42% revenue growth target 'historically impossible': Citizen's Platform

Bangladesh's proposed FY2026–27 budget faces a "near-impossible revenue challenge" that could force the government to choose between paying civil servants more and protecting the poor, the Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh warned today (18 May).

The government has set a revenue target of Tk6.95 lakh crore for FY27, implying a growth rate of at least 42% over the revised FY26 target, CPD Additional Research Director Towfiqul Islam Khan said while presenting a keynote at a pre-budget dialogue at a hotel in Gulshan, organised by the Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh.

"No historical benchmark supports this," he cautioned, noting that even the most optimistic compound annual growth rate from FY01 to FY19 stood at just 15.6% and would still result in a shortfall of Tk1.3 lakh crore.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected only Tk2.89 lakh crore in the first nine months of FY26 against a revised target of Tk5.03 lakh crore, meaning revenue must grow 96% in the final quarter alone to meet the annual goal—a scenario CPD described as virtually impossible.

Towfiq said the proposed Ninth Pay Commission recommendations, which would raise minimum government salaries from Tk8,250 to Tk20,000 and maximum salaries from Tk78,000 to Tk1,60,000, would require an additional Tk1.06 lakh crore beyond the government's current annual salary, allowance and pension bill of Tk1.31 lakh crore.

While the government is reportedly considering implementing only 50% of the recommended basic salary increase in FY27, at a cost of Tk30,000–35,000 crore, Towfiq cautioned that once rolled out, the pay scale cannot be reversed and will squeeze allocations for subsidies, development projects and electoral commitments.

A central theme of the presentation was what the Citizen's Platform called "the tax expenditure paradox." Bangladesh's NBR tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 6.6% in FY25, among the lowest in the world, while the country simultaneously forgoes roughly 6.9% of GDP through tax exemptions, based on FY22 data.

"Bangladesh forgoes nearly as much as it collects," Towfiq said, noting that direct tax expenditure alone was 148% of direct tax collection in FY21.

The IMF, in its April 2025 review, suggested that Bangladesh begin phasing out tax exemptions from FY27.

The CPD recommended a calibrated approach, retaining exemptions on remittance income and standard salary deductions while phasing out concessions to power and energy firms, microcredit institutions, large garment conglomerates and autonomous bodies.

Citizen's Platform also flagged concerns over news reports suggesting the government may reintroduce a tax amnesty for undisclosed income in FY27, calling it a move that would "directly contradict" the rationalisation agenda and breach a political consensus reached by all parliamentary parties.

On the debt front, the IMF has downgraded Bangladesh to a "moderate risk" of both external and overall debt distress. Debt service liability—interest plus principal repayments—accounted for 26% of total expenditure in FY24, exceeding the entire Annual Development Programme outlay by 15%.

Bangladesh's debt service-to-revenue ratio stood at 33.4% in FY24, nearly double the 18% threshold set by the IMF for countries with medium debt-carrying capacity.

The Platform's field assessment, conducted across 18 districts between May 2 and 11, found that flagship welfare programmes—the Family Card, Farmers Card, mid-day meals and free school uniforms—were showing early implementation cracks.

Beneficiary selection remained unclear, grievance mechanisms were barely functional, and food quality complaints were surfacing in the school meals programme.

The Family Card scheme, which aims to reach 50 lakh beneficiaries at Tk2,500 per month, is estimated to cost Tk14,500 crore. The Farmers Card, targeting 42.5 lakh beneficiaries at Tk2,500 annually, would cost approximately Tk1,062 crore.

Summing up the budget outlook, Towfiq framed the FY27 challenge as a collision between economic compulsion and political necessity. Revenue must grow 42% , debt servicing is approaching a peak, and IMF conditionalities demand reform, while the government simultaneously faces pressure to raise salaries, expand subsidies and deliver on 51 manifesto commitments.

"Budget FY2026–27 faces dual pressures, balancing economic stability and reforms while meeting political demands to deliver quickly, all within the tightest fiscal space in recent memory," he said.

Towfiq also urged the government to make the Ninth Pay Commission report public, publish FY25 tax expenditure estimates and bring transparency to ADP project documents, including feasibility studies and impact assessments. "History may ultimately remember this administration for its concluding budget rather than its beginning."

Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, a network of civil society organisations, is working to advance the Sustainable Development Goals at the national level.

The event brought together policymakers, economists, development practitioners and civil society representatives ahead of the national budget expected to be placed before parliament next month.