Israel-Lebanon ceasefire: Will it last?

After almost 14 months of fighting, a ceasefire agreement brokered by France and the US has been accepted by both Hezbollah and Israel. But is this the end of the conflict? Experts say the ceasefire remains fragile.

What does the ceasefire say? 

The ceasefire deal says there will be a two-month halt to fighting between the Israeli military and the armed wing of the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

In terms of specifics, the ceasefire was — as expected — drawn up along the same lines as the 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that ended a brief but brutal bout of fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military in July and early August 2006.

In 2006, Resolution 1701 established a buffer zone separating Israel and Hezbollah between the Litani River in Lebanon and the Blue Line, the latter being an "interim" border drawn by the UN after earlier fighting and Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon.

In this new ceasefire, officially agreed by the governments of Israel and Lebanon and accepted by Hezbollah, both parties recognize the importance of Resolution 1701. As a result, Hezbollah is to withdraw north of the Litani River while Israeli troops will gradually withdraw back south of the Blue Line into Israel.

Under Resolution 1701, this buffer zone has been managed by the Lebanese army and the 10,000-strong United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). This will continue, but the number of troops in the buffer zone will grow.

The Lebanese army will deploy 10,000 soldiers into the buffer zone to make sure that neither Hezbollah nor Israel returns. 

UNIFIL, which is made up of soldiers from 48 countries, including Germany, is now likely to get more support from the US and other nations.

Over the years, there had been multiple violations of Resolution 1701, with Israel and Hezbollah trading accusations that the other was causing all the problems. UNIFIL cannot enforce its rules militarily and must rely on the cooperation of all involved. 

There will be no US combat troops deployed in Lebanon, but there will be US military support for the Lebanese army, which is smaller, underfunded, and outgunned by Hezbollah. 

Previously, UNIFIL has been praised for facilitating communication between the Israeli and Lebanese militaries, which would not normally have been in contact. Now, representatives of France and the United States will join that communications channel and also help monitor any new ceasefire violations.

Why did the parties agree to a deal?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explained the ceasefire will allow Israel to "focus on Iran," to let the Israeli troops recover, and to divide Hezbollah from Hamas in Gaza.

Analysis in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggested there had also been an increase in US pressure on Israel because far-right politicians in Netanyahu's coalition government did not threaten to withdraw from the government, as they did previously when a ceasefire in Gaza was suggested. 

Additionally, while Israeli air raids in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq can be carried out with very little danger to Israeli soldiers, the attempt to enter Lebanon was much deadlier. Hezbollah fighters were positioned along the border, and the Israeli military's death toll was mounting.

As for Hezbollah, its leadership structures had been badly damaged, and the Israeli airstrikes' effects on Lebanese civilians and the impact on the Lebanese economy "weakened" the group's will to fight, Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council specializing in the Middle East, explained.

Resolution 1701 was often criticized; Abercrombie Winstanley pointed out: "Even its imperfect implementation in 2006 brought over 16 years of relative peace and stability. Both sides are ready for that."

Israeli defense experts also told Haaretz they believe Hezbollah and its supporters in Iran also wanted time to rebuild and regroup.

Will the ceasefire last?
US President Joe Biden says the deal "was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

However, experts agree that the ceasefire is fragile as the underlying sources of the conflict still exist, and its implementation will be difficult. Questions are already being asked about the Lebanese army's ability to police the buffer zone. 

Israel has said if Hezbollah fighters violate the ceasefire deal, then it would be allowed to strike back inside Lebanon.

Such a clause is unlikely to have been included in the agreement because both Lebanese and Hezbollah officials previously objected to it as it would violate Lebanon's sovereignty.

"To get around the issue, media reports had suggested that the US would issue a letter supporting Israel's right to act," the BBC reported.

Israeli media outlets seemed to confirm this Wednesday. Reports detailing a US letter to Israel say it states:

The United States guarantees that intelligence will be shared on Hezbollah. Israel could still conduct aerial reconnaissance over Lebanon — something the original Resolution 1701 did not permit and Israel could act against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon if the terms of the ceasefire are broken, but it should notify the US before doing so.

Hezbollah representatives have also said the group reserves the right to act if Israel attacks.  

When it comes to the rehash of Resolution 1701, "the challenges are the same as 18 years ago," said Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the Crisis Group think tank. "Namely, how to make sure that both parties comply in the long term, and what to do with Hezbollah's military capabilities, which constitute a threat to the security of Israel and potentially other Lebanese, whether they are present on the border or a few kilometers away."

Who else is involved in the ceasefire?
The ceasefire deal does not apply in any way to what's going on in Gaza. Biden has said he hopes the momentum created by the Lebanon agreement might lead to a similar outcome in Gaza, but Israel's Netanyahu has already reacted negatively to that suggestion.

Gaza-based militant group Hamas "appreciates" Hezbollah's right to strike a deal protecting its people, an official from the group told Reuters news agency. Hamas was also ready for a ceasefire deal, the official said.

The ceasefire has not changed the intentions of other members of the so-called "Axis of Resistance," a number of groups backed by Iran that consider Israel and the US their enemies.

Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the United States, and several other countries. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the US, Germany,y and several Sunni Arab countries, while the EU lists its armed wing as a terrorist group.

In Yemen, the Houthi rebel group's leadership "has framed the ceasefire as a temporary adjustment, not a strategic retreat," said Mohammed Albasha, founder of the Basha Report, a US-based consultancy specializing in Yemen. "This suggests that alongside Hezbollah and other factions … the Houthis are committed to a long-term resistance strategy. The conflict remains volatile, and its direction will largely hinge on how Hezbollah and Israel respond."

The ceasefire agreement makes an escalation toward a direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran much less likely. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson praised the deal, adding that a ceasefire was also necessary in Gaza.