Young population believe BNP to get 39% of votes, Jamaat 21%, NCP 16% in national polls: Sanem survey

Young people of Bangladesh believe the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will win the 13th national election with 38.76% of the votes, according to a nationwide survey conducted by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

The survey, published today, revealed a shifting political landscape among the youth demographic, with survey participants saying Jamaat-e-Islami is likely to get 21.45% of the votes.

Illustration: Duniya Jahan/TBS Creative

The National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged following last year's mass uprising that toppled the Awami League (AL) government, is likely to receive 15.84% of the total votes, according to the survey.

The survey, titled "Youth in Transition: Navigating Jobs, Education, and Changing Political Scenario Post July Movement", also found that other Islamist parties would bag 4.59% of votes.

Although it's small, the survey's data indicates that if NCP, Jamaat, and other Islamist parties form an electoral alliance—an issue that has recently become a major topic of discussion in the political arena—they may become a major challenge to the BNP during the election.

Interestingly, the survey's participants also said that the ousted Awami League would get 15.02% of the votes if it were allowed to participate in the election.

The interim government banned the activities of the Awami League and all of its affiliated bodies from political activities, both online and offline, on 10 May 2025.

Meanwhile, the Jatiyo Party is likely to get 3.77% of the votes and other political entities 0.57%, according to the survey.

While presenting the survey during a roundtable at the capital's Brac Centre Inn, Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan said, "Since the survey's sample size is small, it does not represent the national sentiment.

"We can consider the findings as the sentiment of those who participated in the survey."

It was noted that 1,935 out of 2,003 (96.6%) of the respondents answered this particular question. General elections are anticipated in the first half of 2026.

When asked about their expectations regarding the upcoming national election, 40.89% of respondents said they were moderately optimistic that it would be free and fair.

Meanwhile, 27.91% were very optimistic, and 11.93% said they were fully optimistic.

On the other hand, 13.23% reported being only slightly optimistic, while 6.04% said they were not optimistic at all.

Regarding voting intentions, 76.78% of the surveyed youth said they intended to vote in the upcoming election.

Another 4.14% said they did not plan to vote, and 5.09% were undecided. Additionally, 13.98% of respondents said they were not eligible to vote.