Final phase of Myanmar's election underway, military-backed party set to win

Highlights:

• Junta-backed USDP has huge lead from first two rounds
• ASEAN will not endorse election, Malaysia says
• No signs of military intent to back away from politics
• Junta has hailed election as a success so far

Polling stations in Myanmar opened on Sunday for the final round of a general election in the war-torn country, with a military-backed party set to win and the junta chief expected to take on a political role after the widely criticised election.

The previous two phases of the election – held on 28 December and 11 January – have been marked by low voter turnout of around 55%, well below the turnout of about 70% recorded in Myanmar's 2020 and 2015 general elections.

Voters in 60 townships will cast their ballots, including in the major cities of Yangon and Mandalay, amid a civil war triggered by a coup that brought the military to power.

Although the United Nations, some Western governments and rights groups have derided the polls as a sham exercise to perpetuate the military's hold, the ruling junta has vowed it will transfer power to a new government, likely in April.

The military took control of the impoverished Southeast Asian nation in a dawn coup on 1 February 2021, ousting an elected civilian government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

The 80-year-old politician remains in detention and, like several other opposition groups, her National League for Democracy has been dissolved by the junta, tilting the political playing field in favour of the military-backed party that is leading the polls.

Malaysia, which last year chaired the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, on Tuesday said the bloc had rejected an offer from Myanmar to send poll observers and would not endorse the election.

"Rather than resolving a crisis now in its fifth year, the vote is more likely to reinforce the military's hold on power, with little prospect of restoring domestic legitimacy or improving the country's standing with Western partners," said Kaho Yu, Principal Asia Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Fighting has continued through the election campaign and earlier voting in many parts of Myanmar, including air strikes around civilian areas in the border states of Rakhine, Shan and Kayin.

Military transition

So far, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has secured 193 out of 209 seats in the lower house and 52 out of 78 seats in the upper house, according to the election commission, leaving the party in a dominant position.

The USDP, which was formed in 2010 and governed the country for five years following the end of a previous military government, is chaired by a retired brigadier general and packed with other former high-ranking officers.

Myanmar's military, which has ruled the country for five of the past six decades, does not appear to have any real intention of withdrawing from its political leadership role.

"Regardless of how successive governments may change over time, Tatmadaw remains a steadfast institution that will continue to shoulder the responsibilities of national defence and security," said junta leader Min Aung Hlaing last week, referring to the Burmese term for the military.

The 69-year-old general has indicated he is considering appointing a successor as armed forces chief and will likely move into a fully political role, Reuters has reported.

While the junta has portrayed the election as a success despite the low turnout, residents of Myanmar's biggest cities have told Reuters of an atmosphere of fear, where many felt compelled to vote to avoid potential arrest or retribution.

The military has insisted the election is free of coercion and has public backing.

On the back of an election protection law, the junta has charged over 400 people for criticising and obstructing the election process, according to state media.