Bangladesh's GDP to outpace Swiss, Swedish by 2039, but with huge per capita gap
It will be on track to become a $1.60-trillion economy, 21st largest, in 15 years, says London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research
Bangladesh is set to become the world's 21st largest economy by 2039, thanks to its successful diversification beyond textiles into pharmaceuticals and electronics, supported by infrastructure investments and an expanding demographic dividend, says the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
Bangladesh's economy is forecasted to outperform high-income countries like Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sweden and Belgium in terms of size in the next 15 years, according to long-term projections released by CEBR in its 16th annual World Economic Outlook report yesterday.
The ranking is based on the size of gross domestic product (GDP) in current US dollars, with Bangladesh on track to become a $1.60-trillion economy by 2039, according to the report titled World Economic League Table 2025.
With a GDP size of $434 billion, the country is currently the 37th largest economy globally among 189 countries. By 2039, it is projected to rise 16 positions, reaching 21st place.
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Yet, behind this economic ascent lies a contrasting reality: Bangladesh's GDP per capita is set to rank 123rd among 189 nations in 2039, with an estimated value of just $8,061.
This will place Bangladesh in the bottom 66th globally for per capita GDP, far behind high-income countries like Switzerland, which, with a GDP per capita of $156,773, is set to rank 3rd globally in 2039. Switzerland's per capita GDP will be 18 times higher than that of Bangladesh.
In a similar vein, countries like the UAE, which trail Bangladesh in overall GDP size, will still outpace it by a wide margin on a per capita basis. The UAE is expected to rank 12th globally with $105,209, 12 times higher than that of Bangladesh. Sweden and Belgium will follow in 18th and 22nd place in 2039.
Among South Asian countries, the Maldives is expected to lead the region in GDP per capita in the next 15 years, ranking 59th globally with $38,859. It is followed by Bhutan (106th) and Bangladesh (123rd).
Good news
Bangladesh is predicted to be just one place ahead of India (124th) on a per capita basis, a nation poised to become the world's third-largest economy by 2039.
Meanwhile, Pakistan (162nd) is projected to rank at the bottom in the region, followed by Nepal (160th) and Sri Lanka (134th).
Currently, Bangladesh ranked 143rd in GDP per capita in 2024, with a modest $2,521.
While Bangladesh is on track to become the 21st largest economy by 2039, its projected GDP per capita reveals a pressing issue: the imbalance between overall economic growth and individual prosperity.
Global economic leaders
The world GDP, in nominal terms, is estimated to amount to $110 trillion for 2024 as a whole and will double to $221 trillion by 2039, stated the CEBR.
It is expected that the United States will retain its crown as the world's largest economy, holding off competition from China.
India is firmly on track to solidify its position as a global economic powerhouse. By 2025, it is projected to supplant Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2028, India is expected to cross the $5 trillion milestone and by 2029, overtake Germany and secure its place as the world's third-largest economy.
Meanwhile, the CEBR forecasts showed that the World Economic League Table rankings for Tuvalu, Nauru, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Palau will remain unchanged over the next 15 years, staying at 189th, 188th, 187th, 186th, and 185th, respectively, as the world's smallest economies.
