Bangladesh needs a 'Nelson Mandela moment': Legal scholar tells Economist

Bangladesh "sorely needs a Nelson Mandela moment" to move beyond political vengeance and rebuild its fractured politics, Arafat Khan, a legal scholar at the London School of Economics, said in a recent article published by The Economist.

"Lasting change will require bringing all Bangladeshis together, not dishing out punishments," he said in the piece, marking nearly a year since the fall of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule.

Published yesterday (26 June), the article, titled "A Big Mistake by Bangladesh: Retribution Is Vying with Reform", examines the fallout from last year's uprising that brought an end to Hasina's government.

Eleven months on, progress remains mixed. While some economic indicators have improved, political polarisation is still intense. Demonstrations continue, and major parties remain bitterly divided.

Despite this volatility, the economy is showing tentative signs of recovery. According to the Asian Development Bank, GDP growth is projected to slow slightly to 3.9% this fiscal year, down from 4.2%. Yet inflation has eased from 12% in July 2023 to 9% in May.

Remittance flows are steady, and foreign reserves have strengthened. International lenders, including the IMF and ADB, have approved fresh loan packages, encouraged by efforts to clean up the banking sector and recover funds siphoned overseas.

Still, the reforms have so far targeted "low-hanging fruit", said Chandan Sapkota of the ADB. Structural problems persist. Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on garment exports, suffers from a crippling infrastructure gap, and struggles to generate jobs for its growing youth population.

These weaknesses are particularly concerning as the country faces American tariffs and aid cuts, the article noted.

On the foreign policy front, the article highlights growing concern over Chief Adviser Yunus' tilt towards China. He signed multiple agreements during a March visit to Beijing, and Bangladesh recently held its first trilateral summit with China and Pakistan.

India responded by withdrawing key trade facilities, including a trans-shipment route through Indian airports. While public opinion in Bangladesh strongly favours China, experts warn that alienating both Delhi and Washington could prove costly.

The article says the biggest question now is how Bangladesh will restore democratic order.

Human Rights Watch has accused the interim government of "arbitrarily" targeting Awami League supporters in a manner that "mirrors the previous government's abusive clampdown on political opponents".

Yunus has proposed holding elections in February 2026, with a possible extension to April. He has also floated a "July Charter" to guide electoral reforms and commit future governments to key changes. Nearly 150 parties have registered for the next polls – double the previous figure.

Among them is the student-led NCP, born out of last year's protests. But recent surveys show it trailing behind more established parties. The BNP leads with 42%, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami at 32%.

The banned Awami League, though barred from the ballot, still commands 14% support – and likely more, say analysts, as many voters are reluctant to reveal their preferences.

In a separate editorial titled "Banning the Opposition Is No Way to Revive Bangladesh's Democracy", The Economist argued that while the Awami League has a troubling record, voters should still be allowed to choose.

"Not everyone in Bangladesh's oldest party is tainted," the piece noted, adding that its parliamentary presence could strengthen democratic accountability.

The piece warned that the ban "risks throwing Bangladesh back into a cycle of retribution". It urged, "Bangladesh's leaders should unban the Awami League and let it contest a fair election."

It concluded that the party is unlikely to win even if allowed to campaign freely.

"But its presence in parliament might bolster the opposition, which would help keep the victors on their toes. Building a new Bangladesh requires reconciliation, not revenge," said The Economist.