Bangladesh traded democracy for development over two decades: Study
Growth over governance defined Bangladesh’s rise — and its democratic fall
Bangladesh prioritised economic growth and public goods provision over democratic accountability for more than two decades, a trade-off that delivered rapid development but left governance fragile as the country now seeks a new political settlement, according to a report released ahead of a February 2026 election and constitutional referendum.
The report, titled "Development over Democracy? Economic Growth and Political Repression in Bangladesh," analyses governance trends as voters prepare for a general election and a referendum on the proposed "July Charter" on 12 February 2026, following the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Drawing on data from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), the report highlights what it calls a "striking paradox": while democratic accountability and state capacity declined sharply between 2000 and 2021, the provision of public goods reached record levels.
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Overall democratic accountability fell to 44 in 2021 from 60 in 2000, driven largely by a drop in electoral accountability to 48 from 68 amid political repression and flawed electoral processes. State capacity peaked in 2008 before declining to 21 in 2021, below its level at the start of the period.
By contrast, public goods provision rose steadily to 59 in 2021 from 34 in 2000, outpacing comparable gains in neighbouring India and Pakistan.
The report attributes this outcome to a model it describes as "authoritarian developmentalism," under which limited political accountability enabled rapid economic expansion. Between 2000 and 2025, Bangladesh recorded the world's fourth-highest per capita GDP growth, driven almost entirely by a highly concentrated, export-oriented textile industry.
According to the report, weak oversight from the media, judiciary and international partners gave the state a "free hand" to support the sector, including maintaining low wages and favourable conditions for industry lobbyists. Clothing products accounted for nearly all of Bangladesh's $54.5 billion in exports by 2023, allowing policymakers to focus infrastructure and policy support on a single high-growth sector.
The government also relied heavily on non-governmental organisations and foreign aid for service delivery. Groups such as BRAC expanded microcredit, health and education services, improving economic literacy and infrastructure while remaining largely focused on implementation rather than challenging political authority.
The authors argue the approach mirrored early development paths in Taiwan and South Korea, where export-led growth under authoritarian rule preceded later democratic transitions. However, they warn Bangladesh faces a more difficult external environment.
Unlike the Asian Tigers, which benefited from support from a "benign hegemon," Bangladesh now confronts punitive US tariffs on its garment exports, cuts to foreign aid and intensifying competition from China, the report says.
Domestically, the outlook is complicated by fiscal strain and inequality. The top 10% of Bangladeshis control more than 40% of national wealth, while the report notes political parties remain focused on maintaining a "business-friendly environment" rather than redistribution.
Following Hasina's removal during what the report calls the "July Revolution," an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has taken charge amid an acute fiscal crisis. The administration has proposed the July Charter, described in the report as a "historical document," aimed at reversing democratic backsliding.
Proposed reforms include presidential term limits, the creation of a bicameral legislature, bolstered judicial independence, and administrative and anti-corruption changes recommended by multi-party commissions. Approval of the charter is subject to the February 2026 referendum, which will be held alongside the general election.
The report concludes that while the July Charter could provide a "stronger foundation" for long-term stability, Bangladesh cannot simply replicate earlier East Asian development models. To reconcile economic growth with democratic liberty, it says, the country must "blaze its own trail" in a fragmented and less supportive global order.
