When is the referendum? Fresh row triggers fresh anxiety
The Consensus Commission has proposed that the referendum could be held either before or on the day of the national election
Fresh anxiety and uncertainty have gripped the political arena over the referendum on the July Charter, with tensions among BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami and National Citizen Party (NCP) over its timing further heightened by the National Consensus Commission's final report to the interim government.
Amid this renewed political debate and division, business leaders, economists, and analysts have expressed deep concern as major political parties are still not united when the general election is slated for February.
The commission proposed that the referendum could be held either before or on the day of the national election. However, Jamaat wants it before the national polls, while the BNP wants it on the same day, with two separate ballots.
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BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir today (30 October) questioned the interim government's authority to issue the July Charter Implementation Order, as suggested by the commission.
The party will never accept a referendum held other than on election day. Considering the time, cost, and the massive logistical arrangements similar to an election, it is unrealistic and ill-considered, he said.
Speaking on the BNP's proposal to hold the election and referendum on the same day, Jamaat Assistant Secretary General Maulana Abdul Halim reiterated his party's demand for a referendum by November.
Many forces from inside and outside the country will work to spoil the election. Many powerful forces, not minor ones, will attempt to thwart it. Sudden attacks may come.
He said, "The BNP can make such a demand if we wish. But we want the referendum to be held in November."
The NCP, also in favour of a referendum before the polls, has insisted that elections cannot take place in the country unless the July Charter is implemented.
Adding to the worries, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus himself on Wednesday (29 October) warned that the upcoming national election would be challenging, as forces from both home and abroad might attempt to disrupt the polls.
"Many forces from inside and outside the country will work to spoil the election. Many powerful forces, not minor ones, will attempt to thwart it. Sudden attacks may come.
"This election will be challenging. No matter how many obstacles arise, we must overcome them," CA's Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam quoted Yunus as saying at a high-level meeting on election preparations.
Alarm over political divide
Business leaders, economists, and analysts warned that continued political instability could undermine investor confidence and slow job creation. They stressed that holding a timely national election is essential to restoring business optimism.
This political divide is alarming for the business community, according to Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) President Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez and Bangladesh Employers' Federation President Fazle Shamim Ehsan.
Anwar urged the government to resolve complications arising from the referendum issue and ensure that polls are held as scheduled in February as per the plan.
"Businesspeople are waiting for an elected government. If the election is delayed, business confidence will erode further. That will severely hurt the economy, investment, and employment," he said.
Ehsan added that those attempting to obstruct the national election under various pretexts are "enemies of the country's economy and the nation itself".
He warned, "If an elected government doesn't come to power, investors will hold back, and both the economy and the country will suffer. The economic situation is already deteriorating across all indicators. There is no investment, no job growth, and there's visa restrictions from several countries.
"A quickly elected government is crucial. Otherwise, these problems will only worsen."
'Uncertainty cannot continue'
Business leaders are calling for a stable, elected government. Since the 2024 election, trade and commerce have faced uncertainty due to political instability, putting pressure on the economy.
In this regard, DCCI President Taskin Ahmed said, "We want the election to be held in February or as soon as possible, and a government with a political commitment to take office so that we can operate with confidence.
"Without a political government, a stable environment is impossible. Even foreign investors are reluctant to enter the market."
"We are not seeing any engagement with these businesses. Uncertainty cannot continue. We want all uncertainties removed and a stable government formed quickly," he added.
Analysts also said political divisions over the July Charter, its implementation order, and the proposed referendum are a matter of serious concern as the ensuing uncertainties are already impacting the economy.
"Since 5 August last year, everyone has hoped the sooner the elections are held, the better it would be for the country. Over the past year, instead of creating consensus through reforms and the formation of various commissions, the government has generated division, undermining national stability," said Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
She added that doubts are growing among the public on whether a national election will actually take place. If it does, they're worried whether it will be credible or flawed.
"There are fears about the potential consequences of a flawed election, which are shared by businesspeople and citizens alike. These uncertainties are already impacting the economy," Fahmida told TBS.
According to political analyst Altaf Parvez, everyone assumed that the referendum would cover only the issues on which political parties had reached a consensus, and everyone was prepared for that.
"But now, by including the issues listed in the note of dissent in the referendum, no party was ready for such a controversial vote. This is highly questionable and concerning," he told TBS.
Through this, the government is also putting the public at risk, he added. "Opinion is being sought from citizens on 48 different issues through a single yes/no vote. Asking for views on so many issues in a single vote could itself mean trouble for the people."
Is it feasible?
The main question now is whether a referendum on the July Charter is practically feasible.
Asked about it, Dr KM Mahiuddin, professor of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University, told TBS that there are significant differences among political parties over various provisions of the charter.
"If these differences are not reflected in the referendum, meaning citizens vote only on whether to accept or reject the charter as a whole without a chance to vote on each provision, how will citizens cast their votes?" he questioned.
Even if the charter is approved in the referendum, the debate will continue.
Another major question is how much ordinary voters actually know about the contents of the July Charter, Mahiuddin said. "If citizens are not familiar with its provisions, how can they make informed decisions? This raises concerns about the legitimacy and credibility of the referendum itself."
He added, "If the interim government's genuine goal was to hold a participatory election, a path for consensus could have been found through discussions.
"But looking at the pace and nature of the current process, many are questioning whether it is truly moving towards an election or is it a strategy to achieve some other objective."
