As Kashmir bleeds, black clouds loom over the fates of Indian Muslims

Indian security forces personnel escort an ambulance carrying the bodies of tourists who were killed in a suspected militant attack near Pahalgam. Photo: Reuters

On 22 April 2025, Kashmir bled. 

A terror attack by The Resistance Front (TRF) left 26 tourists dead and 17 injured in South Kashmir's Pahalgam — a gruesome attack that stunned the world and was the deadliest such incident in a quarter century in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

However, the recent months have not been calm elsewhere in India either. 

Earlier in April, the controversial Waqf Bill was passed in the parliament, prompting widespread protest from the minority Muslim community and riots later broke out in Murshidabad, West Bengal. 

In such an atmosphere, the Pahalgam attack has intensified anti-Muslim rhetoric in India, with ruling BJP leaders clamouring for vengeance against Pakistan and terrorists. Social media has been flooded with rhetoric like 'Terrorism has a religion'. Even a prominent filmmaker like Srijit Mukherji wrote, "Some typos need to be avoided in media reports. Innocent Hindu civilians, not innocent civilians. Brutal Islamic terrorism, not brutal terrorism." 

What will happen in the wake of such a tragic incident?

Arka Bhaduri, a prominent journalist based in India, was still in shock when TBS spoke to him this morning. 

"First and foremost, as an Indian and as a human being, I am still in a state of shock. Those who carried out this brutal massacre in Kashmir are individuals with twisted minds — they are psychopaths. These murderers are enemies of Kashmir, enemies of humanity, enemies of ordinary Kashmiris, and adversaries of human civilisation. The entire nation is grief-stricken and stunned. Not just India, but people of conscience across the world are in mourning," he said.  

But he also spoke about the sharp increase in anti-Muslim rhetoric after the attack. 

"What is deeply regrettable is that, in the wake of yesterday's atrocity, anti-Muslim politics in India has gained further strength. For those who advocate secularism, oppose Islamophobia, and stand for the peaceful coexistence of all faiths, the situation has become even more challenging. Let us not forget that among those who lost their lives to the militants' bullets yesterday was also a Muslim." 

Dr Saimum Parvez, an academic and global security expert, said, "Such incidents create fertile ground for the rise of extreme Hinduism, Islamophobia, and anti-Muslim sentiment. Beyond its impact on domestic politics in India, where Narendra Modi's party and policies gain further leverage, this attack may also deteriorate bilateral relations between India and Pakistan." 

Undoubtedly the attack has put the Indian Muslims in hot water again. 

Since yesterday's incident, a storm of anti-Muslim rhetoric has swept across the country. Islamophobia is being stoked on a massive scale. And it is hard to blame those experiencing this 'phobia' — when people are killed in cold blood, such fear is inevitable. 

"The barbaric attack has had a severe emotive effect on the whole Indian society. However, this has been subtly guided towards a major anti-Muslim sentiment in social media. The fact that terrorists used religious profiling in targeting their victims has been quite highlighted in both mainstream media and social media," said Tanvir Habib Jewel, a faculty member at the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka. 

"While the central government so far appears to not peddle this narrative, the concerted efforts in both mainstream and social media showcase a clear step towards agenda setting for a major communal upheaval. There are murmurs of retribution for the victims of this barbaric attack. The fear is whether this fear will be realised or not," he added. 

"Given the allegations of state collusion during the Gujarat riots, such a scenario cannot be overlooked. This attack has shifted the narrative from the recent Waqf bill to the extent that the whole issue can be 'securitised.' This incident will be used to justify other 'bulldozer raj' type incidents in the future," he further said. 

There is a high chance that the BJP will exploit the Pahalgam attack for political gains, much like they did with Pulwama. In such a scenario, the Modi government might adopt an aggressive stance towards its neighbours. 

Dr Saimum Parvez said, "Terrorist attacks on civilians are often followed by disproportionate retaliation by state authorities. These killings are likely to exacerbate the already dire human rights situation in Kashmir, leading to the implementation of more stringent and draconian laws that would adversely affect the lives and livelihoods of Muslims, not only in Kashmir but across India. In this context, the attack has provided the BJP government with a justification for repression." 

Since 5 August, India has been running a worldwide disinformation campaign about minority oppression in Bangladesh. A more belligerent anti-Muslim stance by BJP may strain bilateral relation between the two countries, both at the state level and among the ordinary citizens of the two nations. 

Recent posts by Moyukh Ranjan linking Bangladesh to the Pahalgam incident, perhaps, is another example of using this to further justify Indian approaches to Bangladesh. 

Tanvir Habib Jewel also talked about the probable effect on the Indian stance regarding Bangladesh. 

"Considering the active narrative shaping we are observing across the Indian media landscape, I fear retaliatory attacks against Indian Muslims happening across the country… If communal riots take place in India, then we may witness cross-border spillover effects in Bangladesh. 

"⁠I foresee tough days ahead and a further entrenched Indian position vis-à-vis Bangladesh and others. Calm heads and dynamic escalation management will be needed to ensure that tension does not end up disrupting the regional order," he added. 

We are already witnessing the causal linkage being thrown between recent statements by the Pakistan army chief about the indispensable nature of Kashmir in Pakistan's psyche to subtly hint at a cross-border linkage. However, given the state of the Indian air force, cross-border attacks seem unlikely but not impossible. So far, this seems like it is more about domestic politics at this point. 

Given the timing of the incident coinciding with US Vice President JD Vance's visit to India, it is likely that India will enjoy a significant level of US support in whatever action they undertake, opined Tanvir Habib.  

"Full-scale conflict is unlikely at this stage but we may see localised military actions as pressure will be mounting on the Modi government to respond with strength," he said. 

Arka Bhaduri said, "This horrific incident occurred only yesterday. I am not in the right frame of mind to comment on this matter at present. However, based on past experience, it seems likely that various political parties, particularly far-right forces, will seek to exploit this event for political gain. 

"The process of 'othering' the Muslim minority within the country may intensify. If this happens, it would be deeply unfortunate, because these Islamist terrorists are enemies of all Indians, Hindus and Muslims alike," he added. "On one hand, they have mercilessly killed unarmed Hindu tourists and local Muslim youths; on the other, they have pushed the entire Muslim community of the country into peril." 

He disagreed on the use of the word 'aggression'. 

"From what we know so far, Pakistan's backing is behind this massacre. I trust the Indian government will take necessary measures — the right steps. The safety of the nation's citizens is paramount, so no such action should be termed 'aggression'. I firmly believe that ordinary Pakistanis do not support such barbaric killings either. No ordinary citizen of any country desires war, nor do they wish for innocent, unarmed people to be murdered."