New Bangla-Pak friendship promises gain, but is fraught with risks

Sketch: TBS

The deputy prime minister of Pakistan Ishaq Dar, who is also the foreign minister of his country, came to Bangladesh a week ago in a visit that was hailed as a massive success in Islamabad. A flurry of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and agreements were signed and even more lofty words were spoken which painted the visit almost like a coming together of two long lost brothers. 

But the feeling of near-euphoria appeared more pronounced on the visiting side than the home team. 

For one thing, this was a strategic success for Islamabad. To many in Pakistan, Dar's visit may have felt as if they had "outflanked" India and re-established themselves, diplomatically, in New Delhi's vulnerable eastern frontier. 

"For Pakistan, the goals are clear — boost trade volumes to $3 billion annually, position itself as a partner in Bangladesh's economic future and deepen defence and security cooperation," reported the Karachi-based daily Dawn on 24 August. 

These are lofty goals, but some of these are unlikely to create any excitement in Dhaka, while others may create way too much excitement in New Delhi. 

There is not an awful lot Pakistan can offer in terms of economic support. Bangladesh is a $450-billion economy, growing (before 2024) at 6% or more. Pakistan, despite having nearly twice the population and more than five times the landmass, has a GDP of $374 billion. 

Bangladesh exports more goods globally (worth $54 billion) than Pakistan ($40 billion.) In fact, Bangladesh outperforms Pakistan in every economic indicator, as well as all social development indicators. The only area where Pakistan comes up equal to Bangladesh is in Transparency International's corruption index. 

Trade remains one area where Bangladesh would be looking to push, principally because expanding trade globally is the best guarantor of prosperity for the country. Pakistan has not been a strong trading partner and it remains to be seen whether even the modest target of $3 billion is achievable. 

According to UN data, Pakistan exported just $778.11 million worth of goods to Bangladesh in 2024, while Bangladesh exported a meagre $46 million's worth. 

An expansion of trade could further worsen Dhaka's trade imbalance with Islamabad, as Pakistan would look to push exports far more energetically than import from Bangladesh. 

Bangladesh is geared to export goods mainly to the developed world, with  the US and countries of the EU being Dhaka's biggest export markets. India and China are Dhaka's main suppliers. In this scenario, economic partnership with Pakistan through trade or investment would most likely remain low key. 

The shadow of 1971

It is in the political and geopolitical arena that Bangladesh stands to gain or lose most from its new relationship with Pakistan. 

There is not an awful lot Pakistan can offer in terms of economic support. Bangladesh is a $450-billion economy, growing (before 2024) at 6% or more. Pakistan, despite having nearly twice the population and more than five times the landmass, has a GDP of $374 billion. In fact, Bangladesh outperforms Pakistan in every economic indicator, as well as all social development indicators.

Dar observed that relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan had witnessed "many positive developments" since the fall of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government last year. "In a nutshell, today, our bilateral relations are characterised by a new energy and fresh enthusiasm," Dar was quoted by Dawn on 23 August. 

There is no doubt that post-Hasina Bangladesh wishes to "reset" relations with Islamabad after decades of stagnation. But the "enthusiasm" that Dar spoke of was barely seen in the pronouncements of Bangladeshi officials. 

To start with, Dar showed an extraordinary level of insensitivity by his clumsy handling of the issues related to the war of 1971, particularly the issue of the genocide, for which Bangladesh has long demanded a formal apology from Islamabad. 

Dar claimed that the issue of apology was already "resolved," and referred to the expression of "regret" by former President Parvez  Musharraf during his visit to Dhaka in 2002. Dar's claim was based on what Musharraf had written in the official visitor's book at the National Memorial at Savar, which was this: "Your brothers and sisters in Pakistan share the pains of the events of 1971.The excesses committed during the unfortunate period are regrettable." 

To Bangladeshis, these two sentences rang hollow. Not only did Musharraf's regret come nowhere near a sincere apology, the Army Chief-turned-President failed even to acknowledge that the Pakistan military had committed atrocities in 1971. 

Dar's claim was quickly dismissed by his Bangladeshi counterpart, Touhid Hossain. "I definitely do not agree," Hossain told reporters after his meeting with Dar. "We want them to express regret and apologise for the genocide." 

Pakistan may have assessed the rejection of Hasina's 15-year long rule and the growing antipathy towards India as a new-found love for Islamabad and a desire to "move on" from the legacy of the Liberation War. If so, then that was a stunning piece of miscalculation. 

Geopolitical manoeuvring 

Despite this debacle, it is clear that Bangladesh wished to build a new relationship with Pakistan, based on increasing trade and as-yet-undefined or undisclosed level of official exchanges, student scholarships etc.

Pakistan is keen to move on from 1971, because it is eyeing greater prizes: security cooperation with Bangladesh, which is bound to raise a red flag in New Delhi. Senior Bangladeshi military officials have recently visited Pakistan, including one during Dar's Dhaka tour. Talk of Dhaka buying Pakistani-built tanks and fighter jets are in the air. 

"It is evident that Bangladesh is keen to diversify its security partnerships with countries like Pakistan and China, moving away from relying solely on India," Umair Jamal, a Lahore-based journalist wrote in the US-based website The Diplomat. "Arguably, enhanced military ties between the Pakistan and Bangladesh militaries could foster interoperability and joint initiatives." 

There is little doubt that words and phrases like "interoperability" and "joint initiatives" are not going to go down well in the Indian capital. Such words could conjure up images of the Pakistan military re-appearing along India's eastern border, with the local, Bangladeshi military using identical heavy weaponry. 

"India is watching this geopolitical shift with caution," Debarshi Dasgupta, The Strait Times' India correspondent wrote on 31 August. "It remains wary of Pakistan making strategic inroads into its eastern neighbourhood, as well as suspicious of a potential wider alliance between these two countries and China."

Such a scenario seems far-fetched at present, particularly with Bangladesh in the throes of considerable political instability, being ruled by an inexperienced and fumbling interim government headed by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus. 

However, once a stable government is put in place through elections, what is being propagated as mere ideas today may begin to take concrete shape in the not-too-distant future. For his part, Ishaq Dar had taken steps to ensure Pakistan's interests in Bangladesh — economic as well as security — will get a favourable hearing in Dhaka in the future too. 

Pathway to politics

Dar's visit was not only a diplomatic pitch — it was clearly a political one. 

On his first day in Dhaka, Dar met the leaders of the three political parties which have the greatest influence on the interim regime — the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami and the NCP. Often, visiting dignitaries meet with leaders of the ruling party and the main opposition party. But given the transitional situation in the country, Pakistan chose to pitch its case to three different parties, one of which, many believe, would be at the helm following elections. 

But in a clear departure from diplomatic norms, the Pakistani foreign minister singled out one party for praise for their role in the country's internal politics. According to a message posted on social media platform X by the Pakistan Foreign Ministry on August 23, Dar "lauded the courage and steadfastness of the Jamaat leaders and activists in the face of hardships and difficulties". 

This was perhaps an acknowledgement of support for a "brotherly" party which had so steadfastly supported the Pakistan Army during its genocide in Bangladesh in 1971. Like Pakistan, Jamaat also continues to deny its role in the 1971 genocide. 

However, Dar's move to reach out to three parties, coupled with a visit to the ailing former prime minister Khaleda Zia, is in contrast to India's closeness to one party, the Awami League. India's pro-AL policy, pursued by all governments in Delhi, was often criticised in India itself as "putting all its eggs in one basket". 

India's attempts to build bridges with the BNP in the early parts of the 2000s, came to nothing. One of India's major concerns has always been the security of its seven north-eastern states, often referred to as the Seven Sisters, which lie along or close to Bangladesh's northern and eastern border. 

It appears, from comments made at various times by Indian officials and commentators, that Delhi never developed a confidence in the BNP when it came to collaboration on issues of security for the Seven Sisters. 

Dar's visit made it clear that Pakistan aims to spread the eggs more evenly — which is helped by the fact that these three parties have antipathy towards both the AL and India as a uniting factor. This relationship could give Islamabad a conduit through which to influence Dhaka's politics, perhaps even elections. This would create the scope for much controversy in the months and years ahead. 

Dar's visit has already led to calls in the Indian media for Prime Minister Modi's government to act pragmatically and find ways to connect with the Bangladeshi leadership. "Growing Pakistani influence there poses security risks that India cannot ignore," The Telegraph of Kolkata wrote in an editorial on 27 August. 

For Bangladesh, reaping the economic benefits of trade with Pakistan, however small, would be a net gain. But any geopolitical fallout which turns Bangladesh into Islamabad's proxy in the ongoing Indo-Pak rivalry would be nothing short of disastrous. 

The writer is former Head, BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor, VOA Bangla.