Trump frames Iran campaign as regime change without 'boots on the ground'

US President Donald Trump appears to be pursuing the collapse of Iran's ruling system following a major US-Israeli bombing campaign, even as he publicly frames the objective as securing "freedom for the people," according to analysts and lawmakers.

The conflict has escalated rapidly since the launch of the air campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and more than 1,000 others, triggering retaliatory strikes by Iran and its regional allies across the Middle East, says Al Jazeera.

Speaking about the goal of the war, Trump said he wants "freedom for the people." Following the initial strikes, he told Iranians their "moment of freedom" is at hand and instructed them: "When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take."

The president has ruled out deploying American "boots on the ground," signaling that he hopes to achieve political change through air power while avoiding what he has called a "forever war." He has said the mission is "ahead of schedule," while acknowledging it could last four to five weeks or "far longer."

Senior administration officials have outlined narrower military objectives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth have focused on dismantling Iran's nuclear and drone programs, as well as its navy.

Hegseth said, "We're ensuring the mission gets accomplished, but we are very clear-eyed... about the foolish policies of the past that recklessly pulled us into things that were not tethered to actual, clear objectives."

Skepticism over air power

Analysts and military experts have expressed doubt that regime change can be achieved through air power alone.

Matthew Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, said, "You can damage buildings; you can damage the regime, but we don't have examples of when air power alone has achieved regime change." Referring to the administration's public case for war, he added, "They didn't bother to build any case for why this war was necessary... So all we have is just this killing."

Even in the 2011 NATO-led campaign in Libya, often cited as an example of successful intervention, local rebels led the ground offensive that ultimately removed Muammar Gaddafi, reports Al Jazeera.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, questioned the clarity of the administration's strategy. "What is this all for? What are we trying to achieve? The administration certainly has not done itself any favours in the fact that they don't seem to have a consistent narrative or message on this," she said.

She described achieving regime change through air power alone as "difficult, if not impossible," and observed that Trump "seems to have become enamoured with air power and what he thinks it can achieve."

Analysts note there is currently no meaningful internal force within Iran capable of mounting a sustained challenge to the ruling system.

Domestic opposition

In Washington, the conflict has deepened political divisions. Public opinion polls suggest only about 25% of Americans support the military action.

Following a classified briefing, Senator Elizabeth Warren warned, "It is so much worse than you thought. You are right to be worried." She added, "The Trump administration has no plan in Iran. This illegal war is based on lies, and it was launched without any imminent threat to our nation."

Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed concern about the potential for escalation, stating, "I am more fearful than ever after this briefing that we may be putting boots on the ground and that troops from the United States may be necessary to accomplish objectives that the administration seems to have."

Despite these concerns, the US Senate failed to pass resolutions aimed at limiting the president's war powers.

Regional escalation

The conflict has spread beyond Iran's borders.

Iran has launched missiles and drones at US assets, energy infrastructure and civilian targets in Gulf countries, including reported strikes on a base in Qatar and the US consulate in Dubai. Iran-aligned groups in Iraq have attacked US-affiliated targets, while Hezbollah has entered the conflict amid reports that Israel may be planning an invasion of southern Lebanon.

Iranian naval vessels have been engaged as far away as Sri Lanka, and warnings have emerged of "terrorist movements" along the Iranian-Iraqi border.

The widening hostilities have raised security concerns in Europe. Cyprus has received military assistance from the European Union, and debris from NATO missile interceptions has reportedly landed in Turkey.

Some administration allies have expressed confidence that the conflict will ultimately reshape the region. Senator Lindsey Graham wrote, "We are not there yet but, in my view, it's not if this terrorist regime falls in Iran — it is only a matter of when." He described the potential outcome as a "gateway to peace" leading to a "new level of prosperity and security."

Beyond military and political ramifications, officials have warned that a potential "sports cold war" could disrupt the upcoming World Cup.

Despite the administration's assurances that the operation will not become a "forever war," analysts say the absence of clearly defined political objectives and a detailed end state makes it difficult to assess how or when the conflict might conclude.