Covid-19 outbreak expected to continue exponentially: Experts

The upward trend in the spread of Covid-19 infections is to continue and the peak is not on the horizon, experts at a webinar of the Economic Research Group said on Monday.  

The keynote paper, presented by Susmita Dutta from the Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, used incidence case data to estimate the reproduction number of Covid-19 in Bangladesh.

Basic reproduction number Ro indicates how many secondary cases on average are infected by a single infected case in a completely susceptible population. 

The study employed a number of alternative techniques and estimated the time-specific reproduction number (Rt) to be close to 1.40 (ranging between 1.1 and 1.7). 

Another study finding was reported by Dr Shafiun Shimul of the University of Dhaka, which found the corresponding figure to be 1.12.

Participants in the webinar recognised that incidence cases, based on official reporting, are constrained by limited testing capacity and inadequate follow-ups to capture deaths and recoveries. 

Dr Atonu Rabbani of the University of Dhaka and Adnan Fakir of the University of Western Australia therefore suggested self-selection issues be addressed in modelling projection analysis of this nature.

The webinar titled "Estimation of Reproduction Number of Covid-19 in case of Bangladesh" was attended by researchers and members of the University of Dhaka, North South University, East West University, Brac University, and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics among others. 

It was moderated by Dr Sajjad Zohir, executive director of the Economic Research Group.