Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG site may not fully resume before August

Qatar's Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, may not return to full operations until at least the end of August, with a significant portion of its capacity expected to remain offline for years, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The disruption follows Iranian missile strikes last month that damaged key parts of the complex, which supplies roughly one-fifth of the world's LNG. The strikes hit Trains 4 and 6, removing around 12.8 million tonnes per year (mtpa) of capacity—about 17% of Qatar's LNG exports.

Wood Mackenzie said QatarEnergy is unlikely to restart all 12 operable trains before late August, even if partial operations resume in May, reports The National.

Sustained damage and long recovery

The damage has had long-term implications. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on contracts with major buyers in China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. Chief Executive Saad Al Kaabi estimated annual losses at around $20 billion, with repairs likely to take three to five years.

A major challenge lies in replacing specialised gas turbines needed to power refrigeration compressors. Only three manufacturers globally produce such equipment, with delivery timelines ranging from two to four years.

The Ras Laffan complex is divided into North and South sites. While the North site, with a capacity of 41 mtpa, could resume operations relatively quickly, the South site – directly hit in the strikes – has seen its capacity reduced from 36 mtpa to 24 mtpa after two trains were written off.

Satellite imagery suggests some parts of the North site remain operational, raising hopes for a partial restart in the near term.

Fragile recovery despite ceasefire

Although a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was agreed on 8 April, analysts warn that recovery remains uncertain.

"The ceasefire means it may be possible for the 14 trapped laden LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit the Strait of Hormuz and provide some relief to the global gas market," said Tom Marzec-Manser of Wood Mackenzie.

Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years

"But for there to be a real structural change in supply, the Ras Laffan site in Qatar would need to restart its 12 operable trains. It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire, however," he added.

Qatar is reportedly mobilising engineers ahead of a phased restart, while Japan's Chiyoda is considering resuming construction work on the North Field expansion project.

Shipping disruptions and risky transit

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Just days before the ceasefire, two Qatari LNG tankers—Rasheeda and Al Daayen—aborted attempts to cross the strait after failing to secure clearance from Iranian authorities.

Iran currently allows only vessels from "friendly" nations such as China, India, Pakistan and Russia to pass through the waterway. Qatar has yet to be included on that list.

Despite the disruption, some LNG cargoes have continued to move, including shipments to Kuwait during the conflict.

Global supply crunch

The outage is already straining global LNG markets, particularly in Asia, which receives about 80% of Qatar's exports. Major buyers such as China, South Korea, India and Pakistan are closely monitoring the situation.

QatarEnergy stops LNG production after attacks on its facilities; gas prices soar

South Asia has begun to feel the impact. India has cut gas supplies to industries, Pakistan has introduced compressed workweeks and school closures, and Bangladesh has reduced government fuel allocations by 30% and shifted some school activities online.

To fill the gap, several countries are turning to discounted Russian LNG, including supplies from the Arctic LNG 2 project, often routed through intermediaries. Some buyers, including Japan, have also reverted to coal to manage the shortfall.