Boro season begins amid fertiliser supply crunch, price hike worries

Infographic: TBS

Farmers are facing rising fertiliser prices amid a reported supply shortage as the Boro season, the country's largest rice-growing period, begins.

Full-scale Boro paddy cultivation is set to begin in the first week of February. Fertiliser demand for this season is high but farmers report paying Tk3-8 more per kg than the government-fixed rates.

The official prices for urea and TSP are Tk27 per kg, DAP Tk21, and MOP Tk20. 

However, farmers said they have to pay Tk28-32 for urea, Tk30-35 for TSP, Tk25-35 for DAP, and Tk25-30 for MOP per kg.

While dealers attribute the higher prices to a supply crunch, farmers claim the dealers are exploiting the situation by creating an artificial crisis.

In districts like Lakshmipur, Rajshahi, and Naogaon, reports indicate that some dealers are refusing to sell with a cash memo.

Md Manik, a farmer from Mirikpur in Lakshmipur sadar upazila, said that he purchased urea at Tk30, MOP at Tk25, and TSP and DAP at Tk35 last week. "Dealers don't provide cash memos, and I can't buy fertilizer at the official price. I end up paying Tk5-10 more per kg," he told TBS.

Abdul Majed, a fertiliser sub-dealer from the same area, said that the main reason for the high prices is the insufficient supply as per demand. "Large dealers are taking advantage of this by creating an artificial shortage and selling at inflated prices to sub-dealers."

Fertiliser is distributed from Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) and Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) to dealers and sub-dealers, with stock data updated by the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE). 

As of 16 January data, urea stocks at the dealer level are 1.75 lakh tonnes, up from 1.65 lakh tonnes last year. 

However, TSP, DAP, and MOP stocks have decreased by 21%, 34%, and 19%, respectively. Currently, TSP stocks stand at 45,000 tonnes, DAP at 83,000 tonnes, and MOP at 60,000 tonnes, compared to last year's 57,000 tonnes, 1.26 lakh tonnes, and 74,000 tonnes.

Agriculture officials admitted that the fertiliser supply, except urea, in Lakshmipur district is insufficient to meet demand.

Sohel Md Shamsuddin Firoz, deputy director of Lakshmipur District DAE, said, "Urea is not in short supply but there is a shortage of non-urea fertilisers, which is expected to be addressed in the coming days."

According to DAE data, only 537 tonnes of DAP have been received against a demand of 2,400 tonnes, 1,297 tonnes of MOP against a demand of 2,770 tonnes, and 1,159 tonnes of TSP against a demand of 3,480 tonnes.

The situation in other districts is similar to Lakshmipur. 

In Rajshahi's open market, urea is being sold at Tk28 per kg, TSP at Tk34, DAP at Tk30-32, and MOP at Tk26. 

Rashedullah, a farmer of Durgapur in Rajshahi, said, "When you try to buy fertiliser at official rates, they [sellers] claim it's out of stock. But if you're willing to pay a higher price, they'll sell it to you. It is an artificial shortage they've created."

Habibur Rahman, a farmer from West Durgapur in Naogaon, intends to cultivate Boro paddy on 15 decimals of land. 

He told TBS, "Urea is now Tk32 per kg. DAP and MOP are being sold at a higher price of Tk5-6. When you ask the dealers, they say there is a shortage."

Farmers in Dumuria upazila of Khulna reported that they are buying TSP at Tk30-35, urea at Tk30-32, MOP at Tk25-30 and DAP at Tk-25-30 per kg.

Abu Noman Faruq Ahmmed, a Professor at the Department of Plant Pathology at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, told TBS, "One reason for the current fertiliser crisis is the increased cultivation of potatoes and onions compared to previous years. These crops require more fertiliser, which may have created some strain on the stock. The government should establish a forecasting wing to accurately assess demand based on evolving conditions."

What is the total stock of fertilisers?

Urea fertiliser is supplied through local production by the BCIC under the Ministry of Industries, as well as imports.

Non-urea fertilisers — TSP, DAP, and MOP — are supplied by the BADC under the Ministry of Agriculture, with additional supply from private importers.

Sources from the Ministry of Agriculture said that safety stocks should include 5 lakh tonnes of urea, 3 lakh tonnes of DAP, and 2 lakh tonnes each of TSP and MOP.

Ministry data shows that as of 16 January, the total stock of urea, including safety stocks, is 7.94 lakh tonnes. Additionally, the stock levels are as follows: TSP 1.07 lakh tonnes, DAP 1 lakh tonnes, and MOP 2.97 lakh tonnes—indicating that TSP and DAP are below the safe stock levels.

The annual demand for urea fertiliser is approximately 27 lakh tonnes, TSP 7.5 lakh tonnes, DAP 15 lakh tonnes, and MOP 9.5 lakh tonnes. The highest demand occurs in January and February due to the fertilizer needs of Boro paddy and Rabi season crops like potatoes, and onions.

According to the ministry, January's demand is 4.19 lakh tonnes of urea, 1.15 lakh tonnes of TSP, 2.68 lakh tonnes of DAP, and 1.45 lakh tonnes of MOP. In February, demand will rise to 4.39 lakh tonnes of urea, 80,000 tonnes of TSP, 1.44 lakh tonnes of DAP, and 65,000 tonnes of MOP.

Will the supply shortage worsen?

Experts said February will see the highest fertiliser demand and recommend ensuring adequate stock, supply, and price control during this period.

Former agriculture secretary Anwar Faruk told TBS, "The interim government has not been able to streamline fertiliser management. There is a crisis at the dealer level."

"Fertiliser demand peaks during the Boro season, yet farmers are still forced to buy it at inflated prices. Import issues arose due to the inability to open LCs in the last six months of the previous government, and its effects are still being felt. The government must be more proactive to ensure adequate supply," he added. 

However, Agriculture Ministry Secretary Dr Mohammad Emdad Ullah Mian assured TBS, "There will be no fertiliser crisis until February. With current stocks, supply will remain stable. Fertiliser is regularly arriving and being distributed. Boro cultivation has already started, and I can confidently say there will be no shortage."

Regarding price hikes, he added, "We are monitoring the situation closely. If specific complaints arise, we will take appropriate action. While there are some challenges, we are addressing them."

[TBS correspondents for Bogura, Lakshmipur, Rajshahi and Khulna contributed to this story]