Weather, new coal power boon for uninterrupted power supply in March

Infograph: TBS

Despite widespread fears over adequate supply of power and energy in March, the government has been able to make a good start to the energy-hungry, challenging month thanks to friendly weather and new coal power.

With last year's experience, the authorities were uncertain whether they would be able to meet the energy demand during the ongoing irrigation season, which started in February and is expected to continue through May, a month-long Ramadan, and the warmer summer season.

With two months of the irrigation season and one-third of Ramadan having gone by, the power supply situation has been found to be adequate across the country, thanks to the cold and rainy weather and a gas supply boost to power plants through import resumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market.

Besides, the commissioning of three new coal-fired plants has also been a boon to generating adequate electricity.

In addition, a down-trending global energy market coupled with remittance growth and export earnings growth have helped the government buy primary energy – gas, oil, and coal – from the international market.

Speaking about the power supply situation, the prime minister's Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Adviser Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury said the government has increased gas supply to the gas-powered plants by resuming LNG imports from the spot market, which has helped meet demand for electricity.

"If the Russia-Ukraine war situation does not impact the global energy market in the future, the electricity supply situation will remain as good as it is now," he added.

Summer last year was terrible in the recent history of Bangladesh as the country dealt with hours-long load shedding for months.

Usually, power distribution companies see high demand during Ramadan due to energy consumption during iftar and sehri. Besides, power consumption grows by around 10% in every alternate year.

But demand for power this Ramadan has not increased compared to last year due to rains and cold weather.

On 29 March last year, with Ramadan still days away, maximum demand for electricity was 12,769 megawatts during the peak hours of 5pm-11pm.

This year on the same day, maximum peak demand was 12,678MW, around 100MW down from last year, according to the Bangladesh Power Development Board's (BPDB) data.

The family of Solimullah Khan, a resident of the capital's Pallabi, ran ACs at night last year, especially while saying their Ramadan Taraweeh prayers.

"But this year, we do not need the air conditioners yet as it's not as hot as last year," Solimullah said.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department forecasted 49mm of average normal rainfall in four days in March. But it recorded 87.6mm of rainfall in nine days.

Uninterrupted irrigation

At present, some 15 lakh irrigation pumps of different types are operating, and 25% of them, or nearly 3.75 lakh pumps, are electricity-driven, requiring around 1,500MW of additional electricity during the season.

Muhammad Badiul Alam Sarkar, deputy chief engineer (minor irrigation division) at the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), told TBS that normal irrigation work has been going on at Boro paddy fields across the country.

"Along with the adequate power supply, this year farmers are also blessed by nature with rains," he said.

The Bangladesh Rural Electrification Board, the largest power distribution wing of the Power Division, supplies electricity in rural and remote areas of the country through its 80 samities.

Its member for distribution and operation Devashis Chakravorty said, "As of now, there is no demand shortfall, and we have been supplying uninterrupted electricity across the country. Rainy and cold days in March have also been a big help in keeping the power supply in line with the demand."

Normally, April is a warmer month, according to the Met office.

"If the temperature does not rise sharply, we are hopeful of an uninterrupted supply ahead," added Devashis Chakravorty.

Coal-based plants to ease demand pressure

BPDB data says power generation from coal-based plants has increased by around 1,100MW compared to last year.

Of the coal-based generation, around 550MW to 600MW comes from Adani's Godda plant, while the first unit of Rampal Maitree Super Thermal 1,320MW plant and Barishal Electric 307MW are generating electricity at half their capacities.

This new generation of coal-fired plants has become a boon for the government by reducing dependence on expensive diesel-based plants.

Supply from these newly commissioned coal-based plants may increase to 1,500MW if demand increases due to heat waves, said the BPDB's top officials.

Power Division officials are optimistic about a balanced demand and supply of gas and energy in the upcoming summer with the existing infrastructure and current energy market situation.

Gas supply to jump up with LNG

Due to the volatile global energy market and the foreign currency crisis, the government suspended LNG imports from the spot market last June, which has lowered the total gas supply to the consumer end.

Besides, the country limited the import from long-term suppliers with a view to reducing the forex payment pressure. At some point last July, total gas supply dropped to 2,500 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 2,600 mmcfd, while LNG share was only 496 mmcfd.

In order to meet the summer demand, however, the government chalked out a plan to increase the total gas supply up to 3,000 mmcfd by injecting around 700 mmcfd of gas from LNG sources and continue it until next June, said Zanendra Nath Sarker, chairman of Petrobangla.

Under the two long-term contracts with Qatar and Oman, Bangladesh can import around 56 cargoes per year. Normally, the country takes four to five cargoes each month.

For summer demand to be met, however, Petrobangla has planned to import five cargoes from long-term contracts each month and two cargoes from the spot market, to inject around 700 mmcfd from LNG sources, as noted in a document obtained by TBS.

Under the plan, Petrobangla has already increased LNG imports from long term suppliers and resumed purchases from the spot market.

Gas supply to the national gas transmission grid, with long term LNG and spot market along with local field production, has increased by roughly by 250 mmcfd to 300 mmcfd, totalling the volume to 2,909 mmcf.