Bangladesh cannot plan growth without climate resilience

Bangladesh is widely regarded as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries.

Its geography, high population density, river-based livelihoods and extensive coastal belt mean the impacts of climate change are felt more intensely than in many other places. Cyclones, floods, river erosion, rising salinity, heatwaves and erratic rainfall are no longer isolated disasters. They are creating long-term pressure on the economy, food security, employment and urban management. Climate risk, therefore, cannot be treated only as a disaster management issue; it must sit at the centre of national economic planning.

Several World Bank studies suggest Bangladesh's GDP growth could fall by around 2–3 per cent by 2050 if adequate adaptation measures are not taken now. Rising sea levels and growing salinity in coastal areas could also undermine agricultural output. In parts of southwestern Bangladesh, rice and vegetable production have already declined, pushing people towards cities in search of alternative livelihoods.

Bangladesh is often cited as a global success story in disaster management. Cyclone shelters, early warning systems and community-level preparedness have significantly reduced cyclone-related deaths. The 1970 cyclone killed nearly 300,000 people, while recent cyclones have resulted in far fewer casualties due to improved preparedness. This is a major achievement.

However, the current reality shows that disaster response alone is not enough. Climate change is now affecting productivity, infrastructure, public health and patterns of urbanisation. Climate risk management must therefore be integrated with national economic planning.

In recent years, climate issues have received greater attention in the national budget. According to the Ministry of Finance, around 7–8 per cent of the budget is now directly or indirectly allocated to climate-related activities. Projects are also being implemented through the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund and international climate funds. Even so, many experts argue the current financing is insufficient to address long-term climate challenges.

Climate risk must be embedded more clearly in infrastructure planning. When roads, bridges, ports, power plants or industrial zones are built without climate-risk screening, they may not remain viable over time. Ensuring climate resilience at every stage of development planning is therefore essential.

Agriculture needs a similar shift. Nearly 40 per cent of employment remains linked to agriculture, yet climate change is rapidly altering production patterns. Expanding salt-tolerant crops, modern irrigation and technology-enabled farming practices is now critical. Introducing climate-risk insurance for farmers should also be considered seriously.

Climate risk is also becoming a major challenge for urban economies. As rural livelihoods grow more uncertain, internal migration is increasing pressure on infrastructure in major cities, especially Dhaka. Sustainable urban planning and decentralised economic development are increasingly necessary to manage this transition.

International cooperation remains vital. Developed countries are historically responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, yet developing countries such as Bangladesh bear some of the heaviest impacts. Securing climate finance is therefore a global responsibility. Bangladesh has established a strong voice in global climate discussions, and that diplomatic effort must continue.

Climate change is no longer only an environmental issue; it is an economic reality. If it continues to be viewed mainly through a disaster-response lens, long-term development plans will face escalating risks. The time has come to treat climate risk as an essential component of national economic strategy.

First, climate-risk assessment should be mandatory at every stage of development planning. Before approving major infrastructure, industrial zones or large projects, authorities should assess area-specific risks, including flood exposure, salinity trends and temperature changes.

Second, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure should increase. Coastal embankments, durable roads, improved drainage to reduce waterlogging, and flood-resilient urban infrastructure need to be scaled up, with designs built for long-term climate stress.

Third, climate-resilient technologies in agriculture must expand faster. Bangladesh needs crop varieties suitable for salinity- and drought-prone areas, smart irrigation, and digital advisory services to sustain productivity. Climate insurance can also help farmers recover more quickly after shocks.

Fourth, decentralised economic development is necessary to reduce pressure on Dhaka and other major cities. Expanding industrial, education and healthcare opportunities in district and regional cities can reduce distress migration. Urban planning should prioritise green infrastructure and stronger water management.

Fifth, public–private cooperation is needed to expand climate financing. Public–private partnerships can help mobilise investment in renewable energy, green technologies and sustainable industrial development. Bangladesh should also strengthen its capacity to access international climate finance more strategically.

Finally, data-driven planning and research are essential. Universities, research institutions and policymakers should work together to conduct long-term climate-risk analysis and quantify economic impacts, so development planning becomes more realistic, resilient and sustainable.