US stock futures, dollar surge as markets scent Trump win

US stock futures and the dollar surged in Asia on Wednesday as investors wagered Republican Donald Trump could win the US presidential election, though officially the race remained too close to call.

Trump took the early lead over Democrat Kamala Harris as solid Republican-leaning states reported first, but critical battleground races, in the handful of states likely to decide the election, were unlikely to be called for some time yet.

Treasury yields shot to four-month highs as some betting sites heavily favoured Trump, while The New York Time's closely-watched swingometer projected an 89% chance of him winning.

Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than Harris' centre-left policies.

Trump's proposals would also tend to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far US interest rates might ultimately be lowered.

Thus while markets were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. , futures for next year eased into the red with December down 9 ticks.

"As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes jumped to a four-month high of 4.471%, from 4.279%, breaking last week's top of 4.388%. Two-year yields climbed to 4.291%, from 4.189% late in New York.

"If we look at the long end of the curve, that reflects the fact that both candidates are not exactly fiscal conservatives, they're both willing to use the fiscal printing press," said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions.

"The biggest issue is if Trump or Harris are going to get full mandates," he added. "If they don't get blue or red sweeps, it limits the fiscal damage, and that's the best outcome for bondholders."

YUAN BUCKLES

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both climbed 1.3% as Wall Street looked forward to promised tax cuts and less corporate regulation.

European stocks were less enthused as Trump's tariff policies, if enacted, could ignite a global trade war and threaten EU exports.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.7%, while DAX futures dropped 0.5% and FTSE futures turned flat.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.8%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 2.3% as the yen slid. [.N[]

In currency markets, the dollar index surged 1.5% to 104.97 , the biggest daily rise since early 2023. The euro slid 1.5% to $1.0772 , falling back from a one-month top of $1.0937 struck overnight.

The dollar jumped 1.5% on the Japanese yen to 153.94 yen , and further away from a low of 151.34.

Bitcoin climbed as much as 8.54% to reach a record $75,060. Trump is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.

The dollar gained 1.0% on the offshore yuan to 7.1726 yuan, sparking reports Chinese banks were selling dollars to slow the yuan's decline.

China is seen on the front line of tariff risk, and its currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar around record highs.

Chinese stock markets have surged to almost one-month highs as investors expect a meeting of top policymakers in Beijing this week to approve local government debt refinancing and spending. Chinese blue chips lost early gains to turn flat.

Gold prices were choppy with a dip of 0.3% to $2,734 an ounce , off a recent record peak of 2,790.15.

The sharp rise in the dollar pressured oil prices, and other commodities, as it makes them more expensive when buying in other currencies.

US crude shed 66 cents to $71.33 per barrel, while Brent fell 76 cents to $74.76.