Rubio pick signals a Trump China policy that could go beyond tariffs

With his nomination of China hardliner Marco Rubio for secretary of state, US President-elect Donald Trump has signalled his policy toward Beijing could go beyond his focus on tariffs and trade to a more hawkish stance towards China as the United States' top strategic rival.

Rubio's selection on Wednesday came along with other cabinet picks that might upset China, such as Representative Mike Waltz as national security adviser and John Ratcliffe to lead the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Taken together, the choices suggest Trump wants to upend the Biden administration's approach of "managing competition" with Beijing on issues ranging from support for Taiwan to China's role in the US fentanyl crisis.

Republicans have criticised the Biden position as too conciliatory.

Rubio "believes in his heart that China is an enemy of the United States," said David Firestein, a former US diplomat with expertise on China.

"That's going to colour everything he does with respect to China," said Firestein, adding that Rubio's belief in existential zero-sum competition with China would "raise the decibel level" of US-China relations.

As secretary of state, Rubio would help carry out, not set, Trump's foreign policy, but his selection will put a China antagonist with significant foreign policy experience at the centre of his cabinet debates.

Trump has pledged to end China's most-favoured-nation trading status and slap tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% - much higher than those imposed during his first term.

Rubio is almost certain to be confirmed by the US Senate, where he is a senior member of both the foreign relations and intelligence committees.

The staunchly anti-communist Cuban-Americans support for Hong Kong democracy protesters earned him Chinese sanctions in 2020.

It would be the first time China would have active travel restrictions on a US secretary of state, presenting an early test of how Beijing might engage with the new Trump administration.

For his part, Rubio has been an advocate for US visa sanctions on Chinese officials, and pushed the State Department to bar Hong Kong's chief executive, John Lee, from travelling to San Francisco for the 2023 APEC summit.

China's embassy in Washington did not comment on the Rubio sanctions or his nomination, but spokesperson Liu Pengyu said Beijing looked forward to working with the new administration to promote ties "in a stable, healthy and sustainable direction."

FOCUS ON HUMAN RIGHTS

China's record on human rights, historically a contentious issue between the countries, has been a focus for Rubio.

He co-sponsored the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, giving the US government a new tool to bar Chinese imports over concerns of rights abuses of Muslim minorities in China, claims that enrage Beijing.

Hong Kong activists see Rubio, who has sponsored legislation including the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, as a champion of their cause.

"We're obviously really excited and look forward to working with him on these issues," said Frances Hui, an activist in Washington with the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation for whose arrest China has offered a bounty.

Rubio has also proposed a bill now being considered to let the Secretary of State strip certification from Hong Kong's economic and trade offices in the United States.

He has argued that the near complete erosion of the Chinese financial hub's autonomy from Beijing means it does not merit separate government privileges.

It is unclear what leeway Trump, who has praised China's leader Xi Jinping at times, would give his new top diplomat to adopt restrictions on China, particularly those clashing with other goals of his administration.

"(Trump's foreign policy) lineup is conspicuously hawkish on China, but can be counted on to follow the leader if he shifts from confrontation with Beijing to the art of the deal," said Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

During Trump's first term, the United States and China struck a trade deal after a series of tit-for-tat tariffs, but many analysts say China has not lived up to its terms.

EXPORT CONTROLS AND TAIWAN SUPPORT

Rubio has also focused on China as a perceived threat to national security.

He has led calls to blacklist Chinese industrial battery company CATL, revoke capital gains tax rates for US companies investing in China, tighten export restrictions on US technology to China, and end tariff loopholes for small packages shipped from China, many used to carry fentanyl precursor chemicals.

Perhaps most grating to Beijing is Rubio's full-throated support for Taiwan, the democratically-governed island China claims as its own, including calls for a free trade deal and unfettered interaction between US officials and Taiwan counterparts.

Already, analysts are anticipating Taiwan will make large and early new arms purchases after Trump takes office, calls likely to fall on receptive ears at Rubio's State Department, which reviews and approves foreign weapons sales.

During his first term, Trump approved more than $18 billion in arms sales for Taiwan, compared to Biden's $7.7 billion.

Some analysts believe Beijing may try to sidestep Rubio and seek engagement directly between Xi and Trump, or with other senior US officials.

"If that doesn't work, then I think we're going to get into a much more regular escalation of a bad relationship," said Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at London's School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)