Bangladesh's macroeconomic conditions showing signs of improvement: StanChart study

Macroeconomic conditions in Bangladesh are showing early signs of improvement following a period of turbulence, a recent study by Standard Chartered Bangladesh shows.

Findings of the study, presented during the bank's flagship Global Research Briefing held on 25 June, suggest that inflation in Bangladesh has likely peaked, foreign exchange reserves have stabilised, the taka has regained some footing, and exports are beginning to pick up.

Besides, the bank's research estimates the country's GDP growth for FY26 at 5%.

At the event, Saurav Anand, economist, Standard Chartered, said the reforms undertaken in the previous year have significantly improved the macro-fundamentals and places Bangladesh on a strong footing in an extremely uncertain external environment. "Growth indicators are showing signs of picking up, inflation is cooling off, USD-BDT has stabilised and FX reserves are improving."

Naser Ezaz Bijoy, CEO, Standard Chartered Bangladesh, said although short-term indicators point to a potential turning point, their confidence is rooted in the strength of long-term fundamentals. "We believe the current stabilisation presents an opportunity for sustained growth — but achieving this will depend on coordinated policy measures, ongoing external support, and structural reforms to revitalize growth drivers amid persistent global geopolitical uncertainties."

As the chief guest, Lutfey Siddiqi, Chief Adviser's envoy for International Affairs, thanked Standard Chartered for convening the insightful event. 

He said the government remains fully committed to reform efforts aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign direct investment. "Moving forward, we must draw on collective expertise and align policy support to navigate global market complexities and drive sustainable, inclusive growth for Bangladesh." 

The research also highlighted key structural challenges that require sustained attention. 

Findings suggest that the country's private sector credit growth has moderated, and non-performing assets remain elevated. While external debt repayments remain manageable, caution is needed, particularly as revenue growth show signs of slowing. Fiscal consolidation and policy reforms—particularly in the areas of revenue mobilisation and subsidy rationalisation—will be essential for unlocking long-term growth.

Participants also discussed foreign exchange market dynamics, fiscal sustainability, trade competitiveness, and the evolving global demand landscape. The interim government's commitment to electoral reform and democratic transition was also noted as a key consideration for investor sentiment in the coming months.