India’s regional political forces face decline amid rise of BJP-Congress dominance
Across India’s political landscape from north to south and east to west, several regional outfits, once dominant in their respective states and frequently decisive in national coalitions, now stand decimated in elections, yielding space either to BJP or Congress
The defeat of two major regional parties Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazagham in recent assembly elections has forced them to the strategy drawing board to remain relevant as BJP and Congress, with pan-India presence, are expanding their footprints across the country.
In the opposition bloc INDIA, formed in mid-2023 to jointly take on BJP in parliamentary elections of 2024, Congress is the only party with a pan-India presence. While opposition parties could not prevent BJP from returning to power in the general elections two years ago, they succeeded in keeping the Modi-led party from securing a majority on its own.
Congress is now in power in three Himachal Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka and is set to form a government in Kerala. With Congress and other opposition parties competing with each other to position themselves as the leader of the anti-BJP combine, it has the potential to set off fresh equations in INDIA.
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Across India's political landscape from north to south and east to west, several regional outfits, once dominant in their respective states and frequently decisive in national coalitions, now stand decimated in elections, yielding space either to BJP or Congress.
The emergence of caste-based regional parties, for which regional flavour is more important than national issues, has come at the expense of weakened pan-India parties like Congress and BJP since late 1980s. Since the start of coalition politics and governance at the Centre, the national parties' dependence on regional parties is critical for survival particularly when the lead party lacks majority on its own like the incumbent Modi government is.
Over the last few years, BJP has expanded its hold across 21 states in India as the regional parties fell into decline.
Today, major regional outfits across India's political canvas from north south to and east like SP, DMK, TMC, BSP, BJD, Shiromani Akali Dal, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), RJD, Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Left parties are out of power. In most cases, the vacuum is now dominated by BJP. Only South India has been largely elusive for BJP, barring for a brief period in Karnataka.
The states where regional parties are still holding on to power are Andhra Pradesh (Telugu Desam Party, an ally of BJP), Sikkim, Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya.
The crucial question is: are these transient phases in Indian politics or will be here to stay at least for the foreseeable future?
The recent poll setbacks for TMC and DMK has sparked a rethink among the regional parties over their future political strategy and the shape of the INDIA alliance.
What has complicated matters for INDIA is that Congress and DMK, steadfast allies against BJP, have parted ways after the recent Tamil Nadu elections.
The collapse of the alliance between Congress and DMK came when Congress extended support to actor-politician C Joseph Vijay-led TVK forming a coalition government in Tamil Nadu after walking out of the DMK-led alliance. DMK hit back by accusing Congress of "stabbing in the back" and writing to the Speaker of Lok Sabha seeking not to sit with Congress MPs in the House.
What has further roiled INDIA is Rahul Gandhi's claim made on Friday last that no other party can defeat BJP and Narendra Modi and only Congress can do that. The leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha described the current political climate in India as an ideological battle between RSS and Congress.
By contrast, on several occasions in the past, Mamata Banerjee had said Congress cannot fight BJP effectively.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and RJD chief appear to disagree with Rahul and maintain that only regional parties can stop BJP. In fact, Akhilesh had a jibe at Congress snapping alliance with DMK saying "we do not abandon ally in its trying time."
Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the Congress-DMK rift to attack Congress. Terming Congress as "parasite," he said at an event in Bengaluru on 10 May that Congress has survived politically for years because of DMK's support but now "stabbed" the Dravidian party in its back when power equations changed.
