With extradition request looming, what is the future of India-Bangladesh relations?
If Bangladesh formally asks for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, who has reportedly failed to secure a political asylum in any other country, will it further strain the diplomatic relations between the two countries?
Soon after the former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India and her government fell, the relations between India and Bangladesh entered a new phase, the contours and future of which remain unclear.
Sheikh Hasina had been a trusted more-than-a-friend to India, and the latter has always stated that in public. In the absence of Hasina in power, it was only natural that Bangladeshis would vent out their concerns about India's policies.
From wild rumours of RAW (Indian intelligence agency) operatives working alongside Bangladeshi law enforcers trying to suppress the mass uprising that eventually toppled Hasina, to the somewhat more nuanced speculation that the opening of Dumbur dam in Tripura caused the unprecedented floods in Bangladesh's Feni, Noakhali and Cumilla districts; the common man's belief that India would be upset at Hasina's ouster was not baseless, and it didn't take long to be proven true.
Last week, just a month after the interim government took charge in Bangladesh, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh asked the armed forces of India to analyse the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza as well as the 'situation' in Bangladesh, and be prepared for war 'to preserve peace'.
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Now, the armed forces do not start a war per se, the politicians do, and the analysis of the political situations and the interest in war or peace are also calculated by the latter. So asking the men in uniform to do the task of the politicians does not constitute a credible threat of war, but it surely shows that the Indian government is either upset, or it feels the need to put some pressure on the new Bangladesh government.
"I sense an adjustment or understanding gap in the relations, as there is a disruption in rhythm vis-a-vis their usual relations with Bangladesh. Bangladesh used to speak to India in a 'wavelength' (tone) under the leadership of Hasina, but now the wavelength has changed"
Indian leader of opposition and member of the Indian National Congress, Rahul Gandhi, also made that clear at a press conference held in Washington, DC just a day ago. When asked about the "attacks on minorities" in Bangladesh, Rahul said, "We are against any type of violence and want it to stop. It is the responsibility of the Bangladeshi government to end it as soon as possible. From our side, it is the responsibility of our government to apply pressure so that the violence stops."
As fact checkers and world media - including the BBC - has already shown, the perceived 'widespread attacks on the minorities' is an exaggeration of the ground reality in Bangladesh, mainly a perception caused by relentless propaganda by Hindu fundamentalist elements in India, who are basically upset by the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina.
The impact of the latest developments on the bilateral relations extends beyond mere rhetoric though.
Border killings have seen a spike with at least two dead and several injured in separate incidents. On 1 September, 14-year-old Swarna Das, a school student, was shot and killed by BSF gunfire at the Kulaura border in Moulvibazar. BSF handed over her body two days after the killing. Nine days later, in a similar incident, another Bangladeshi teenager, 15-year-old Jayanta Kumar Singh, was shot dead by BSF in Thakurgaon border. Jayanta's father and another individual were also injured in the shooting.
Also, the train service between the two countries has not resumed since the fall of Hasina government, and now several Bangladeshi airlines have significantly reduced or temporarily suspended their flight operations to India due to a decline in passenger numbers emanating from limited-scale resumption of visa services that got suspended following the fall of the former government.
In this context, the question has arisen that if Bangladesh formally asks for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, who has reportedly failed to secure a political asylum in any other country, will it further strain the diplomatic relations between the two countries?
"Although the Indian high commissioner has met the foreign affairs adviser and India is saying that they will release the credit funds and resume the infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, I don't think this will be done. And if the Bangladesh government sees that the loans are not provided and Indian workers are not coming back to resume railway construction, they will ask to stop the projects"
Foreign policy and diplomacy experts think there is already some stress in the relations as India has to cope with the new tone that their counterpart is speaking in, but a working communication is also there.
Former ambassador M Humayun Kabir says he senses what he calls an "adjustment or understanding gap" between the two countries, and the question of extraditing the former PM will complicate things.
"Yes, there might be some stress in the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India because of the special relationship of India with Sheikh Hasina. Although there is an extradition treaty between the two countries, the final decision to hand her over to Bangladesh authorities will be a political one. The decision will require a lot of thinking and courage and so on," he said.
"But the communication between the two countries at the diplomatic level is uninterrupted. We've seen Indian Premier Narendra Modi congratulate Dr Mohammad Yunus as soon as he (the latter) took oath as the chief adviser to the interim government. However, I sense an adjustment or understanding gap in the relations, as there is a disruption in rhythm vis-a-vis their usual relations with Bangladesh," the former ambassador said.
"Bangladesh used to speak to India in a 'wavelength' (tone) under the leadership of Hasina, but now the wavelength has changed," he explained.
The interim government of Bangladesh has made it clear that the country will pursue a relationship with India on a footing of equality and fairness.
Asked about India's silence over Bangladesh's request for a meeting of the two leaders on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York, Humayun Kabir is hopeful that the meeting might be held eventually.
"We are closest neighbours, and both the countries have interdependence. Goodwill and efforts are required from both sides, and I think we'll return to a normal state of interaction soon," he said.
Rahul Gandhi also said in the aforementioned press conference, "I think there are concerns in India about extremist elements in Bangladesh, and we share some of those concerns…However, I'm confident that things will stabilise in Bangladesh, and we will be able to have a relationship with the current government or any other government that follows."
Dr Shahiduzzaman, former professor of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, on the other hand, thinks the diplomatic relations are "bound to deteriorate".
"You can judge it by the repeated border killings – no apologies have been offered. Bangladesh has lodged protests but India has not even cared to reply to that," the professor said.
"Although the Indian high commissioner has met the foreign affairs adviser and India is saying that they will release the credit funds and resume the infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, I don't think this will be done. And if the Bangladesh government sees that the loans are not provided and Indian workers are not coming back to resume railway construction, they will ask to stop the projects," he added.
Professor Shahiduzzaman is rather doubtful if India will ever extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh because they – Indian ruling party and the opposition alike – call her a friend.
The professor thinks there will be pressure on the Bangladesh government from the political parties and "politically conscious groups" to reevaluate and cancel various agreements that were signed under Hasina government without effective discussion in the parliament.
"The request to extradite Sheikh Hasina will be futile. However, it will take time to make a formal request, and by the time things will deteriorate," he concluded.
Meanwhile, after the chief prosecutor of the Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) told media that it was taking steps to secure the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, the Indian government has kept mum on the matter, making it hard to presume its stance on the matter.
Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar, when asked about the matter in Berlin on Wednesday, said New Delhi conducts its interactions with governments through diplomatic channels, rather than responding to reports in the press.
"As you know there is a change in government in Bangladesh. And we obviously deal with the government of the day. How we deal with that is through diplomatic channels, not necessarily by the reports which will be reported in the press," Jaishankar said.
Bangladesh has a criminal extradition treaty with India which was signed in 2013, under Sheikh Hasina's government. The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) was also set up by Hasina in 2010 to investigate atrocities during the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan. Now she is facing murder cases filed against her in the ICT, and the government is likely to take advantage of the same extradition treaty she signed with India.
