to some sources, China bought over 90% of Iran's oil exports in 2024, and a large part of its crude oil purchases from other countries also need to be transported through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz.

Another motivating factor are the US sanctions imposed last week against individuals and companies in China, including commercial satellite operators, with Washington accusing them of supplying Tehran with weapon components, raw materials and targeting data used to hit US forces in the Persian Gulf.

The issue of US sanctions was conspicuously ignored during Trump's two-day visit to Beijing. And, despite Trump's efforts to project optimism, it remains unclear what concrete steps China is willing to take to help the US open the Strait of Hormuz.

"I certainly do not see the Chinese government, for example, agreeing to take part in some sort of naval operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz or to try to contribute forces towards some sort of effort to open the strait by military means," said Dotson.

Disclaimer: This opinion first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.