What Bangladesh can learn from Sri Lanka's debt crisis

Sri Lanka's 2022 sovereign default offers a cautionary lesson for Bangladesh as external borrowing rises and large infrastructure projects expand.

A recent study by researchers from SOAS University of London, comparing the two countries, warns that similar policy patterns could heighten long-term risks if corrective steps are delayed.

From around 2008, both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka shifted towards infrastructure-led growth, investing heavily in ports, highways and energy facilities, often financed through external partners.

In Sri Lanka's case, about 65% of foreign debt accumulated during that period was linked to energy projects, many of which were underutilised and generated limited economic returns.

The result was rising debt without sufficient growth to service it.

The study notes that Bangladesh's external debt has grown rapidly in recent years, alongside significant cost escalations in major infrastructure projects.

Projects awarded through non-competitive government-to-government arrangements were found to be substantially more expensive than those procured through transparent bidding.

Weak oversight and overpricing increase repayment burdens over time.

One key lesson from Sri Lanka is that crises can emerge suddenly. 

Gradual increases in debt indicators may appear manageable, but vulnerability surfaces when a country struggles to meet interest or principal payments on time.

The researchers warn that Bangladesh could face a more exposed period between 2028 and 2032 if governance weaknesses persist.

To avoid such a scenario, the study recommends tighter expenditure control, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and improved project governance.

Ensuring competitive procurement, limiting cost overruns and strengthening institutional oversight would help contain debt risks and protect fiscal stability.