Trump's new 15% tariffs: What the experts say
While the revised rate is lower than the previous 20% reciprocal tariff, experts say the frequent shifts in US trade policy pose a greater risk than the tariff level itself.
Economists and trade analysts have urged Bangladesh to remain cautious after US President Donald Trump increased a newly announced tariff from 10% to 15%, despite a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that scrapped earlier 20% reciprocal duties.
While the revised rate is lower than the previous 20% reciprocal tariff, experts say the frequent shifts in US trade policy pose a greater risk than the tariff level itself.
Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's response should be guided by strategy rather than sentiment.
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He recommended using the 150-day window to identify areas of vulnerability, strengthen compliance with labour and environmental standards, and prepare for potential renegotiations.
Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, described the development as presenting both opportunities and risks.
If the reciprocal tariff framework is invalidated, he said, Bangladesh could seek a review of prior commitments within the agreement's legal provisions – provided exit clauses and notification requirements permit it.
However, he cautioned that the US could still impose uniform tariffs, new non-tariff barriers, quotas or export restrictions.
"A sudden withdrawal from the entire agreement could be strategically hazardous," he said, calling for a comprehensive review of existing commitments and preparation for alternative trade restrictions.
Former WTO cell director General Md Hafizur Rahman and Research and Policy Integration for Development Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque said Bangladesh may face pressure to implement pledges on increased imports of US goods, even though the agreement has not been ratified and is not legally binding.
Economist Selim Raihan, professor at the University of Dhaka, said predictability is nearly as important as tariff rates.
He cautioned that continued policy volatility in Washington could deter large, long-term orders, limiting any immediate gains for Bangladesh's garment sector.
