Launching of National Citizen Party: Just another political party or a new era for democracy?

The launching rally of National Citizen Party (NCP), held in front of the National Parliament on Friday, drew a big crowd. Leaders from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, and several other parties were in attendance. 

With the goal of establishing a 'second republic', NCP leadership said they want a new constitution through a constituent assembly. The mass uprising against Sheikh Hasina was not only about overthrowing one government and replacing it with another; the NCP leaders emphasised the need for a 'new political settlement' in their speeches.

Bangladesh has long been dominated by the political duopoly of the Awami League and BNP. Despite the Awami League's concerted efforts to dismantle the BNP during its years of autocracy, the party managed to survive. 

However, the Awami League— arguably the country's strongest political force—has effectively 'vanished' after Sheikh Hasina was ousted and fled to India. As a result, a significant void has emerged in the political landscape with the absence of the Awami League.

With the inauguration of the NCP, political analysts see an opportunity. 

"Morning shows the day," said Nurul Amin Bepari, a former professor of political science at the University of Dhaka. "They made the impossible possible last August, so there's hope with them." 

The political analyst was impressed by the NCP rally and noted that if their programs are truly "pro-Bangladesh," their support is likely to grow.

In his speech, NCP chief Nahid Islam expressed the NCP's goal to build a pluralistic society by safeguarding the ethnic, social, gender, religious, and cultural values and diversity within the state. 

While this commitment signals an inclusive approach from a centrist party, the reported inclusion of an 'LGBTQ rights activist' in the party ranks has sparked outrage among Islamists on social media. 

The inclusion of such a leader in the ranks could garner positive press for the NCP in the West, although excluding him is reportedly on the cards due to pressure from certain quarters of the public. 

"Forming a political party and succeeding in politics are not the same," said Abdul Latif Masum, a former professor of government and politics at Jahangirnagar University. 

"It is a tough task, and they have taken a great risk. Rather than seeking immediate gains, they should wait for a better future. If they truly emerge as a centrist and pro-Bangladesh party, they will earn the people's support,"  he added.

But can they fill the void left by the Awami League? 

"Yes, there is a chance. But the road to success is difficult. If their words and actions align, they will emerge as a resource rather than a burden," said Abul Latif. 

Abdul Latif warned the student representatives in the government and emphasised the importance of the interim government's neutrality. "Since their representatives are in the government, other parties may raise concerns about its neutrality," he said.

It is clear that, despite the political cordiality displayed at the NCP's launch rally, the political parties have differing agendas. The BNP is primarily focused on holding quick elections, making them highly unlikely to concede to the NCP's demand for a new constitution, as that would require significant time to implement.

Jamaat, on the other hand, despite its initial show of support, will likely grow wary of the NCP as it strengthens and begins to claim a share of the undecided voters that Jamaat had targeted. Online activists affiliated with Jamaat are already campaigning against the NCP, particularly after former Shibir leaders, who had hoped for posts in the new party, exited.

However, political analysts believe that the established parties should give the NCP space and an opportunity to grow.

"There is a political gap in the absence of the Awami League," said Nurul Amin Bepari. "If relations [between NCP and other parties] turn antagonistic from the start, it won't be wise for democracy in this country. If BNP wins the election, there should be a strong opposition. Who will that be? If the NCP can become a strong opposition, it would benefit the BNP and ensure a sustainable democracy. We've already seen what happens to democracy when there's no strong opposition, as evidenced under Hasina," 

While things appeared smooth on the surface for NCP, reports emerged of tensions within the leadership ranks of the NCP prior to its inauguration. The July uprising had given rise to many student leaders, and soon, professionals—some of whom left their lives abroad to enter politics—joined the party. 

However, most of the mass uprising leadership remained in the NCP united, at least for now.