Why Bangladeshis aren't seeing cheaper rice and wheat despite global price drops

For more than a year, international markets have seen a steady decline in rice and wheat prices. Thailand, India, Vietnam, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine - all major grain-exporting countries are now selling at significantly lower rates than they did in 2024. Yet in Bangladesh, consumers are paying more for the same essentials.

A recent food ministry report shows that between October 2024 and October 2025, domestic prices of coarse, medium, and fine rice continued to climb, alongside wheat and flour. 

The Trading Corporation of Bangladesh's latest figures suggest prices in Dhaka remain even higher today. This disconnect between global trends and local markets has left economists and consumers asking the same question: why are Bangladeshis not benefiting from cheaper global grain?

Al Jazeera previously reported that rice prices in Thailand fell from $535 per tonne in October 2024 to $374 a year later, while Vietnamese rice dropped from $547 to $356, and Indian rice from $495 to $354. 

Global wheat prices also declined across major exporters. Despite this, retail prices in Bangladesh rose - fine rice by more than Tk4 per kg, and flour by over Tk3.

Officials say there is no clear research establishing why domestic prices do not follow international movements. 

Food Secretary Md Masudul Hasan told TBS that "no official research explains why Bangladesh's rice, wheat, and flour prices do not align with international markets," making definitive conclusions difficult. However, he acknowledged that some traders hesitate to reduce prices because of "high-profit motives" and that only a limited number of businesses have the capacity to import at scale, giving them disproportionate market power.

Experts argue that Bangladesh's rice market largely operates independently of global influences. 

Drops in global rice and wheat prices fail to reach Bangladeshi consumers

AHM Shafiquzzaman, president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said rice pricing is driven not by imports but by "major millers and corporate groups". 

He believes current prices are Tk10–15 higher per kilogram than they should be, adding that proper monitoring of mills and government reserves in regions like Naogaon, Dinajpur, and Kushtia could help stabilise the market.

The wheat market, however, is more directly linked to international supply chains. Bangladesh imports the majority of its wheat, and importers say it usually takes up to two months for shipments to arrive after opening letters of credit. During this lag, global prices may fall, but domestic prices remain unchanged. 

Logistics expenses - from freight and insurance to port handling - have also risen, a factor highlighted by Meghna Group's deputy general manager, Taslim Shahriar, who argued that claims of falling global wheat prices do not fully reflect rising transportation costs.

Others note that even when wheat becomes cheaper internationally, consumers may still not see relief. Pran Group director Kamruzzaman Kamal explained that inputs for wheat-based products - edible oil, sugar, butter oil - remain expensive, as do labour and transport. As a result, bakeries and food manufacturers avoid reducing prices, arguing that production costs have not fallen proportionately.

Traders in Chattogram's Khawtunganj grain hub report no current supply shortage and expect prices may soften, but only "slightly" - and not immediately. Meanwhile, the country still lacks reliable data on true annual rice and wheat consumption, including usage in fisheries, poultry, and livestock, making it difficult to assess whether supply is keeping pace with demand. Without accurate figures, policymakers struggle to intervene effectively.

The result is a market structurally tilted against consumers. When global prices rise, domestic prices increase within days. But when international rates fall, the benefits rarely reach households in the same timeframe - if ever. Analysts say stronger competition, transparent stock reporting, faster import processing, and comprehensive demand data could help narrow this gap.

For now, however, Bangladeshi families continue to pay more for their daily staples, even as the rest of the world pays less.