'Bangladesh now has the weakest opposition in its history': BIGD's Mirza M Hassan

Bangladesh is currently witnessing the weakest opposition in its history, according to Mirza M Hassan, senior research fellow at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), who warned that the country's political trajectory remains fragile despite the July Uprising.

Speaking at the opening session of a day-long conference titled "The Current State and Future of Democracy in Bangladesh" at the BRAC Centre in Dhaka, Hassan said the opposition has become unusually weak because the Awami League is no longer politically active, Jamaat-e-Islami lacks confidence, and the National Citizen Party (NCP) remains too small to emerge as a major force.

Presenting his keynote paper, "Trajectory of Non-Democracy in Bangladesh," Hassan analysed the country's politics through the "access order" theory.

Responding to a question from investigative journalist David Bergman during the discussion, he said Bangladesh is now experiencing a "lighter version" of repression that could harden into a more severe form within a year.

He argued that access to political power increasingly depends on the capacity for force and violence, citing growing tensions between the BNP and the NCP as evidence. Describing Jamaat's strategy as a "waiting game", he said the party is trying to project itself as a moderate, liberal opposition while waiting for a more favourable political opportunity.

Referring to the July Uprising, Hassan said it raised hopes of dismantling authoritarianism, one-party dominance and dynastic politics, but the transition has remained largely elite-driven.

"When ruling elites fail to incorporate opposition elites into existing political arrangements and processes, political conflict becomes inevitable," he said.

To break the political deadlock, Hassan proposed exploring direct democracy as an alternative to conventional electoral democracy. Election-centric democracy alone cannot fully address citizens' aspirations, he argued, noting that even the US and Europe are debating "politics without politicians". Bangladesh, he said, should gradually move towards a system that allows citizens to participate more directly in governance.

He also said the citizen-led momentum created by the July Uprising had failed to develop into lasting political institutions, allowing traditional political forces to regain strength and political advantage.

The conference opened with remarks by BIGD Executive Director Imran Matin and also featured speeches by The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam and Supreme Court lawyer Sara Hossain.