Russia and Saudi Arabia draw closer amid OPEC upheaval

Russia and Saudi Arabia each produce between 9-10 million barrels of oil a day. Together, they account for over 20% of total world oil production.

This gives them significant control over supply, despite Western sanctions and price caps on Russian oil following the war in Ukraine, and disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

OPEC minus one important member

As the biggest member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia has long dominated the formal alliance and worked to keep oil prices stable by controlling supply.

Before the war in Iran started, OPEC countries — Iran is a member — produced over 35% of the world's crude oil and have nearly 80% of the world's proven oil reserves.

Still, over the years, the group's power has waned because of internal divisions and the massive rise of US shale oil production.

In April, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), then OPEC's third-largest producer, announced it would leave the group on May 1 after nearly six decades, reducing OPEC's membership to 11 countries.

The oil-rich country, which has significant spare capacity and was unhappy about quotas, can ramp up production as soon as the Strait of Hormuz opens.

Seeking alliances to stay relevant

It is not the first time a member has left — or rejoined — OPEC, but the UAE offered production flexibility and its exit will weaken the cartel's pricing power in the long run.

Perhaps in anticipation of this, Saudi Arabia has been drawing closer to Russia, which is not an OPEC member. The two countries are doing this directly and through the more informal alliance called OPEC+, which consists of OPEC-members and additional oil producing countries, and was created in 2016.

But currently, it is Russia and other non-Gulf petroleum exporters who are benefiting, as Iran effectively blocks the Strait of Hormuz, says Mark N. Katz, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

"Western and other buyers have been willing to increase their purchases of sanctioned Russian oil in order to prevent a dramatic oil price rise, which would hurt their domestic economies," said Katz, who has been following Moscow's relations with the Middle East since the early 1980s.

The St. Petersburg Economic Forum

Among industry analysts and political observers, it has not gone unnoticed that the pair is working more closely than ever. In the past two years, the countries' energy ministers have repeatedly coordinated on oil output.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Riyadh in 2019 and at the end of 2023, when he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Separately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has met with his Saudi counterpart numerous times in the past few years.

To underline this renewed working relationship, Russia has now made Saudi Arabia its guest country at this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled for June 3-6, 2026.

"It is highly symbolic that Saudi Arabia will serve as a guest country at SPIEF in 2026 as we celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations," said Lavrov ahead of the event.

Though some in the West view the meeting as a Russian propaganda event, it brings together businesses and political leaders. Last year, the event was attended by 24,200 people from 144 countries and territories, according to organisers.

Looking beyond oil and OPEC

With slow global growth and an increase in renewables, there is a lot to talk about. Already a decade ago, Saudi Arabia came up with a program called "Vision 2030" to diversify its economy and make it less dependent on oil.

As part of this vision, it has floated ideas like hosting major sporting events, mining gold, copper and zinc, building huge AI data centers, or focusing on international tourism beyond pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina.

Russia, by contrast, is suffering under Western sanctions, depends heavily on a "shadow fleet" of oil tankers and sells most of its oil at discounted prices. Its flagging economy is not the investment opportunity it once was.

"I don't believe the Saudis see Russia as an attractive country to invest in at present," said Katz. "The West, China and other Asian countries offer far better opportunities for cooperation on infrastructure, technology and finance."

This, along with troubles within OPEC, will likely be welcomed by Donald Trump.

While the US has sought partnerships with Moscow, it has not been keen on its allies doing the same, said Katz. "Any declining Saudi enthusiasm for doing business with Russia will be seen by the Trump administration as an opportunity for American business."

Staying friends among shifting alliances

For now, it seems the Russia-Saudi alliance will focus on oil. And both are likely to rejoice that global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2026 and 1.5 million barrels a day the following year, according to OPEC's latest monthly report.

Still, it may not be smooth sailing ahead for this duo, with so much going on in the background.

Saudi Arabia is unhappy about Russia's support of Iran. At the same time, Russia wants to make sure Riyadh doesn't join the West's Ukraine-related sanctions regime.

When it comes to oil, Saudi Arabia also has longer-term goals and is interested in preventing a supply glut that could drive prices lower. Russia has a more short-term need to refill its coffers.

In the end, Katz wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia's increased cooperation with Russia is actually a desire to garner more attention from Washington. It is a method Riyadh has tried "on and off since at least the 1970s," he said.

Timothy is a reporter and senior editor who is always on the lookout for surprising stories and unique characters to better explain how the world works

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Deutsche Welle and was published by a special syndication arrangement.