Weapons experts dispute US account of deadly Lamerd strike

Multiple weapons experts are disputing the United States' account of a deadly strike in Lamerd, Iran, that occurred on the opening day of a conflict referred to as Operation Epic Fury, with independent analysts challenging Washington's assertion that the blast was caused by a malfunctioning Iranian missile.

US Central Command (Centcom) has denied responsibility for the strike. US Navy Capt Tim Hawkins said, "After looking into the reports, US Central Command has confirmed the accusations are false." He added, "US forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury."

Centcom also said, "US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighbouring countries more than 300 times." US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth separately said US forces "never target civilian targets."

However, analysts from firms including Janes and McKenzie Intelligence said the munition involved was more consistent with a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) than an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile, reports the BBC.

The strike killed 21 people, including four children, according to the information provided.

The dispute centres on technical and visual evidence from verified CCTV footage of the incident. Centcom's Hawkins said, "The munition depicted in the video appears to be twice as long, consistent with the dimensions and silhouette of an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile." Independent analysts, however, pointed to features they say are inconsistent with that assessment.

Amael Kotlarski of Janes said that regarding the Hoveyzeh's design features, "no matter the angle from which the missile is viewed from, the wings and the turbo jet would be visible. None of that is clearly distinguishable from the footage." He also said, "To put it simply, the warhead behaviour and effect from the Lamerd strike displays a level of technical sophistication that we have not observed, so far, from any Iranian cruise or ballistic missile."

Trevor Ball of Bellingcat said the missile's length was "much more consistent with the PrSM" than a Hoveyzeh, adding that "The Hoveyzeh silhouette is also much different, with wings and a visible engine depending on angle."

Analysts also pointed to the presence of "canard fins" visible in the footage, which they say are associated with the PrSM and not present on the Hoveyzeh. N R Jenzen Jones of Armament Research Services said that despite identification challenges, the munition "appears to be correctly aligned for the terminal phase of its flight."

Experts also noted that the munition in the footage appeared intact and properly aligned in the final phase of its trajectory, contradicting the assertion that it had malfunctioned.

Further analysis focused on the nature of the explosion, which occurred mid-air. Analysts described the blast as an airburst designed to disperse fragments over a wide area. A McKenzie Intelligence analyst said, "Those pock marks are witness marks of a fragmentation munition." Kotlarski also said the warhead effects indicated a level of sophistication not seen in Iranian systems.

CCTV footage also indicated three separate strikes in Lamerd, hitting a sports hall, a residential area and a location near an educational centre. Addressing this pattern, a McKenzie Intelligence analyst said, "While it is feasible that an Iranian cruise missile could malfunction, it is a bit beyond credulity to have a number of them fail above the same location at the same time."

According to the information provided, the intended target may have been an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound located adjacent to the sports hall. Satellite imagery from 9 March showed the base remained undamaged while surrounding civilian areas were hit.

Although Centcom said no US strikes occurred within 30 miles of Lamerd, a US Department of Defence map titled "First 100 hours" marked Lamerd as a site of US-Israeli strikes.

Analysts said the airburst feature was a key factor in identifying the weapon, describing it as a capability associated with advanced munitions. Verified footage showed the munition detonating above a residential area before impact, which experts said suggested the explosion was intentional rather than the result of a malfunction.

Intelligence and weapons experts, including those from Janes and McKenzie Intelligence, concluded that the mid-air explosion and observed characteristics were more consistent with the PrSM's design than with any Iranian cruise missile currently in service.