'If there is instability in Bangladesh, it's a matter of concern for all its neighbours'

Sanjoy Hazarika is an Indian journalist, writer, filmmaker, and researcher renowned for his work on issues concerning Northeast India and its neighbouring regions. 

From 2016 to 2022, he served as the International Director of the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative (CHRI), while he is also the founder of the Centre for North East Studies and Policy Research. One of his most notable books is Rites of Passage: Border Crossings, Imagined Homelands, India's East and Bangladesh (2000). 

Given the potential shifts in the relationship between Bangladesh and India due to recent political changes in Bangladesh, as well as ongoing issues like border killings and flooding, The Business Standard interviewed Hazarika to explore these critical matters in depth from an Indian's perspective.

In light of the recent changes in the political landscape of Bangladesh, what do you foresee the future of the country's relationship with India?

It depends on how both states negotiate, and it also depends on what Sheikh Hasina does – whether she goes elsewhere, leaving India, or not. I have heard Dr Muhammad Yunus saying that India should send her back to Bangladesh to face trial. You know what that means. 

But whether or not India should extradite her, let the issue come up formally first. I think India will only like to extradite her if there's an assurance that she will be protected, and she will not be subjected to [political] revenge. India will be very reluctant to hand over Hasina in a situation where she is not safe. 

Dr Yunus said a few days ago that if Bangladesh remains unstable, West Bengal, Seven Sisters and Myanmar too would be affected. What do you think about it? Could the political climate in Bangladesh impact these regions, especially Northeast India?

If there is instability in Bangladesh, it's indeed a matter of concern for all its neighbours. So we hope for stability. I know the stability is being restored and that conditions are improving. 

We would definitely not like to see a return to the old days. In the earlier BNP regime under Khaleda Zia, there was support to several underground groups in the Northeast, especially ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam) and so on. But Sheikh Hasina had stopped that. All the support to the anti-India forces based in Bangladesh was stopped. 

So, we do not want to see a return to that. And I'm sure Dr Yunus, who I happen to know slightly, is deeply concerned about this, and I think he must have meant it in a larger context.

Will the Indian central government look to maintain a friendly relationship with Bangladesh if either the BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami comes to power next?

It depends on the BNP and Jamaat. I'm sure the government of India is big enough to extend a helping hand. But if BNP and Jamaat don't want to play the game, then it's a different issue.

Do you think the ongoing violence in Manipur has the potential to escalate into broader unrest, and could it also have any impact on neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh?

The only country on which it could have an impact apart from the rest of Northeast India is Myanmar, because there are close ethnic links with people across the border, especially among the Kukis, the tribal group in the hills, and also with the Mizos in the neighbouring state of Mizoram. As of now, it has been contained to Manipur.

But I think that it's already been a year and a half, and the government is looking very, very vulnerable. It's looking as if it's not able to handle the situation, at both the central and the state levels. And so, there is a threat not just to regional security but also to national security if these conditions are not resolved. You have a situation of acute ethnic conflict between two large groups in a state, and there is no dialogue as of now.

We need to make sure that dialogue starts. Once dialogue starts, even if there is confrontation going on, then the situation can de-escalate, and can become better. But if there's no conversation taking place between the fighting groups, then it becomes extremely stressful for the whole region because Manipur has borders with Assam and Mizoram, as well as Nagaland.

Last month, both Bangladesh and India experienced severe flooding. The interim government of Bangladesh has accused India of causing the floods by releasing water from a dam in Tripura without giving prior notice. Could this issue potentially lead to a significant diplomatic conflict between the two countries?

First, there should be an investigation into the cause of the flooding to determine whether it resulted from unusual or sudden rainfall, climate change, or issues related to the dam. I'm not so sure [about the latter] because a lot of people in Tripura themselves were affected, and several people died in Tripura.

There needs to be a clear assessment of what exactly went wrong and that those findings should be made public within the region, in both India and Bangladesh.

Don't you think India shouldn't have constructed any dam or barrage in the first place in the rivers flowing from India into Bangladesh?

There is an international convention regarding transboundary rivers, but it is only a convention and not legally binding like the Law of the Sea. 

And it's not just India which is building dams. Dams are being built in Tibet as well. So, you [Bangladeshis] have to tell the Chinese, "please stop building the dams in Tibet." India will listen to you and talk to you, but are the Chinese going to listen?

They are building 23 dams in Tibet or have already constructed quite a few. They are also planning one of the biggest dams in the world on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, where the great bend takes place and where the Brahmaputra River picks up a lot of speed and power.

So essentially, these are multilateral issues, not just bilateral. And China has to be also told by Bangladesh that "your damming the rivers in Tibet is also affecting us, and it'll affect India."

Border killing is another big issue. Even in the ongoing month, two Bangladeshi teenagers have been killed along the Indo-Bangladesh borders, and the foreign adviser of our interim government said that this issue is a barrier to good ties with India. What's your take on that? How can border killing be stopped?

There should not be live firing at the border, especially at civilians, whether it's from Bangladesh or from India, I think that's the first thing. You cannot shoot to kill. You may use rubber bullets or use ways to persuade people not to cross the border illegally. 

But this is part of a larger issue. From Bangladesh, there's been quite a large amount of out-migration. Even your foreign ministry people and other scholars have acknowledged it. There's a large out-migration of people from Bangladesh into India, into both West Bengal and Northeast India.

So, that is at the heart of the matter. You have fences built by India on most of the borders. If fences are there, there will be forces, and the forces are there to maintain what they see as the sovereignty of the country they are representing.

Unless there is a de-escalation that ensures border security, border forces, and border police on both sides refrain from using live ammunition against civilians—regardless of whether they are involved in smuggling or other activities—and instead focus on apprehending or persuading them, this issue will persist.

But there needs to be a joint decision by the two sides, not just by one side, because there's a lot of cattle smuggling as well as other kinds of trafficking. And that does not happen just because of one side. There are involvements from both sides in these. 

How can the illegal migration from Bangladesh to various states of India be stopped?

I've written hundreds of articles on this issue. I've written about work permits, you know, which can be done, which can be issued to people to come and work legally. The whole problem is of economic distress and environmental distress on both sides. So, people should be able to go to each other's countries at work and go back eventually, but they should go legally with a permit and work in specific areas. The situation is not going to get better if we just take a rigid attitude to it. 

What about the growing animosity between the people of Bangladesh and India?

India is a very big country, and I believe that's partly the issue. People think that it's dictating other countries. But I don't think so. Also, I don't think the people of Bangladesh and India hate each other. It's more about discontent with the governments. Let's not mix up the two things.

I know people in Bangladesh who are originally from Assam. They've settled in Bangladesh. There's one of your great singers, Maksudul Haq. Originally his family is from Assam. He's a rock singer in Bangladesh. 

Dhaka University was one of the first universities of South Asia. Many people went and studied there before partition. People still come and go. 

So it's not people who have any hatred. There's a lot of misunderstanding on both sides because of social media and also because of water issues. 

Political issues are there, but water issues are the main thing. Like Farakka and so on. And that's a very old story going back more than 50 years, even before Bangladesh's birth.

Social media too creates lots of fake narratives and sometimes governments, political parties and other interested groups promote those fake narratives. So we have to be very careful and do a lot of fact checking.

Isn't mainstream media also responsible to some extent?

Nowadays, how many people really consume news from the mainstream media? People are watching YouTube. They're listening to other people. The traditional mainstream media, which primarily caters to metropolitan areas and city dwellers, no longer has the same influence it once did.