More November rain forecast worries farmers

Highlights:

• Continuous rain floods northern croplands, devastating Aman and vegetables
• 26,000 hectares across 16 districts damaged by heavy rainfall
• Farmers fear pests, rot after prolonged waterlogging and crop loss
• Forecast warns of more November low-pressure systems causing heavy rain
• Experts say unseasonal rains delaying rabi and winter crop planting
• Climate change linked to heavier, slower cyclones and persistent rainfall

Continuous rain has submerged croplands in the northern districts, severely affecting farmers growing Aman paddy, potatoes, green chillies, maize, and winter vegetables.

Under the influence of Cyclone Motha, which formed over the Bay of Bengal, light to heavy rainfall swept across various regions of Bangladesh from Thursday to Sunday. At this time, farmers' fields are filled with Aman paddy, potatoes, onions, green chillies, maize, mustard, winter vegetables, and pulses. 

Farmers across several districts reported that four days of rain have flooded fields where their Aman crops had begun to ripen, as well as their potato and maize plots. To reduce losses, many have dug up their seed potatoes from submerged land to prevent them from rotting, attempting to preserve them at home. 

Meanwhile, forecasts warn of two to three more low-pressure formations in November, raising the risk of further heavy rainfall. Farmers remain anxious about these untimely rains, as officials warn that even after the water recedes, many crops may suffer from fungal and pest attacks.

Infograph: TBS

Jahangir Alam, a farmer from Amein village in Sherpur upazila of Bogura, cultivated Aman paddy on five acres of land this year. "It's harvest time now, but the rains ruined everything," he said. "The fields are waterlogged, and some paddy plants have fallen over. In a few days, pests will attack. Some of the grains may rot or become empty. There's no way to recover from this loss."

According to the agriculture ministry, around 26,000 hectares of farmland across 16 districts in Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions were affected by storms and rainfall between Thursday and Sunday. Of this, Aman paddy suffered the most damage, affecting around 21,000 hectares. Additionally, 1,600 hectares of vegetable fields, 552 hectares of onion, and 1,348 hectares of mustard were impacted.

The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) reported that farmers cultivated Aman paddy on 5.7 million hectares of land this year. Of that, 1,76,000 hectares have already been harvested, while most of the rest are now reaching maturity. Within the next week or two, farmers expected to begin full-scale harvesting, but the rising water has left many in crisis.

Farmers also reported damage to maize, vegetables, potatoes, onions, chillies, and black gram. 

Shahidul Islam Shawon, a maize farmer from Shahbandegi union in Sherpur, Bogura, said he planted maize on 16 bighas (about 5 acres) 20 days ago, spending around Tk1,50,000 on labour, seeds, and fertiliser. "I was expecting a good yield this time, but two days of rain have submerged everything. Most of the seeds will rot. Now both our expenses and labour are doubling."

Agriculture officials said they are issuing local advisories and guidelines to help minimise losses. 

Sohail Md Shamsuddin Firoz, deputy director of the DAE in Bogura, said, "We have sent urgent instructions to all assistant agriculture officers to ensure quick drainage from Aman fields. If the weather improves, the fallen plants won't suffer much damage within two to three days. Tying up the fallen plants into small bundles can also reduce losses. There is no alternative to quick drainage."

Farmers are busy yielding potato in Rangpur. Photo: BSS

Potato farmers trapped in a cycle of losses

Due to high yields in the last season, potato growers failed to recover their production costs. Those who stored potatoes suffered losses of Tk15–20 per kg, while others who sold them earlier had to sell at half the production cost. 

Sohrab Hossain, a farmer from Mardia Champakuri in Bagmara upazila, Rajshahi, planted early potatoes on 12 kathas of land this year. "Consumers prefer new potatoes, so I planted early to earn a better price," he said. "But one night of rain on Friday flooded the entire field and destroyed everything."

According to DAE data, farmers have so far planted early potatoes on 23,000 hectares of land. Experts fear many may now abandon cultivation due to repeated losses.

Experts warn of delayed winter cropping

Professor Abu Noman Faruq Ahmed of Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University told The Business Standard, "It usually doesn't rain in November. This year's pattern is unusual – prolonged rainfall during the time when farmers cultivate early potatoes and vegetables. Most of these crops will be ruined, and even those that survive will yield less and face pest infestations. Vegetable seeds are very expensive now, and many farmers won't be able to recover from their losses. They'll likely reduce cultivation next season. Aman paddy quality will also decline. If it rains again, rabi crops and winter vegetables will be hit hard."

He also noted that the unseasonal rain will delay the rabi season. "It has already been delayed," he said. "Many farmers have postponed early potato and vegetable cultivation."

More rain forecast in November

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), two to three more low-pressure systems may form in the Bay of Bengal this month, one of which could intensify into a cyclone. These systems are expected to cause heavy rainfall across the country.

Meteorologist Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik told The Business Standard, "Some cloud formations are lingering along India's West Bengal region, and due to local convection over Bangladesh, areas including Dhaka, Jashore, Kushtia, and Faridpur are seeing rainfall. From 5 November, some areas may experience rain again."

The BMD reported that a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar coast persists and is likely to move north-northwestward along the Myanmar–Bangladesh coasts.

Data from the BMD show that Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Mymensingh divisions experienced unusually high rainfall last week.

Dr Md Bazlur Rashid, another BMD meteorologist, said, "October normally sees less rainfall, but this year the pattern changed. Barishal experienced heavy to very heavy rain in early October, recording unusually high totals within two to three days."

He added that the southwest monsoon withdrew from Rajshahi, Rangpur, Dhaka, Mymensingh, and Khulna divisions on 13 October and from the entire country on 14 October 2025.

According to BMD's long-range forecast for November, two to three low-pressure systems may form over the Bay, one possibly developing into a depression or cyclone.

In October, Rajshahi recorded 177 mm of rain — 32% above normal; Rangpur 223 mm — 43% above normal; Mymensingh 13% above; and Dhaka 5.2% above normal.

Md Obaidur Rahman Mondol, director of the Field Wing at the DAE, told The Business Standard, "Some Aman fields have become waterlogged. Farmers are tying the fallen plants into small bundles to keep them upright. Within two to four days, the newly planted vegetables will begin to rot. We are advising farmers on preventive measures."

Photo: Rajib Dhar/TBS

Climate change at play?

Meteorologist Mostofa Kamal Polash, a PhD researcher on meteorology and climate at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, said that for every 1°C rise in the Earth's temperature, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by 7%. 

"Due to climate change, global temperatures are rising, and as a result, the volume of water vapour in the air is increasing — leading to heavier rainfall," he explained. 

"At the same time, because of climate change, cyclones, depressions, and low-pressure systems are now moving more slowly as they approach land and tend to linger longer, which increases the extent of damage."