US spy agencies examine how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory

Highlights

• US intelligence consider Iran's likely response to Trump declaring victory, sources say
• Military options remain, but large-scale escalation seen as less likely by officials
• Political pressure mounts on Trump as war remains unpopular

US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump were to declare a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war that has killed thousands and become a political liability for the White House, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter said.

The intelligence community is analysing the question along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump potentially pulling back from a conflict that some officials and advisers worry could contribute to deep Republican losses at the midterm elections later this year, according to the sources.

While no decision has been made - and Trump could easily ramp back up military operations - a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even as it could leave behind an emboldened Iran that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programmes and threaten US allies in the region.

The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

It is not clear when the intelligence community would complete its work, but it has previously analysed the likely reaction of Iran's leaders to a US declaration of victory.

In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the US drew down its forces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a win, one of the sources said.

If Trump instead said the US had won but maintained a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily lead to the end of the war, the source said.

"CIA is not familiar with the intelligence community's reported assessment," Liz Lyons, director of the agency's office of public affairs, said in a statement after the publication of this story. The CIA declined to answer Reuters' specific questions about its current work on Iran.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US is still engaging with the Iranians on negotiations and would "not be rushed into making a bad deal."

"The president will only enter into an agreement that puts US national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon," she said.

High political costs

Opinion polls show the war is overwhelmingly unpopular with Americans. Only 26% of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign has been worth the costs, and only 25% said it has made the US safer.

Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days have described Trump as keenly aware of the political price being paid by him and his party.

Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, a flurry of diplomacy has failed to fully open the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway.

Choking off the shipping that carries about 20% of the world's crude oil has driven up energy costs worldwide and the price at US gasoline pumps. Iran's ability to disrupt commerce gives it powerful leverage against the United States and its allies.

A decision to scale back the US military presence in the region, paired with a mutual lifting of the blockade, would eventually bring down gasoline prices.

So far, however, the two sides appear far from any agreement.

Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday that it would take "too much time" and that if Iran wanted to talk "all they had to do was call."

Military options remain on table

Various military options remain formally on the table, with renewed airstrikes on Iran's military and political leaders among them, according to a separate person familiar with administration dynamics.

One of the US officials and another person familiar with the discussions said, however, that the most ambitious of those options - such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland - appear less likely than they did a few weeks ago.

A White House official described the domestic pressure on the president to wrap up the war as "enormous."

One of the sources said Iran has taken advantage of the ongoing ceasefire to dig out launchers, munitions, drones and other materiel that had been buried by US and Israeli bombing in the opening weeks of the conflict.

As a result, the tactical costs of resuming full-scale war are arguably higher now than they were in the initial days of the ceasefire, which began on 8 April.