Nine months after uprising, finding consensus on reforms remains tricky: The Economist

Nine months since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government by the student-led July mass uprising, finding consensus on reforms in Bangladesh has remained tricky, UK-based magazine The Economist said in a report published yesterday (15 May).

For 16 years Bangladesh has been shuddering from a continuous "earthquake", said Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, referring to the authoritarian regime of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party, reads The Economist report. 

As the country's interim leader, Yunus is trying to "fix everything that has been destroyed", he said. "We're moving in the right direction, and the people are with us. We are hopeful."

According to the report, since Hasina's toppling, the seeming extent of her regime's excesses has emerged. Last year, a white paper alleged that around $16 billion was siphoned annually during her reign. Cases against Hasina, including charges of murder, abduction and genocide, are piling up while she denies all charges. 

Parties across the political spectrum have demanded democratic changes to prevent the return of such abuses. But nine months since the revolution, making big changes is proving tricky, according to The Economist.

The report stated that the process began almost immediately after Hasina fled the country to India. In September Yunus began setting up commissions to provide ideas for reform in several areas, including elections, the judiciary and the constitution. These groups are staffed with experts from civil society and academia. To sift through the papers from these commissions, the government set up another one: the National Consensus Commission. This group has compiled all the recommendations (there have been 166 so far) and put them on a spreadsheet to which 35 political parties have contributed. 

The consensus commission will work with political parties to establish a "July Charter" that will allow elections to take place and usher in a "new Bangladesh", said Yunus, as quoted by The Economist.

Observing that finding consensus is tricky, the report stated that politicians and the public disagree over what commissions should even exist. Some grumble that there should have been one for textiles, the pillar of Bangladesh's economy; others complain about the inattention to education. The biggest controversy has been sparked by a commission that was formed belatedly on women's reform. Its recommendations included changes to Islamic inheritance law that give women greater rights and have sparked mass protests by Islamist parties.

Still, reformers remain optimistic, the report observed, stating that Ali Riaz, vice-chairman of the consensus commission, pointed to some changes that have already been implemented, such as an independent process for appointing judges to the High Court. 

The second phase of the dialogue will begin soon after 15 May but Riaz is confident of having a charter finalised by August, the report stated.

Should that timeline be met, it would mean elections as early as December this year, while Yunus insists polls will take place no later than June 2026 and that he will not take part, the report said. 

However, according to The Economist, the delay is already coming with some costs. The interim government has steadied prices and the banks, but growth remains weak. In addition, the political situation is fragile while protests on the street have become routine. According to one survey, nearly 60% of those polled believe that law and order have not improved since the regime change. 

The protesters' most common demand is for retribution against the Awami League. On 12 May, the election commission suspended the party's registration, banning it from contesting any elections. But for all the revulsion for the party, it still enjoys some support, the report stated. 

Mohammad Arafat, a senior Awami League official, insists that the party had the "mandate of the people", had been usurped by "jihadists" through violence and that it would "fight to claim their rightful place in Bangladesh", reads the report. 

Even out of power, the Awami League may still be able to cause tremors across the country, the report said.