With 49.97% votes, BNP set to secure majority also in upper house
According to the Election Commission’s party-wise vote calculation report published today (15 February), BNP received 49.97% of votes while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami received 31.76%.
Highlights
- BNP likely to dominate the proposed upper house
- BNP got 49.97% votes, Jamaat 31.76%
- Upper house to include BNP, Jamaat, NCP, Khilafat Majlis, Islami Andolan
- Single-party dominance may limit checks and balances
- Opposition shadow cabinets could provide some accountability
Following the 13th National Parliamentary Election, the BNP is poised to gain a majority in the proposed upper house of parliament, based on vote counts and lower house results.
According to the Election Commission's party-wise vote calculation report published today (15 February), BNP received 49.97% of votes while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami received 31.76%.
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Although results in Chattogram-2 and Chattogram-4 are not yet officially announced, BNP candidates are reported to have received the highest votes in these areas. Analysts say this could ensure BNP a simple majority in the upper house.
If the proposed upper house is formed based on vote share, BNP, Jamaat, NCP, Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis, and Islami Andolan Bangladesh will have representation.
Independent candidates received 5.79% of the votes. If they form an alliance, they could win six seats.
The upper house has 100 seats, and only parties with more than 1% of votes will have representatives. The July charter proposed forming the upper house based on votes, while BNP's election manifesto suggested forming it based on seats.
Among the 297 declared constituencies, BNP won 209 seats and Jamaat 68. If the upper house is formed on a seat basis, BNP would get 70 seats, Jamaat 23, and NCP two. Seven independents won, and an alliance of independents could secure three seats.
In the lower house, 50 reserved women's seats will be allocated based on elected members. BNP is expected to receive at least 35 seats, while Jamaat would get 11.
Will the upper house serve as a true check and balance?
Political analysts say if the same party holds a clear majority in the upper house as in the lower house, the possibility of achieving balance in lawmaking and policy decisions is limited.
Dhaka University political science professor Sabbir Ahmed told The Business Standard that BNP's current vote share of 49.97% could increase when results from Chattogram-2 and Chattogram-4 are declared. He added that whether the upper house is formed based on votes or seats, BNP's single-party dominance is likely to continue.
Another analyst noted that in Bangladesh, there is little tradition of members voting beyond party loyalty. If the government has a two-thirds majority in the lower house, it could pass laws easily as its members would also hold a majority in the upper house.
Experts said the upper house could effectively act as a formal approval body for parties with over 51% public support.
However, the formation of shadow cabinets by opposition parties could provide constructive criticism and accountability at the policy level.
Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP have already indicated plans to form shadow cabinets.
Political scientists also pointed out that the upper house system is mainly designed for federal countries such as the United States, India, and Canada, though it exists in unitary states like the United Kingdom.
In Bangladesh, with a large single-party mandate, questions remain over how neutral the upper house can be. Analysts said the ruling party may act responsibly, but structurally, the opportunities for the upper house to control the government remain limited.
