Lessons from Iran and warnings for Bangladesh

On Friday the 13th, a date considered unlucky in Western culture, Iran faced a 'surprise' attack. There was supposed to be a nuclear talk in Oman on Sunday, the 15th, on the heels of a two-month Trumpian deadline to return to the negotiation table. As Iran prepared for the diplomatic date, it faced attacks from both internal and external sources. 

The 12-day war that has now come to an uneasy end began with Israel wiping out the top echelon of Iran's military command and nuclear scientists with surgical precision.

The world witnessed Iran regrouping after the initial setback and launching a variety of ballistic missiles to evade the highly regarded multi-layered protective shields, which include the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow Defence System, ultimately leading to a ceasefire in the battle. 

Both parties are now claiming face-saving victory. The story is now well known, and thanks to endless talk shows and commentaries, we have all become experts on the Middle East.

But now that the sky with flashes and salvos of ballistic lightning has quietened for a while, we can return to a story involving a porous border, a disenfranchised populace and potential security threats to our country. A recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) on "Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency" has brought the issue to the fore. 

History tells us despair is a strategic weapon. Disenfranchisement breeds despair, which, if ignored, becomes weaponised. We saw it in 1971. We saw it in 2024. The brutal ethnic cleansing in Myanmar has brought the hapless Rohingyas to Bangladesh, as well as to other places in India, Thailand, and Malaysia, among other places. These people have endured years of limbo, as there seem to be hardly any sincere steps towards repatriation with safety and dignity.

It begins by reflecting the latest developments, "Since the Arakan Army's seizure of much of Myanmar's Rakhine State, Rohingya armed groups have paused their turf war in Bangladesh's refugee camps and ramped up recruitment, using religious language to mobilise refugees to fight the Rakhine armed group. Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging the Arakan Army." 

These are serious claims. And the government is in a better position to respond. For me, the tension on our border compels me to reflect on the surprise attack on Iran. For a long time, as a country under sanction, Iran, or some of its corrupt officials, allowed its citizens to encourage informal trade through an open border policy. 

This arrangement allowed local agents of foreign power, groups engaged in regime change activities, as well as petty smugglers looking for quick money to bring in small parts that can be converted into first-person-view (FPV) drones through land and maritime routes along the Persian Gulf. 

Years of planning came into fruition when these miniature drones were assembled inside Iranian territory. Israeli secret service members or their local agents allegedly used them to destroy sensitive radar installations and early-warning systems, leaving the Iranian airspace completely exposed. 

The invasion of a sovereign country, achieved not through brute force but rather through asymmetrical tactics that exploit fragmented terrain and porous logistics, along with the assistance of local agents, demonstrates how even low technology can severely undermine a national security apparatus. The external enemy could strike due to internal vulnerabilities or a discontented population. 

The so-called 12-day war can be a wake-up call for us. For a long time, our security experts have been talking about the vulnerability of a modern state not only to external enemies but also to the internal unrest of disenfranchised or aggrieved groups who may be recruited by foreign actors. The cautionary tale resonates deeply with Bangladesh, which has provided shelter to 1.3 million Rohingya people. 

These people are stateless and marginalised. Their own country has excluded them from their ethnicity list, and with new war zones opening up across the globe, the humanitarian agencies are becoming oblivious to the plights of these long-forgotten people. Confined in sprawling camps for over eight years, they are frustrated by the lack of a clear policy of repatriation or integration into mainstream society. 

The reduction in their daily allowances is a sign of the 'moral' world's ambivalence. Meanwhile, the issue of creating humanitarian corridors or channels will turn them into pawns on the geopolitical chessboard.

The ICG report warns us that the Rohingya crisis has transformed from a humanitarian issue into a potential security threat, though the noble intention of standing by our Muslim brothers in the face of atrocities unleashed by the junta was considered a welcome move. 

The resistance movement across the border has created a situation where several Rohingya armed groups have regrouped, radicalised, and begun to operate across the border in Myanmar's Rakhine State. There are unsupported claims that they could have support from their compatriots in the refugee camps. If that is the case, the mythical Trojan horse that Israel's secret service enacted with the help of local collaborators can find a likely parallel.

History tells us despair is a strategic weapon. Disenfranchisement breeds despair, which, if ignored, becomes weaponised. We saw it in 1971. We have seen it in 2024. The brutal ethnic cleansing in Myanmar has brought the hapless Rohingyas to Bangladesh, as well as to other places in India, Thailand, and Malaysia, among other places. These people have endured years of limbo, as there seem to be hardly any sincere steps towards repatriation with safety and dignity. 

Our previous leaders thought these noble gestures would bring them a 'homonymous' award. Our NGO activists enjoyed the unrestricted flow of aid, which enabled them to appear angelic in public while reciting all the necessary buzzwords. But now, the steady flow of humanitarian aid has faltered under the MAGA US policy that has downsized USAID projects. The visit by the UN chief during Ramadan momentarily gave hope of resettlement. However, the discourse changed once we started hearing about corridors and the like. 

The crisis, then, is not only about resources but also about purpose. The camps have one of the highest birth rates, and there is an entire generation, born or raised in camps, who see no future. Trafficking and forced marriages are prevalent among women and girls. The host country, troubled with its own internal crisis, has little to offer to these refugees.

The emergence of armed resistance in Myanmar further exacerbates the problem. Some of them are ideologically motivated, resisting the autocratic junta regime. Some of these groups operate as transnational criminal networks involved in human trafficking and drug smuggling. 

As the ICG report notes, organisations like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), and other splinters have moved from competing for turf within the camps to forging uneasy alliances aimed at fighting the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State. 

They couch their rhetoric in religious terms, framing their mission as a "jihad", which is likely to resonate within the community. The situation may be conducive to the recruitment of rebels by various interested parties. Foreign powers may view this restless population as a useful proxy, similar to how Israel utilises local assets to maintain internal cohesion in Iran.

The report tells us Bangladesh's vulnerability is real. The refugee camps near the porous border with Myanmar come close to the operational theatre of both the Arakan Army and Rohingya insurgent groups. 

We have already read reports of the Arakan Army indulging in water sports in our territory or blocking our fishermen and tourists from getting into the sea. The shadow economies of narcotic substances like methamphetamine (yaba) pills and illegal arms, along with kidnapping for ransom, are financing armed activity.

The ICG observes that the Bangladesh army has ambiguous relationships with the involved parties. The government is committed to repatriation through dialogue with their counterpart in Naypyidaw. It is also feeling the pressure to contact groups that have asserted their control at our border. The report critiques this dual strategy as dangerous.

The report also makes us aware of the shifting mindset among the refugees themselves. The Rohingyas used to fear and reject the armed groups. Now, the attitude is changing as they dream of 'taking back' Rakhine state. 

The truce among militant factions in late 2024 and subsequent religious mobilisation campaigns have normalised the idea that armed struggle is not just acceptable but also necessary.

We can only hope that this crisis does not become an international issue. Too many global actors have vested interests in our Bay of Bengal: some for offshore drilling and the blue economy, some for geopolitical choke points. The last thing we want is to engage in a proxy war that could turn these stateless, desperate youth into foot soldiers.

The multipronged roadmap given by the ICG demands a serious review. We need to learn from the Friday the 13th episode of Iran and read it alongside the ICG report to decide how we can avoid our nightmare.

Shamsad Mortuza is a professor and special advisor (BOT) at the Department of English & Humanities (DEH), ULAB.