Violence against women and children peaks in summer – here’s why

Highlights:

• Police data shows violence against women and children rises in hotter months in Bangladesh
• Cases usually increase from March or April and peak in summer
• April 2026 saw a sharp 35.4% rise from March
• Heat, economic stress and poor livelihoods are seen as key drivers
• Experts link extreme weather to higher domestic and social violence
• Police say the trend needs formal study for confirmation

Bangladesh experiences hot weather from March to October, when people struggle with power cuts, and sleepless nights, overcrowded buses and exhausting humidity.

But hidden beneath the discomfort of summer, another pattern has repeatedly surfaced in police records: a seasonal rise in cases involving violence against women and children.

Cases involving violence against women and children comprise a broad category of violence and abuse directed at women and minors, including domestic violence, rape, sexual assault, trafficking, dowry-related abuse, and child marriage.

Monthly crime statistics from Bangladesh Police covering January 2021 to April 2026 show a recurring seasonal trend. Reported cases generally begin to increase around March or April, remain elevated throughout the summer and monsoon months, and decline towards the end of the year as temperatures cool.

Experts suggest that seasonal economic hardship, extreme weather stress, and institutional vulnerabilities may contribute to increased violence against women and children during hotter months in Bangladesh.

Climate-related disruptions to livelihoods, education, and social protection systems were also identified as key factors heightening risks for vulnerable groups.

Infographic: TBS

In 2021, cases rose from 1,597 in February to 2,268 in June before gradually declining to 1,426 by December. A similar pattern appeared in 2022, when reported cases climbed from 1,454 in February to 2,215 in August before falling sharply during winter.

The trend continued through 2023, 2024, and 2025 as well. The first four months of this year continue to reflect the same seasonal trajectory observed in previous years, with a clear early upward shift as temperatures began to rise. Reported cases stood at 1,281 in January, declining slightly to 1,181 in February before increasing to 1,485 in March. 

In April 2026, the figure rose sharply to 2,011 cases, marking a 35.4% surge from March, one of the highest early-year figures recorded during the period and consistent with previous seasonal increases.

Between January 2021 and April 2026, the highest number of reported women and children repression cases was recorded in June 2021, when Bangladesh Police documented 2,268 cases. The lowest number during the period was recorded in January 2024, with 1,043 cases reported.

Matching with global research

Researchers across multiple countries have found that incidents of interpersonal violence tend to rise during hotter periods, particularly in summer months.

A 2023 study found that for every 1°C rise in annual mean temperature, an estimated 4.49% increase in intimate partner violence prevalence is reported.

The study, published in JAMA Psychiatry, titled "Association of Ambient Temperature with the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low-and Middle-Income South Asian Countries", analysed survey data from approximately 1,95,000 women across three South Asian countries: India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

The researchers also found stronger links for physical and sexual violence, with physical violence increasing by around 8% and sexual violence by 7.3% during periods of higher temperature exposure.

According to the researchers, heat exposure may intensify emotional stress, physiological arousal, irritability, and difficulties with impulse control, particularly in households with limited access to cooling infrastructure.

The authors also warned that continued climate warming could substantially increase intimate partner violence prevalence across South Asia later this century if adaptation measures remain inadequate.

Another 2024 study titled "Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis," published in Environmental Health Perspectives, synthesised data from 83 qualifying studies selected from more than 16,000 screened papers and found that a 10°C increase in temperature typically increased the risk of violence by 9%.

The study noted that heat exposure can increase physical discomfort, stress, irritability, and impulsive behaviour, while also affecting emotional regulation and decision-making.

The authors further cautioned that temperature should not be viewed as the sole cause of violence, but rather as a contributing environmental factor that may intensify existing social and behavioural tensions.

Impact of extreme weather

AI Mahbub Uddin Ahmed, honorary professor, Department of Sociology, University of Dhaka, noted that seasonal environmental changes take a direct toll on household stability.

"Extreme weather puts immediate pressure on livelihoods," he told TBS. "In Bangladesh, day-wage earners, field labourers, and rickshaw-pullers simply cannot work when the heat suddenly spikes. This economic strain quickly translates into acute psychological stress, contributing to displacement and a measurable rise in domestic violence."

According to Prof Mahbub, this environmental strain heavily impacts the most vulnerable members of households. "When financial stress hits, children are often pushed into child labouror early marriage as a survival mechanism."

He pointed out that during severe heatwaves or winter cold waves, schools are disrupted and child protection services become less effective, leaving children exposed to exploitation.

Beyond climate factors, Prof Mahbub identified critical institutional gaps that sustain high crime rates. "There is a systemic failure where a culture of impunity and a massive backlog of legal cases have compromised the justice system," he explained, adding that these gaps are further compounded by patriarchy, drug addiction, and a pervasive culture of victim-blaming.

From a sociological perspective, Prof Mahbub emphasised that rapid rural-to-urban migration has dismantled traditional community oversight. "In villages, neighbours, relatives, and local imams actively look after children. In the cities, this informal social control is practically non-existent," he noted.

To counter seasonal aggression, Prof Mahbub suggested addressing direct biological stress factors. "During peak heat periods, modifying food habits by reducing the consumption of heavily spiced foods and red meat such as beef can reduce metabolic heat and irritability."

He suggested that even institutional habits must adapt, noting that "professional dress codes, like lawyers wearing heavy black coats designed for winter in England, are occupational hazards that worsen physical stress in a tropical climate."

Seasonal economic pressures

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, suggested that seasonal economic pressures in Bangladesh could be one of the factors behind increased violence against women and children during hotter months.

According to her, many people employed in agriculture and other seasonal occupations experience periods of underemployment outside peak harvest seasons, creating additional financial strain for families. 

She also noted that living costs often rise during summer months, whereas winter periods are comparatively less economically stressful due to lower expenses and greater food availability.

"Physically demanding occupations such as farming, construction work, and other forms of manual labour in extreme heat can also have psychological impacts, which may contribute to higher levels of domestic violence," she told The Business Standard.

Police stress need for formal study

When presented with the findings, the Additional Inspector General (IGP) of the Bangladesh Police Khondoker Rafiqul Islam acknowledged the significance of the trend. "This is a very compelling analytical insight," the additional IGP told this newspaper. 

He said, "While law enforcement has not previously conducted a formal study correlating seasonal climate patterns with violence against women and children, it warrants systematic evaluation. We cannot draw definitive conclusions without a thorough review of the data, but we will certainly look into this pattern."