Despite advance intelligence, police struggle to prevent violence amid hesitation

A string of cocktail explosions, arson attacks and flash processions across Dhaka in recent months has exposed a troubling question for the city's police: why are they repeatedly arriving after the violence, despite having intelligence that warned of it in advance? 

Officials interviewed by The Business Standard cite lingering fear within the force since 5 August 2024, frequent transfers, newly posted officers with limited local experience, weak intelligence-field coordination and reluctance to take decisions that could later have consequences for individual officers.

Infographics: TBS

Police can still investigate incidents using CCTV footage, technological analysis and informants, but their ability to track movements and disrupt preparations beforehand has weakened, a Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) joint commissioner told TBS. 

The gaps were exposed during a recent flash procession of the banned Awami League in Gulshan. As police moved to disperse them, two crude bombs were detonated, according to police. Five unexploded cocktails were recovered.

Law enforcement sources said an intelligence agency had warned in August that the banned party and its affiliates could take to the streets from September, with activity potentially rising in October and November. Officials said the warning was not fully translated into field-level preparedness.

The DMP later withdrew Gulshan Deputy Commissioner (DC) M Tanvir Ahmed and Officer-in-charge (OC) Md Daud Hossain, citing administrative reasons. 

A batchmate of Tanvir told The Business Standard that the DC knew of a large gathering and officers of the entire division, including the OC, had been alerted that morning. But they expected a small procession after Friday prayers and took inadequate measures, the source said.

An additional deputy commissioner of the Gulshan DB branch said station police lacked sufficient field-level intelligence and that fear also kept officers from confronting the procession.

Fear of 'consequences' among field-level officers

A Deputy Inspector General, speaking on condition of anonymity, said fear after 5 August 2024 persists. Police deaths, station attacks and cases against personnel have left many officers insecure. A DC of a key Dhaka division said field officers worry they could later be held responsible for any tough action taken.

"During the Awami League government, subordinates would follow whatever their seniors instructed without question. After 5 August, however, police personnel from officers-in-charge downwards are reluctant to follow instructions, fearing cases, job losses, transfers and other consequences," he said.

Several OCs have also asked for written instructions before acting on them, officials said. This has even caused friction between the Police Service Association (cadre) and Police Association (non-cadre). 

Intelligence coordination emerges as key issue

Two Police headquarters DIG- and additional DIG-level officials said intelligence-sharing between units has weakened. A DIG posted after 5 August said senior officers are consumed by postings, transfers and organisational affairs.

"Those matters leave them with little time or attention to monitor the field situation or coordinate information between different units," he said.

A Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) deputy commissioner said the unit, which monitors militant networks, is pulled into other duties. "We are not getting enough time for intelligence surveillance, information gathering and long-term monitoring of potentially violent networks. It also seems our senior management is not particularly interested in those areas," the officer said.

The Anti-Terrorism Unit (ATU), which performs similar functions, has faced a comparable situation.

He said CTTC chief Mohammad Shamsul Haque has not met the full team once since taking charge. Another Additional Deputy Commissioner (ADC) questioned the 2025 police awards, which list Shamsul Haque (BPM-Service) and IGP Md Ali Hossain Fakir (Bangladesh Police Medal).

"I was surprised to see our unit chief's name on the list. He joined this post only in May this year. Yet he is receiving the medal for work between March 2025 and February this year," the ADC said.

'Many will leave the country, what happens to us?'

Officials said uncertainty over the political trajectory also weighs on lower-ranking personnel. A recent viral audio recording involving former Cantonment OC Rakibul Hasan intensified debate in the force. 

Officials said the issue was less a belief that ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina would return than uncertainty over how officers' decisions would later be judged. 

An OC told TBS that Rakibul's concern reflected what many privately think. "He got into trouble for saying what many others think but don't say out loud. Many senior officials running the administration now may leave the country if the government changes. Otherwise, they will retire with all the benefits. What will happen to us?" he said.

Police leadership says performance is strong

Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said on 20 September that the government was "not at all alarmed" by the law-and-order situation, adding that arrests are being made promptly after incidents and CCTV footage is being examined.

NP Acting Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi criticised police inaction, saying, "If the police want, they can arrest the criminals within an hour," and urged swift action, arguing that post-5 August reluctance or fear should no longer persist as a democratic government is in power now.

Following separate meetings between the home minister and senior police officials on 19 and 20 September, police units, range DIGs and SPs were warned of disciplinary action if law and order deteriorated in their areas. 

Four Dhaka OCs have already been transferred within a month.

DMP Commissioner Mosleh Uddin Ahmed said round-the-clock patrols had been ordered in all police station areas, particularly from night until morning. IGP Ali Hossain Fakir, meanwhile, expressed satisfaction with the force's performance, saying, "I believe our success is 100%."