Manufacturing Consensus: How social media propaganda could shape Bangladesh’s upcoming elections

Photo: Collected

At first glance, Bangladesh's political landscape appears by and large dominated by mass rallies, fierce demonstrations and the sheer power of public mobilisation.

Of course, without the people taking to the streets during the July Uprising, Sheikh Hasina would not have fled, bringing an abrupt end to her 16-year rule.

Yet, this only scratches the surface of the country's current political dynamics, and what the future may hold. 

Even during Hasina's tenure, the now-ousted Awami League relied on more than just "street activism" to maintain its grip on power.

At a time when electoral democracy was seemingly non-existent, and public choice held little weight, the Awami League made every effort to dominate the digital sphere as well.

In the lead-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections, a significant bot network linked to the party was at play. Researchers at Dismislab identified 1,369 Facebook accounts generating over 21,000 comments, primarily pushing pro-government narratives.

The network's tactics — using fake profiles with consistent naming patterns and coordinated comment activity — were a calculated effort to manipulate online discourse and sway public opinion in favour of the ruling party.

But today, the scenario is far more complex.

With a competitive election finally on the horizon in Bangladesh and a significant number of young and not-so-young voters preparing to cast their first-ever ballots after years of exclusion, such coordinated online efforts are likely to rise manifold. 

According to American media studies scholar Samuel Woolley, social bots play a critical role in propaganda campaigns by generating artificial engagement, such as likes, shares and comments, thereby creating a false sense of popularity and consensus around specific ideas or narratives. This manufactured momentum can then influence real users.

This time, however, it will not be limited to just one or two parties; all major political forces are expected to engage in the digital battleground, turning social media into a whirlwind of truth, half-truths, and outright lies — all aimed at shaping public opinion.

This phenomenon aligns closely with the concept of manufacturing consent, a term popularised by Edward S Herman and Noam Chomsky in their 1988 book Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media.

In this work, they argue that structural biases inherent in traditional mass media organisations — stemming from factors such as ownership, advertising and reliance on elite sources — serve to propagate the interests of dominant, elite groups.

But now, in the digital age, social media platforms have become the new arena for this process, with technology lowering the barriers to entry for propaganda.

This shift is thoroughly examined in Samuel Woolley's 2023 book, Manufacturing Consensus: Understanding Propaganda in the Era of Automation and Anonymity.

Woolley, an American media studies scholar, centres his analysis on the ways in which automation and anonymity on social media platforms have become central to contemporary propaganda campaigns.

According to him, social bots play a critical role in these campaigns by generating artificial engagement, such as likes, shares and comments, thereby creating a false sense of popularity and consensus around specific ideas or narratives.

This manufactured momentum can then influence real users, leading them to believe that a particular viewpoint is more widely held than it actually is, creating a bandwagon effect.

Woolley also emphasises the use of sockpuppet accounts, where individuals create and manage multiple fake online profiles to amplify messages and participate in discussions under false pretenses.

These accounts can be used to spread disinformation, harass dissenting voices and manipulate online conversations to push specific agendas.

Partisan influencers, often individuals with a significant online following, also contribute to these campaigns by promoting specific narratives to their audience, sometimes for financial gain or ideological alignment.

These techniques can be strategically employed to not only create the illusion of widespread support but also to actively mold discontent for political purposes.

Woolley's concept of "computational propaganda" provides a framework for understanding this complex ecosystem. It goes beyond simply the spread of inaccurate information. It encompasses the deliberate use of algorithms and automation to strategically distribute misleading content across social media networks.

A key aspect of computational propaganda is its ability to learn from and mimic the behaviour of real users, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish between organic and inauthentic content.

This sophisticated approach allows propaganda to operate at an unprecedented scale and speed, potentially having a significant impact on public opinion and democratic processes.

The anonymity afforded by the internet further exacerbates this challenge, as it often obscures the origins and intentions behind these influence campaigns. 

The ability to automate the dissemination of messages and generate seemingly genuine engagement allows for the manipulation of perceptions regarding public sentiment in ways that were previously unattainable.

This manufactured consensus can then have tangible effects on opinions and actions in the real world, potentially undermining the foundations of democratic discourse.

To add to that, AI-powered deepfake technology also played a significant role in recent elections, with realistic deepfake videos and audio clips of prominent political figures circulating on social media

Amid all this, what Woolley finds particularly concerning is how journalists, under pressure to deliver stories quickly, are increasingly reliant on social media for news-gathering. 

They use social media not only because it is the preferred communication channel of many people around the world but also because they are under pressure to put out stories, and social media is an easy and accessible source of leads and information.

But given the reach of computational propaganda, sourcing news from social media can be a real problem. The trends and numbers there can easily be gamed; perhaps worse, a great deal of information on sites like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube is of dubious provenance, and reporters themselves can fall victim to manufactured consensus.

Such a situation may very well spell double trouble for Bangladesh, gearing up for the return of electoral democracy for the first time since the internet became ubiquitous in this part of the world.

Leading up to the general elections, both social media users and journalists are at risk of falling prey to misleading narratives, which in turn can influence the broader media audience as well. This amplification of misinformation will further erode the credibility of news sources and distort public perception. 

Ultimately, this could directly impact the final outcome of the elections — something social media propagandists are naturally motivated by.

In the current climate, youth voters, as well as first-time voters, some of whom may be up to 35 years old due to the absence of electoral democracy in Bangladesh for the last 16 years, make up a significant portion of the electorate and are especially vulnerable.

They heavily rely on social media for political information. But while social media can increase political awareness and engagement, it also fosters "filter bubbles" and "echo chambers," limiting exposure to diverse viewpoints.

Hence, for first-time voters, who are still forming their political ideologies, these environments can be particularly influential, making them more susceptible to targeted propaganda.

Numbers tell us the extent of these concerns. 

A recent survey by Innovision reveals that nearly one-third, or 29.4%, of voters in Bangladesh have not yet made up their minds about the upcoming elections. 

Among these undecided voters, the trend is more pronounced in urban areas, where 35% remain uncertain, compared to 27% in rural areas. 

Additionally, 8.6% of people did not respond to the question at all, further deepening the uncertainty.

This pool of undecided voters presents a prime target for digital influence campaigns. Without strong political affiliations, they are more susceptible to persuasive messaging, whether truthful or fabricated. 

Social media bots and coordinated propaganda efforts are likely to focus on shaping the opinions of these voters, potentially tipping the balance in a closely contested election.

As a result, it is inevitable that, in the coming days, we will witness widespread "bot deployment" in Bangladesh's social media sphere to blur the line between reality and illusion. 

If we do not remain vigilant with critical awareness, we risk surrendering our future to unseen forces, allowing deception and manipulation to shape our destiny before we even have a chance to reclaim our voice.