Dengue situation feared to be dire this year

Experts have warned that despite the low presence of dengue patients in Dhaka's hospitals, there is no room for complacency. Intermittent rainfall and the lack of intensive mosquito control efforts could lead to a worsening dengue situation this year.

With the onset of the monsoon season, the dengue situation in the country has already begun to deteriorate. Outside Dhaka, Barisal Division has reported the highest number of dengue cases, while Dhaka South City Corporation has recorded the highest number of dengue-related deaths. Experts say that vector control efforts are not satisfactory given the level of transmission.

According to the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), the highest number of dengue cases this year was recorded in May. However, the rate of infections has been highest in June. In the first 15 days of June alone, 1,643 people were admitted to hospitals with dengue. In May, 1,773 cases were recorded. In January, there were 1,161 cases, while February, March, and April saw 373, 336, and 701 cases respectively.

Up to 15 June this year, 5,988 people have been hospitalised with dengue and 30 died. Among those infected, 59% are male and 41% are female. Barisal Division has seen the highest number of patients (2,723), while Sylhet Division has recorded the lowest (21).

Dr Khabirul Bashar, a medical entomologist and professor at Jahangirnagar University, told The Business Standard that there is a high risk of this year's dengue situation being the worst in recent times. 

"Surveys in Dhaka and elsewhere show a higher mosquito density compared to the same time last year. There are also more patients this year. High mosquito density and more cases suggest that the dengue situation may become severe this year," he said.

"Now that scattered rain has started, it is an ideal time for Aedes mosquitoes to breed. Their numbers can surge at any moment, although August, September, and October are generally considered the peak dengue season," the professor added.

He further stated that dengue outbreaks are not limited to Dhaka. Some districts outside the capital are also showing signs of worsening outbreaks. "We are detecting higher Aedes mosquito densities in Barisal, Barguna, Chandpur, Gazipur, Mymensingh, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Cox's Bazar, and Chattogram. These areas may see worse outbreaks than last year."

The expert stressed that Aedes breeding sources must be destroyed. Where there are staff shortages, that must be addressed to strengthen mosquito control efforts. The public must also ensure no water accumulates in or around their homes.

Aedes mosquitoes typically begin to spread in June. During this time, larvae develop in stagnant clean water left behind by rain. As temperatures rise after rain, Aedes eggs in this water hatch quickly into adult mosquitoes.

Public health experts warn that if effective measures are not taken against Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue situation could spiral out of control by July and August.

Public health expert Dr M Mushtuq Husain told TBS that the number of dengue cases is likely to rise this year. "Mosquito infestations are worse than last year. Without going beyond conventional efforts, it will be impossible to control dengue," he said.

He also added, "Every year, many people die from dengue. But this is not an untreatable disease — it is preventable. We already know the necessary medical and scientific methods to control it. This is not an unknown illness. 

"The government, health ministry, and local authorities must treat dengue as an urgent issue and work together. The dengue control budget must be increased. Students could also be engaged, as they can play a positive role in mosquito control."

Analysis of DGHS data shows that 2023 was the worst year for dengue in Bangladesh. A total of 3,21,179 people were hospitalised and 1,705 died. By 15 June 2023, the number of dengue cases had reached 3,148, with 24 deaths. In comparison, by 15 June 2024, 3,207 people had been hospitalised with dengue and 40 had died.

Up to 15 June this year, 5,988 people have been hospitalised and 30 have died from dengue.

Meanwhile, regular mosquito control activities at Dhaka South City Corporation have been hampered due to political protests over the swearing-in of mayoral candidate Ishraq Hossain. The Nagar Bhaban has been locked for a month.

Residents of Dhaka North City Corporation have also complained that mosquito control activities are not being conducted effectively. In addition, the local government has failed to strengthen mosquito control in towns and suburban areas outside Dhaka.

Experts fear that under such circumstances, the dengue situation may reach alarming levels.