Is the pro-Israel stand of the West starting to crack?

From the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, the West has voiced strong - almost unconditional - support for Israel, supporting 'their right to defend' themselves. 

Of all Western leaders, the US was of course at the forefront. 

"Let there be no doubt: The United States has Israel's back. We'll make sure the Jewish and democratic state of Israel can defend itself — today, tomorrow, as we always have," President Joe Biden said at the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas. 

He even said that Washington would support Israel with "additional military assistance including ammunition and interceptors to replenish the Iron Dome (Israeli defence system)."

However, while the US continues to stand firm in its support, it seems other Western countries are gradually opting to tread carefully on Israel's response to the October 7 attacks, which have so far claimed more than 11,000 lives, nearly half of whom are children. 

On 11 November, more than 300,000 protesters gathered in central London, asking for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza — the biggest rally in the UK since the war began. Such protests against the war have popped up in many Western countries, and some of its political leaders are starting to feel the heat emanating from them.

The most recent example is the sacking of British Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who called out the police for being too lenient towards pro-Palestininan protesters. In an opinion piece for The Times of London, Braverman had termed the protesters as "pro-Palestinian mobs" and "hate marchers''. Apparently, she was asked to soften the article's tone but she did not. 

Although Biden said there was "no possibility" of a ceasefire in Gaza, a few European countries have begun to ask for an end to Israel's atrocities. 

In fact, by late October, Europe was clearly divided over a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations. While France, Spain and Ireland voted for it, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Croatia voted against. Germany and Italy abstained. 

Western leaders are gradually becoming more vocal against Israel's actions.

French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, recently asked Israel to "stop killing women and babies in Gaza". He told the BBC, "These babies, these ladies, these old people are bombed and killed. So there is no reason for that and no legitimacy. So we do urge Israel to stop."

In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Ione Belarra, the Spanish minister for social rights, said "The Israeli state must end this planned genocide against the Palestinian people." She even criticised world leaders for having a double standard as they showed support for Ukranians but are not doing the same for Palestinians. 

And earlier in October, when the EU proposed to temporarily stop sending aid to Gaza, the Spanish Acting Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said, "Hamas should not be confused with all Palestinians."

On 3 November, during his visit to Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau almost uttered the word "ceasefire". He said, "We need to see a cease… we need to see a humanitarian pause so we can flow, we need ceasing of the levels of violence that we're seeing." 

Will Biden pay a price for his unwavering support?

The US presidential election will take place within a year and there are chances Biden might lose votes in states like Michigan and Minnesota, which have a huge number of Muslim voters (and which he won in the last election). 

Arab American leaders in Michigan have already expressed their anger and concern over the situation in Gaza and the stance taken by the US. A Democratic Party official from Michigan told the Associated Press (AP)  that "Biden's handling of the war has emerged in the state as a 'huge' problem and could become more vexing if the war stretches on and the death toll in Gaza continues to rise." 

The state Democratic Party has already started working on alleviating the tension in the Arab American community. 

An Arab American Institute poll showed that 68% of Arab Americans support an immediate ceasefire. But till now, Biden has only mentioned a "humanitarian pause", which may allow aid to enter Gaza and people to escape for a short time.

Mysoon Zayid, a Palestinian-American comedian and a Democratic Party activist, told the Time magazine "there's absolutely nothing that man could do. I mean, my God, what could ever bring back those kids?" when asked whether she would continue supporting Biden. 

So, the US president may continue to stand with Israel, but will his fellow Americans, rather Democrats, continue to stand with him? 

According to a recent poll from AP-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 46% of Democrats disapproved of how Biden handled the Israel-Hamas conflict. In August, another poll from AP-NORC showed the same figure to be 40%. Some 65% of those who disapprove of Biden's handling of the conflict said "the US is too supportive of Israel". 

The AP report that published the results of the poll mentioned that "majorities of Democrats younger than 45 (65%) and nonwhite Democrats (58%) say they disapprove of Biden's handling of the conflict." On the other hand, "most Democrats 45 and older (67%) and white Democrats (62%) say they approve".

The numbers may be small (the poll was conducted with 1,239 adults), but they do reflect what Americans think of Biden's leadership and possible changes in his voter groups for the 2024 elections. Tougher days lie ahead for the American president trying to balance between his unwavering support for Israel and keeping his voters happy.