Back to the Cold War?
Are we really returning to the days of the Cold War or did we never really leave it behind? Are we shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar one?
For many people around the world, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an uncanny reminder of the Cold War days when for nearly four decades the world remained in the grips of numerous proxy wars between the United States and Soviet Union, as well as the threat of a nuclear holocaust.
Even the joint statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month made a number of references to the Cold War, both in comparing their current alliance as well as while criticising NATO.
So are we really returning to the days of the Cold War or did we never really leave it behind? Are we shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar one?
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To find out the answers The Business Standard curated what experts around the world, as well as in Bangladesh, are saying.
This is the beginning of a new form of Cold War
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has become a critical milestone in global history.
This marks the return of the Cold War in a hybrid form. I see the old Soviet, Afghan, or the Middle East syndromes returning. Strategic interests to control global financial and multilateral institutions have returned to the European theatre too. The new elements here are information technologies and technology based global financial and strategic architectures.
Kremlin's invasion also marks assaults against two fundamental bases of international politics – multilateralism (the United Nations or European Union) and the military alliances or the defense alliances such as NATO. While the world saw the Kyiv-Moscow trust deficit in the making, neither NATO nor the Kremlin came with a plausible solution to rebuild the relationship. Who is to be blamed then?
This critically implies that we are going to see a massive polarisation in terms of the effectiveness of multilateralism and the military alliances, amid the blurring space between geoeconomics and geopolitics.
That means Eurasia and the transatlantic landscape will see paradigm-altering changes in their political and foreign relations with the Kremlin, Washington, Brussels, and Beijing, each competing for balancing economic power, political ideologies, and military interests.
The Kremlin's invasion is a clear reminder of the sharp division between global consensus for protecting sovereignty versus national interests and rights to defend national security – be it perceived or faltered one. Moreover, the scar of the Kremlin's geographical revisionism will keep the smaller states in a state of alarm and often leave them with limited choice in choosing allies. Once again, the trap of "us vs. them" in international politics will force these countries to embark on pendulum swings between security and development.
Strategically speaking, the invasion was designed by the Kremlin to make the EU more polarized and NATO fall into political limbo. None of the members, so far, agreed to send troops, unlike the convenience they found in Kabul or Baghdad or even in Tripoli. As a result, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimate military resistance and rightful call often went unheard from his battle bunker. While weapons and arms will surely help Zelenskyy resist the Kremlin for a while, the human cost will continue to escalate. Tragedy will unfold if unchecked. The lives of the Ukrainians will be the collateral damage here.
At this point, the pressure of economic sanctions will partially cripple the Kremlin, no doubt, but the spill-over effect will push the EU and NATO to rethink their strategies constantly. That will undoubtedly call for reforms in the EU-NATO duo too. The Kremlin did its calculation.
How far Kremlin-Brussels-Washington will endure financial pressure is yet to be seen. But surely, the pressure will get a vent toward the Indo-Pacific too. And even at times, we get to hear that the Chinese will be a crucial player - to be or not to be with Vladimir Putin. But the Chinese have their compulsions, and so have the Americans. So then, the great power game will unfold further all the way to the Indo-Pacific.
Now the question is, will the western alliances remain committed to strengthening platforms such as the United Nations in the coming years instead of taking it as a political tool for granted, learning from the Kremlin's assault on European principles of sovereignty and human rights, or will they keep playing with it? The reform of the UN and NATO should go hand in hand.
The costs of the protracted invasion will be astronomical. The rest of the world will bear it. Hence, ceteris paribas, this invasion can potentially result in crises ranging from prolonged refugee situations to financial meltdown to inflation to energy shortage, even affecting the basics of manufacturing and the supply chain.
The sanctions are an essential tool in containing authoritarianism and illicit financing for the West. But again, the consequences of these sanctions for other countries have to be factored in. Protracted sanctions on Moscow can potentially bring political and economic pressures on domestic fronts for many countries.
So what we are also going to see is the intensification of militarisation on all sides, whereas the post-Covid world was supposed to focus on economic recovery.
That means the language and effects of war, conflict, and power will continue to dominate public life for a considerable time to come.
Not to forget, the tremor will be felt in countries like Bangladesh, which is in the upward trajectory of growth and which has become a regional key economic actor, deeply linked with the international financial system. It's the only country that stands economically stable in South Asia at the moment without any conflict baggage with its neighbours.
That means Bangladesh has a more significant stake in the Eurasian and the transatlantic theatres in terms of its trade, strategic relations, and, most importantly, foreign policy options.
In that case, Bangladesh will need to pursue a policy of relative neutrality that should focus on three critical determinants – enforced multilateralism and human rights, respect for sovereignty and avoidance of geographical revisionism, and reduction of collateral damage to minimise human and economic loss at any cost.
I would imagine, as per Article 25 of the Bangladesh Constitution, strong moral support for the Ukrainians on the verge of human catastrophe should be at the core. A massive loss of life as an aftermath of the Kremlin's invasion and ineffectiveness of the global community in protecting these lives will be a shameful tragedy.
Shahab Enam Khan, professor at the Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University
The feeling of the Cold War never went away
The Soviet Union was made up of countries like Romania, Georgia, Moldova, and even Ukraine was a part of it. And there was a balance of power between them and the US and other NATO countries which has changed since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakaway of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The cold war never ended. It is right that there was no direct warfare, but there was a balance of power during the cold war era. The world order was bipolar, once but now it has now become unipolar. Now the USA along with its western allies exert their influence.
The feeling of the cold war never went away. The feeling of being better, of being superior, has always been in their minds. The Western bloc did not feel comfortable with the Putin government. Putin had a desire that the countries of the Soviet Union would come together like in the past. He did not like the expansion of Nato eastward. Poland, which was once a country of the communist bloc, has become a member of Nato. The Baltic countries have also become members of Nato. Now, their only buffer is Ukraine.
If Ukraine becomes a member of Nato, Western influence will be at the doorsteps of Russia. There is an economic factor too. For this reason, Russia is not comfortable with Nato coming into Ukraine and influencing them.
Russia has been trying to be connected diplomatically with China. Russia has not had a good relationship with China historically. Russia is trying to form a relationship based on political and economic issues. They are also looking to China for moral and material support. Russia's economy will be disturbed. There are sanctions on them and sanctions will affect import and exports. We have seen the fallout of sanctions in Iran and Venezuela. Even the decision to block selected banks from SWIFT payments will impact Russia. Russia will seek help from its allies. Putin has visited Turkey and of course, China, to seek support.
As it stands, the West and the USA are on one side and Russia is on another. I am not sure where things head from here. Russia has put its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. Nukes are strategic deterrents, but if they intend to use these weapons the result would be devastating.
It is unclear whether the world order will be multipolar or unipolar in the future. Only time will tell.
Who thought one day the Communist bloc would break apart in such a manner and be fragmented? Who thought one day the Berlin Wall would fall and the two berlins would be reunited? Before 1989 and 1991, nobody thought about it. But it has happened. Because alliances develop based on time and circumstances.
With the passage of time and necessity, many types of relationships develop. And all of the relationships are centred on interest - be it political interest or economic interest.
Russia is not comfortable with Nato's presence in its backyard. They want renewed dominance over former Soviet countries. They don't want anyone bossing over them.
I believe that there is another game afoot here. Let's take for example the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, who were the beneficiaries? The arms-producing countries. They are the best beneficiaries of the war. Nato is providing arms to Ukraine. So weapon manufacturers are seeing good business.
Lieutenant General (retd.) Sabbir Ahmed, Bangladesh Army
The period between the Cold War and today was an interregnum
"The crisis today was not preordained or inevitable. We can trace current strains back to the Cold War, there are important continuities. If American, Russian and Chinese leaders had made "a whole slew" of different choices along the way, history could have taken a different and less troubled course. But it now looks like the period between the Cold War and today was an interregnum. We thought issues were resolved, but it's now clear that they weren't.
-Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at the Wilson Centre.
It was never about this conflict between capitalism and communism
"From today's vantage point, the root causes of the tensions between Washington and Moscow have not changed much since the Cold War. The assumption in Washington that the Cold War was over in 1989 was "unduly American-centric" and ignored Moscow's historic desire to be seen and respected by the US and Europe as a major power, regardless of ideology. It was never about this conflict between capitalism and communism. It was much more about challenging the hierarchy of global politics and climbing up the hierarchy at the expense of the United States. Gaining acceptance as an equal power, with its own sphere of influence, has been Moscow's goal — whether under Communist or post-Communist rule — dating to the summit in Yalta, in 1945, of the three Allied leaders in the Second World War."
-Sergey Radchenko, an international-relations expert at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
The Cold War was replaced by "hot peace." And it's getting hotter
"I don't think it would be accurate to say it was just an interregnum, a short little thing and then we're back to the way history always is. The old Cold War did end. It was followed by a "moment of opportunity" when Russia could have consolidated democratic governance at home and integrated into the liberal international order. Some of us worked on that project — and that project failed, in 2011, just before Putin reclaimed the Presidency and consolidated power. The Cold War was replaced by a period of "hot peace." And it may now be getting much hotter."
-Michael McFaul, a former US Ambassador to Russia, now at Stanford University
The ideological battles have been replaced by traditional geopolitical competition
"The one constant is Moscow's ambition. Putin has openly lamented the Soviet Union's collapse as a huge tragedy. His foreign policy has been really to try to reassemble as much of that entity as possible. But otherwise, the stakes between 1947 and 1989 were higher and the conflict "much more enveloping" globally. The Cold War was often considered a conflict between rival universalist ideologies. In 2022, Putin is instead seeking to undermine the belief of Western democracies in their own systems, but he's actually not trying to pretend that Russia has a superior system that would apply in other countries. The ideological battles of the Cold War have been replaced by more traditional geopolitical competition. Russia is simply trying to gain influence using the sort of limited military leverage that it has in different parts of the world. But that's not the Cold War. Russia today is far weaker than the Soviet empire was, especially as much of Eastern Europe is "pretty solidly aligned with the West."
-Francis Fukuyama, the author of "The End of History and the Last Man"
A Russia recreated in USSR's image risks sharing its fate
"Putin has succeeded in building a version of the country of his childhood, one that can act independently in the world, and one where dissent is controlled and the Kremlin's power unchallenged. But that is a double-edged sword, because the Soviet Union collapsed for a reason."
-Oliver Bullough, editor at the Institute of War and Peace Reporting
The US-led world order is fading away
"China believes that its rise to great-power status entitles it to a new role in world affairs — one that cannot be reconciled with unquestioned US dominance. The US-led world order is fading away . . . In its place will come a multipolar order."
-Yan Xuetong, dean of the school of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing
Russia should embrace it's hybrid mentality
"Russia's epic journey toward the West is over, marking an end to its repeated fruitless efforts to become a part of western civilisation. Russia should embrace the idea that it has "absorbed both east and west" and has a "hybrid mentality."
-Vladislav Surkov, former advisor to Putin
Beijing is aiming for a "radically transformed international order"
"Beijing is aiming for a "radically transformed international order" in which the US is, in essence, pushed out of the Pacific and becomes merely an Atlantic power. Since the Indo-Pacific is now the core of the global economy, that would essentially leave China as "number one."
-Elizabeth Economy, author of a new book called The World According to China
Slogans of democracy versus socialism have lost their contentious nature
"The unfolding new contest between Russia and the USA will not be, contests in military might or clashing political ideologies. The twentieth-century slogans of free enterprise and democracy versus socialism have lost their contentious nature as most nations have adopted market economies."
-Acahala Moulik, Indian writer and former bureaucrat serving as Education Secretary to the Government of India
From Cold War to Ukraine invasion: A Timeline
Yalta Conference (4-11 February 1945): In the Yalta Conference in Crimea, American president Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin make plans for postwar Europe, including the partitioning of Germany and Berlin.
Potsdam Conference (17 July - 2 August 1945): Following World War II, world leaders divide Germany and Berlin into four Occupation zones. The zones in the west would be controlled by Britain, France and the United States, and the eastern zone would be controlled by the Soviet Union. However, relations soon deteriorate between Russia and the West resulting in tensions.
Iron Curtain (5 March 1946): In his 'Sinews of Peace' speech, Winston Churchill declares "an Iron Curtain has descended across the Continent" and the Cold War grew as communist revolutions spread across China, Asia and the Middle and Near East.
Nuclear Arms Race (1949) - Soviets explode their first nuclear bomb; Cold War rivals begin nuclear arms race.
Korean War (1950s) - On 25 June 1950, North Korean forces, the Korean People's Army, backed by China and the Soviet Union, crossed the 38th parallel into South Korea. The United Nations, with the United States backed South Korea.
The Warsaw Pact (May 14, 1955) - The Soviet Union and seven Soviet satellite states formed the Warsaw Pact as a defence treaty in response to the integration of West Germany into NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) earlier in the year.
Cuban Missile Crisis (October 1962): The 13-day Cuban Missile Crisis leads Americans to fear nuclear war is at hand with the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev eventually agrees to remove the missiles, while President John F. Kennedy agrees to not invade Cuba and remove US missiles from Turkey.
Vietnam War (1954–1975) - A protracted conflict that pitted the communist government of North Vietnam and its allies in South Vietnam, known as the Viet Cong, against the government of South Vietnam and its principal ally, the United States. The war is widely considered to be a Cold War-era proxy war.
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979): The Soviet Union launches an occupation of Afghanistan. As a result efforts to rein in Cold War tensions through US-Soviet detente collapse.
Perestroika, Glasnost (1985): Mikhail Gorbachev is elected general secretary of the Communist Party, and, thus, effectively Russia's leader. His reform efforts include perestroika (restructuring the Russian economy), glasnost (greater openness) and summit talks with US President Ronald Reagan to end the Cold War.
Fall of the Berlin Wall (9 November 1989) - Massive protests in East Berlin prompted the East German government and the Soviet Union to open the border between East and West Berlin. That evening, both East and West Berliners tore down the wall and freely passed through the checkpoints in celebration.
Death of the Soviet Union (1991): - Most Soviet republics withdraw from the Soviet Union when Mikhail Gorbachev resigned his post on December 25. The next day, the USSR ceased to exist, and Boris Yeltsin, president of Russia, now presided over an independent state. Warsaw Pact is dissolved. Yeltsin begins lifting Communist-imposed price controls and reforms, and, in 1993, signs the START II treaty, pledging nuclear arms cuts.
Putin ascends to power (1999): Yeltsin resigns, naming former KGB agent Vladimir Putin, his prime minister, as acting president. The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland become the first of the Ex-members of the Warsaw Pact to join NATO.
Putin mounts a comeback (2000-2004): Putin takes over the reins of a nation that is still reeling from the aftershocks of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1998 financial crisis. The payment system and most of the major banks has collapsed as a result of hyperinflation and business is done on barter. GDP growth has been negative for a decade.
By 2000 oil prices begin to recover from their low of $10 per barrel and over the next decade or so climb inexorably to about $150. With the inflow of petrodollars, Putin lays the foundation of modern Russia.
Putin consolidates power (2004-2012:) Vladimir Putin is reelected in a landslide in 2004. Because of term limits, he left office in 2008, when his protege Dmitry Medvedev was elected and served as his prime minister. Putin was then reelected as president in 2012.
NATO Rush (29 March 2004): Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia officially became members of NATO, making it the largest wave of enlargement in NATO history.
Crimean crisis (2014-2015) — Russia invades and then annexes the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Two secessionist regions, the Donetsk People's Republic and the neighbouring Luhansk People's Republic, break off from Ukraine. Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany sign a series of cease-fire agreements known as the Minsk Accords.
Ukraine crisis (2021-2022) — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine's drift toward the United States and its allies. Putin demands "security guarantees," including an assurance by NATO that Ukraine will never join the group and that the alliance pulls back troops stationed in countries that joined after 1997.
Russo-Ukrainian War (24 February 2022): Russia invades Ukraine
