Tarique Rahman’s journey ahead promises to be a bumpy ride
Tarique Rahman will be judged on performance of the economy and how safe people feel. But the judgement will not come in five years, but five months
The dust hasn't fully settled on the 12 February elections yet, even though MPs and Ministers have taken their oath. But through the partial haze, newly-elected prime minister Tarique Rahman should have a clear view of the journey ahead. And it already promises to be a bumpy one.
After spending the past year uttering the word "consensus" like a mantra, the first day of the new era began with a serious difference of opinion between the winning and losing sides. This could prove to be just a passing dark cloud, or the harbinger of a gathering storm.
The refusal by BNP MPs to take a second oath, as members of a Constitutional Reform Council, infuriated Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies enough to cause them to boycott the swearing-in ceremony of the new government.
As far as the BNP was concerned, such a Council did not exist in the constitution and it was not something agreed to during discussions about the July Charter. Although the Charter implementation order that was put to the referendum contained reference to the CRC, BNP had expressed serious reservations about its legality.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
While the BNP's refusal was grounded in legal arguments, it nevertheless raised suspicion that the party would turn its back on reforms. The BNP has insisted that it would implement the reforms "approved" in the referendum, but not just the way the interim government dictated.
Crisis over Charter
The days ahead are likely to be filled with arguments over the rights and wrongs of the BNP decision. Nahid Islam of the NCP has already accused the BNP of "betraying the people" and "undermining the mandate" of the referendum. Such outbursts are the natural outcome of frustration with losing control of events, but they are unlikely to impress the BNP which is sitting on a two-thirds majority.
When parliament convenes, one-third of its members (the opposition members) will pretend they are also part of a "reform council" born in the imagination of the now-defunct interim regime.
The other two-thirds will be there purely as members of the Jatiya Sangad, passing legislation, debating the important issues of the day, voicing the concerns of their constituents, and holding the government to account (that's the theory, anyway.)
A lot will depend on how the BNP goes about implementing the July Charter, particularly the constitutional reforms envisaged in the document. Any foot-dragging now could trigger accusations of "bad faith," and create grounds for street agitation.
The big question at this stage is, what would the 77 MPs belonging to the opposition bench do with their "twin membership." Will they try to be disruptive, "form" the CRC on their own, and "pass" the July Charter? Or will they get their act together and do the work their constituents sent them to parliament to do in the first place?
In the days and weeks ahead, the behaviour of both the ruling and opposition parties will be under the microscope, as parliament tries to navigate through this mess created by the interim government. Jamaat and its allies, who received quite a beating at the polls despite creating a mega-hype about an imminent triumph, are likely to be under as much scrutiny as the BNP.
Supremacy of parliament
Opposition parties have already threatened to take to the streets over alleged irregularities in 30 constituencies. Such threats — a common enough practice after a poll defeat in Bangladesh — are unlikely to be carried out.
The public are never in a mood for street agitation immediately after an election, even if the polls were blatantly rigged. These elections, for all its flaws especially the lack of inclusivity and limited choice, were not rigged.
However, that does not mean no danger clouds would gather over the new government in the near future.
A lot will depend on how the BNP goes about implementing the July Charter, particularly the constitutional reforms envisaged in the document. Any foot-dragging now could trigger accusations of "bad faith," and create grounds for street agitation.
The referendum's design was rather laughable to begin with, which made a mockery of the whole process. The order setting up the referendum was legally suspect and may yet be challenged in court. But there is no denying the political value of the Charter and the BNP's participation in the process.
It would be important for the BNP to ensure it implements at least the part of the Charter as it can live with. But crucially, BNP needs to restore the supremacy of parliament in the legislative process which was hijacked by the interim government's reform shenanigans.
The wrangling over the July Charter and reforms are likely to unfold slowly, once parliament is convened. But the serious business of governance is not going to wait for that. The government has a mountain to climb and the public will expect to see them get into their mountaineering gear from day one.
Law and order first
The government, judging by prime minister Tarique Rahman's first address to the nation, has already begun work on a different set of priorities, with law and order at the top of the list. In fact, it can plausibly be argued that these are the very issues which the public themselves would like the government to prioritise.
"Our government's main priority is to bring back peace and security in the minds of the people through improvement of law and order situation and control of corruption through strong actions," Tarique Rahman said.
Senior ministers have already hit the nail on the head.
Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed has stated he will end "mobocracy" — the culture of mob violence that flourished under Yunus's watch. Finance Minister Amir Khasru Chowdhury has spoken of the reforms he expects to carry out in order to bring the economy out of its current stagnant state.
But the PM also has his work cut out here. One of his ministers has already caused a storm, by suggesting that money extorted by transport workers and owners on the highways were not really extortion, rather, they were mutually-agreed transactions.
The minister's explanation sounded rather like the old justification for bribery as "speed money."
Whatever euphemism one may use to describe unauthorised collection of toll on highways, the fact remains they are illegal. Extortions — whether on highways, bus stands, markets etc, are a cancer that has been eating away at a nation's moral, economic and political fabric for decades.
If Tarique is sincere about rooting out corruption — and there is no reason to doubt his sincerity — then forcing this particular minister to retract or resign would be a good first step. Failure to nip this in the bud would make him look weak and indecisive.
Tarique's new promise
Tarique also laid out his store in the traditional way. Incoming governments are in the habit of claiming to have inherited a disastrous economic and law and order situation. This buys them time and provides an excuse for the first wobbly few months. Tarique proved to be no exception.
But he laid the blame for the "fragile economy" and the "deteriorating law and order" situation not on the interim regime, but on what he called "fascists" —- a codeword for the Awami League government that was ousted 18 months ago.
He made no mention of the chaos and mob violence, and economic stagnation coupled with high inflation and rising unemployment, that characterised the 18-month rule of Nobel Peace Laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Despite the omission — which could be the result of an "understanding" with the outgoing interim regime or a strategy to portray the Awami League as the "enemy" in the future — Tarique held out the promise of a different kind of government.
"Rule of law will be the final word in governance," he said while emphasising that all government and semi-autonomous bodies will be run according to rules and not any political whims.
Cynics might say that Bangladeshis have heard such promises in the past, but have not seen anything resembling "rule of law" achieved in the real world. The challenge before Tarique is to turn his words into action.
The prime minister's initial pronouncements, subtle posturing etc appear to press all the right buttons. The idea of riding his own vehicle has brought praise; video of his motorcade moving through usual Dhaka traffic has gone viral.
But governance is not about optics or rhetoric. As the past 18 months have shown, propaganda does not produce prosperity; social media postings do not equate stability; bad mouthing the past regime does not breed investor confidence.
Tarique Rahman knows he will be judged on performance of the economy and how safe people feel in their homes and neighbourhoods. The judgement will not come in five year's time, but five months.
The writer is former Head at BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor at VOA Bangla. He can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com Follow on X: @Sabir59
